I was going to start today’s blog post with some recent anecdotes about a rental listing, but then something happened; something that happens quite often when I write.

I realized those anecdotes would be a blog post unto themselves.

Truth be told, I started writing it!  But by the time I had topped 1,000 words, I realized this isn’t an “introduction” anymore, but rather it would make for some solid reading on its own.

That type of blog post comes with the risk of eliciting an, “Oh David, cry me a river,” type of response, but will underscore just how troublesome the process of listing and showing a property for rent is these days in downtown Toronto, let alone actually securing a quality tenant.

We’ll save that blog post for next week, but perhaps a teaser.  Ask me, “How many times did an agent walk off with the keys at your last rental listing?”

I’ll give you a hint: it’s more than one.  And zero is too many, since we shouldn’t even be having the conversation…

Nevertheless, the rental market is moving along quite well in the downtown core.

The “word on the street” is that rental prices are down, and maybe they are – in the GTA as a whole, in particular neighbourhoods, or on paper.  But in practice, it’s not what I’m seeing.

Case in point: a client of mine recently had a tenant provide him with notice to vacate, and his email said to me, “I know that rents are down, so maybe we list for $1,995 per month, considering we leased this unit to the current tenant in June of 2024 for $2,150 per month.”

I think…..not.

I told my client, “Let’s list at $2,150 per month and see how it goes.  I’m just not seeing the price sensitivity here.  If we don’t find a tenant in the first thirty days, we can always adjust the price and still secure a tenant in time to avoid a vacancy.”

We ended up receiving five offers on the condo and securing a tenant for $2,150 per month, but we actually turned down a tenant who offered $2,200 per month because he or she wasn’t as desirable.  That’s smart landlording; don’t be greedy, and find your perfect tenant profile.

Suffice it to say, I’m not seeing a decline in rents at the moment, even if this is what the stats are showing.

Speaking of those stats…

Rentals.ca is my go-to for Toronto rental data, which is saying something, considering I have all of TRREB’s data at my fingertips.  But alas, they don’t provide us with the stats that this third-party website does, so here we go…

According to Rentals.ca, and splashed across the top of their National Rent Report page is an eye-catching headline:

Canadian rents in August declined for the 11th straight month.

You don’t say!

Alright, well, this is the Toronto Realty Blog, so let’s get more specific.

According to Rentals.ca, rents in the province of Ontario are down 2.6% in September, year-over-year.

Talk to me, Goose.  What’s happening closer to home?

Well, in the City of Toronto, rents are down 3.3%

In the words of Ace Ventura, “Reeee-heeee-heeeeally?”

I suppose it really depends on who you speak to, on what day, and in what area, because in my experience throughout 2025, I haven’t seen rents on the decline.  Of course, I work primarily in the 416, and most of our rental listings are in the central core.

When I look at the listings we’ve had this year, only two were leased for under the list price.  Two were leased for over the list price, and I actually had multiple offers on a $15,000 per month lease.

So with all that said, let’s take a look at the Q3 rental market statistics in the downtown core, keeping in mind that these are for condominiums.

First, let’s look at lease listings:

After starting the year in a somewhat “balanced” market, with year-over-year lease listings essentially flat in Q1, we saw this increase significantly in Q2.

As I have detailed in prior blog posts, I believe this is because so many would-be condo sellers who tried to sell their properties in Q1 ended up switching gears and leasing them instead during Q2.

But look what happened in Q3!

Year-over-year, we saw lease listings decline significantly.

What started with an increase at a decreasing rate (ie. the 7% increase in July, which was down from two prior months with a 13% increase), we saw year-over-year numbers drop by 10% in August and then 12% in September.

The reversal of this trend is even more notable on the following chart:

As you can see, we were at all-time high levels from March through July.

And that’s after a year in 2024, where we also saw all-time high levels in March through December.

If you want to throw out 2024, just to say we did, then Q3 listings in 2025 are still well higher than 2021, 2022, and 2023.

Where this matters most, however, is with respect to the number of properties actually being leased.

If listings go up 50%, then we’re telling two very different stories if leases go up 20% or 70%, accordingly.

Here’s the leasing activity in Q3:

Unlike lease listings, where we saw a true reversal of trend in Q3, I would say that the units leased activity has followed the pattern set in Q1 and Q2.

But also consider this:

January, February, and March lease listings trailed the records set in 2021.  But April, May, June, July, August, and September all set new records.

Why?

Well, I would have to think this had something to do with COVID.

And for what it’s worth, I looked back at my records from 2018 through 2020, and none of those years were higher than the current records on a monthly basis.

Say what you want about the downtown Toronto rental market, but this chart shows activity at an all-time high:

There’s no denying it.

That apex in July is absolutely massive, and while the gap narrowed in August and September, we’re still hitting new highs.

All this is to suggest that with listings down in August and September, combined with leasing activity increasing, we’re going to see the absorption rate tighten significantly.

Have a look:

The absorption rate July was higher than 2024, 2023, and 2022, but well below that ridiculous 111% figure from July of 2021.

The absorption rate in August was the highest it’s been in this five year period.

And the absorption rate in September was higher than every year outside of 2022, and if you want to compare year-over-year, this was the highest jump through 2025.

It looks like the summer was very busy in the rental market!

The absorption rate charted is a bit of a mess, but have at it:

There’s far more volatility in the 2025 figures than there was with respect to lease listings and units leased.

But we still seem to be trending up.

The absorption rate declines from summer to fall every year like clockwork, but Q3 saw a level of tightness in the rental market that we haven’t seen since 2021.

What I’m seeing in the above data does not show me that the rental market is in free fall.

Rentals.ca shows a decline of 3.3% in rental prices, but this data doesn’t explain why.

Consider a $2,200 per month rental that comes up for renewal.

With an average decline of 3.3%, this unit should now be leased for around $2,127 per month.

Maybe using only condos and only from C01 and C08 explains the dichotomy?

Or maybe not everything can be explained…