On Sunday, I sold a property that I’ve had listed since April.

I’m not sure if you need to ask, but yes, it was a condominium.

The price was alright.  I think.  It depends on who you ask, what you’re comparing to, and the fact that absolutely everything in real estate is relative.

But the previous Sunday, I sold a property that I’d had listed for two days.

I also don’t think you need to ask here either, but yes, this was a freehold.

We received two offers, organically (ie. without an offer date) and sold well over the list price, which was already beyond our expectations.

It’s a funny market, isn’t it?

On Friday, I leased a condo that I’d had listed since July.  It sat vacant as we had showing after showing, and while we did receive four offers (two were fraudulent, in my opinion), it took until the end of September to fill the unit.

On Saturday, I leased a condo that I’d had listed since Thursday.  It took exactly two days to fill the unit after about fifteen prospective tenants poured through.

Funny, funny market.

A member of my team lost a bid last week in a 10-offer melee on a west-end home, and the very same night, my colleague down the hall received zero offers on his under-priced listing.

If I were a buyer or a seller in this market, I would have absolutely no idea what to make of it.  There’s no consistency.  There’s no predictability.  And what’s more is that many of the real estate market participants have no idea what to make of it either.

That got me wondering: what are they hearing on their own?

Irrespective of what real estate agents and mortgage brokers are telling them, what are they hearing, or more specifically, what are they reading?

You know that my cynical side believes most people only read the headlines, right?

So what are the headlines saying?

And for those Rhodes Scholars who do read the article itself, upon what are they feasting their eyes?

I sat down on Friday to look at the real estate news from the previous week, and dare I say that there’s also a major lack of consistency in the real estate news coverage out there.

Let’s have a look…

“The Housing Market Is Improving, But First-Time Buyers Are Waiting For The ‘Perfect’ Timing”
Toronto Star
September 25th, 2025

This is so ironic!

While buyers are “waiting for the perfect timing,” meaning that their crystal ball tells them prices will be lower in the coming weeks or months, many sellers out there are also waiting weeks or months because their crystal ball tells them the complete opposite.

“I’m going to wait for the spring,” a prospective seller told me last week.

Really?  What’s happening in the spring?

This Toronto Star article seems to hint at a crystal ball, held by the buyer pool, that conflicts with the one the sellers are holding.

From the article:

According to the survey of Canadian real estate professionals working with first-time homebuyers, 15 per cent of prospective homebuyers in Ontario are working towards purchasing their first home in the next two years. But among them, about 80 per cent are planning to buy in one to two years while just 20 per cent plan to buy in the next 12 months.

The problem is: they asked “real estate professionals,” and not actual buyers…

My colleague, Tom Storey, was quoted as follows:

“No one wants to buy, and then the property two months later is worth less than they paid for it.  That’s a huge mental hurdle, which makes a tonne of sense.”

So let me get this straight:

You can buy a condo today for $500,000 that somebody bought for $680,000 in February of 2022…

….however, you’re worried that the identical model one floor above is going to sell for $495,000 next month?

This is how people get left behind.

I know, I know, you want to tell me that I sell real estate for a living, so what else am I going to say?

Here’s another good one:

“Canada’s Housing Market Is Primed For Buyers But Many Are Holding Off”
Financial Post
September 26th, 2025

From the article:

Canada’s housing market is tilting in buyers’ favour due to falling interest rates, rising inventory levels and declining home prices, but many are still choosing to delay their purchases, according to a new report by Royal LePage.

The report said 13 per cent of the 2,500 residents surveyed across Canada are actively trying to buy their first home within the next two years, but 82 per cent are planning to hold off for at least another year.

Some are ahead of others in the purchasing process: 51 per cent are researching neighbourhoods where they can afford to live, 49 per cent are browsing online listings, 19 per cent are viewing homes listed for sale in person and 19 per cent have engaged with a real estate agent.

At least this article noted the survey of actual buyers, instead of real estate industry professionals like the Toronto Star article, but I digress.

Then again, what’s written above isn’t clear.  Are those 2,500 buyers or just 2,500 residents?  Because if you polled 2,500 random Canadians, then yeah, no wonder only 13% are looking to buy a home in the first year.

I didn’t love how this article was written.

But if we wanted to assume that only 13% of buyers are looking to buy inside of a year, and 82% are looking to wait for a year, then my question remains: why?

Lower interest rates?

Lower prices?

Or because all their friends are telling them not to buy?

Misery loves company…

Here’s another take:

“First-Time Buyers Know What They Want – But Not When To Buy”
Real Estate Magazine
September 26th, 2025

This article uses the same Royal Lepage survey, but the way it’s written is clearer.

From the article:

The survey found that 13 per cent of Canadian adults intend to purchase their first home within the next two years. Of those, the majority (82 per cent) are targeting a purchase timeline between 12 and 24 months, rather than the next year.

Ah, okay!

13% of Canadian adults.

The National Post article said “residents.”

Confused yet?

Now, are we talking about houses or condos?

Because, as I noted in my introduction today, there’s a big difference between those two markets.

Nevertheless, the media coverage is still focused on the timing of purchases, as evidenced by this article:

“How Long Should Toronto’s Prospective Condo Buyers Wait For Fire-Sale Bargains?”
National Post
September 26th, 2025

From the article:

Speaking of optimism, here’s a headline I didn’t expect ot see any time soon:

“Toronto Preconstruction Condo Market Downturn Will Reverse, Housing Agency Says”
The Globe & Mail
September 24th, 2025

From the article:

“Today’s market is shaped by a structural shortage of housing, suggesting inventories will clear as the market recovers,” CMHC said in a report released on Wednesday.

Not exactly rocket science there from our crown corporation.

Here’s an article that looks like optimism, but feels more like a “neg.”  You know, when you’re at a bar and you say to a girl, “Oh my gosh, I love those earrings!  My mom has the same ones!”

“Greater Toronto Condo Downturn Not Likely To Be As Severe As Early 90’s: CMHC”
Toronto Star
September 24th, 2025

From the article:

“Several factors point to a softer correction and a less severe outlook than the 1990s crash,” Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said in the report.

Okay, you caught me; this is really just a different newspaper’s coverage of the same CMHC report.  But a better quote, right?

What else is there?

How about this:

“Toronto’s Condo ‘Deep Freeze’ Could Reshape The Housing Landscape For Years To Come”
Financial Post
September 24th, 205

Ah, there’s the optimism again!

The second half of 2026, you say?

Well, let me set the alarm clock on my bedside table!

And what of the pre-construction market?

How about this headline:

“A Housing ‘Drought’ Is Coming, Toronto Homebuilders Warn – As Only 118 New Condos Sell In August”
Toronto Star
September 24th, 2025

Despite this headline, there is some good news.

Perspective.  It’s in the eye of the beholder.

Because when I read the headline above, my first thought was, “That’s 118 more condos than I expected to sell.”

From the article:

“We’re rapidly getting to the point where there’s going to be no cranes in the sky in the next couple of years,” said BILD spokesperson Justin Sherwood.

But isn’t that what some people want?  You know, the folks who graffiti the “Development Application” signs across the city, or the climate change warriors who would prefer we build housing from sticks?

As crazy as this sounds, we are going to see a major housing shortage in five years as a result of the lack of new condo sales and new condo starts from 2023 through 2026.

If you don’t believe me, then check out this next headline:

“Toronto Gets A Failing Grade For Housing Starts So Far In 2025”
CBC News
September 24th, 2025

From the article:

Toronto is one of 22 municipalities given an F, including Brampton, where housing starts have fallen by 50 per cent. Overall, housing starts have decreased by 40 per cent, the report found.

The data paints a bleak picture of Ontario’s ongoing housing crisis, says Richard Lyall, CEO of RESCON.

“The housing situation is actually much worse than people think it is and it’s going to be even worse going forward,” he told CBC Toronto.

“We have crushed the next generation. I hate to say that,” Lyall said. “My generation has failed.”

Hmmm….I wonder what we could have done differently?

Maybe we should have taxed our way out of this?

Because that’s the best idea we’ve had up to this point!  Every problem can be solved with more taxes.

Kidding.  Just kidding.

Because my actual solution is a good one: more hidden speed cameras in Toronto.

Happy Monday, folks!