While you are soaking in the final days of summer this weekend, I’ll be doing what I enjoy most: working.
I’ll be in the office over the weekend writing a two-part blog series for next week on the “burning questions” or best “discussion points” for the fall real estate market.
I’m open to suggestions!
I’m also open to your thoughts or rankings on these topics:
-AirBnb and short-term
-Alternative lenders
-Buyer psychology
-Breaches and/or deals falling through
-First-time buyers
-Inflation
-Interest rates
-Housing starts
-Market stats
-Micro condos
-Mortgage programs and/or features
-Prices
-Real estate auction platforms
-Recessionary indicators
-Rent-to-own programs
-Taxes
-The “missing middle”
-The rental market
-Toronto politics
Looking forward to your comments and suggestions.
Have an awesome long weekend, and I’ll see you back here on Tuesday!
David.
NIBSY
at 8:15 am
How about the impact of the 2024 MPAC property reassessments there are alot of people NOT factoring that in, what will the impacts be for buyers, sellers and those refinancing. Taxes are now at 2016 levels & are supposed to be based on market value.
Dan
at 9:44 am
That is only if the mill rate stays the same. The variances would be minor unless municipalities want to collect more total revenue
hoob
at 11:58 am
What’s the issue? Taxes are independent of valuation years. Doesn’t matter if it’s 2016 or 2016 or 2022, everyone’s milled at a consistent point in time, and the mill varies year to year so are always at the current level.
Yes there will be a few weird pockets where the valuations have increased MUCH more than peer properties, but otherwise the valuation increases since 2016 are pretty much a common tide raising all boats — so no net impact on taxes.
Mike
at 9:26 am
Lots of topics. Lots of talk.
It all leads back to home prices.
That’s what people care about.
Dan
at 9:49 am
Covered under interest rates, but trigger rates seems like a hot topic and the affects on amortization schedules.
Missing middle is great (good 99% Invisible podcast in it)
Any impact from infrastructure projects? Thinking primarily the Ontario line and proposed developments in the Danforth, Eglinton and Finch
Daniel
at 11:14 am
Very surprised you haven’t written about this yet:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/amp/opinion/article-home-owners-are-the-new-oil-barons-and-its-time-to-start-taxing-their/
Jimbo
at 3:32 pm
He has talked about this before.
This is a terrible idea for two reasons:
1. It will cost too much to implement and enforce. It would be better to do it in sale.
2. What do you do in 2017 and this year when prices dropped xx% from peak?
Mxyzptlk
at 11:29 am
The major difference of course is that corporations have actually made “real cash money” which they could use to pay their taxes, whereas homeowners simply have an asset that has increased (perhaps) in value. This idea is dead in the water IMO.
Condodweller
at 1:45 pm
Yes this one might be interesting to debate here. I have seen this brought up elsewhere in socialmedialand and some people have some really absurd ideas in the name of equality and fairness. Definitely would be interested what RE agents think about it.
Ace Goodheart
at 8:08 pm
They should have a 2% yearly tax levy on any public servant with a defined benefit pension that has a commuted value of more than $1 million.
With the money paid to those of us who only have a house for retirement but no pension.
That sounds more fair. I wonder if the University prof who wrote the article would get behind that?
For pension fairness!
JF007
at 9:01 am
Same should hold true for RRSPs too I suppose just to be fair…cuz I don’t know if you realize it but a defined pension means the RRSP limit of the same public servants doesn’t rise by much YoY..so if we tax defined pension it’s fair to tax RRSPs over 1 million by an equal measure..to be Fair..
Ace Goodheart
at 7:57 pm
This is a regressive wealth tax.
Consider: someone who bought a 2 million dollar house last year, pays 10k per year in housing fairness tax. But they only went in with 400k in equity, which is after tax money (they already paid tax on it). They then lost half that equity in the down turn. So they are paying 10k in tax per year on 200k in equity. They have no capital gains and they actually lost half their down payment.
Then you have someone who bought their 2 million dollar house in 1980 for 60k.
They own it out right.
They also pay the same 10k per year in housing fairness tax.
The person with less equity, who did not make any capital gains, pays 10 times the percentage of tax on their equity.
The tax makes no sense.
Just because you own a 2 mil house doesn’t mean you actually have 2 mil. If you bought in the last 5 years most of that is probably mortgage.
Ace Goodheart
at 10:14 am
RRSPs are already taxed.
You pay an initial 30% withholding tax when you withdraw, and the withdrawal is then taxed at your full marginal rate when you file your return.
When you hit 70, the RRSP is converted into a RRIF, and you are forced to withdraw from it, paying tax on the withdrawal at your full marginal rate.
Marina
at 12:20 pm
My vote, for what it’s worth:
Rent to own (still can’t figure out how they even intend to make that work)
Missing middle
I’d love a combo on inflation / interest rates / prices and how you see them interact in the coming year.
Harvard
at 7:04 pm
How about something outside the box?
Your thoughts on how nationalism and warring among former nations over the next few years is going to drastically increase refugees fleeing to the most inviting countries, of which Canada is always atop the list, and how this will affect the need for housing across the country?
DAF
at 8:14 pm
Thank you Harvard!! When Russia invaded Ukraine, I said to colleagues…this will have an impact on Toronto real estate and they said that I was nuts! They have now begged forgiveness…I am nuts but I do “sense” things. Not only is our country in the top ten desired countries but our city is the top in Canada in terms of desirability. Let’s not forget that we have a HUGE Ukrainian community here, especially in the West End (where I live) and they are fiercely defending their country and helping anybody fleeing from war.
Steve
at 7:44 pm
What the City of Toronto needs is a Housing Facilitator to move along the housing supply creation by accelerating building permits being finalized and issued as a start.
There are dozens if underutilized vacant sites simply laying stagnant. One example is the corner of Finch Avenue West at or close to Goldfinch Court ( west of Bathurst Street).
1. Former Branson Hospital site on Finch Avenue West Under-utilized site.
2. Southwest corner of Finch Avenue West & Goldfinch Crt. a vacant site with pending applications for the last several years. Northeast corner of Finch Avenue West and Goldfinch Crt. Just west of the public library. No activity in decades.
3. Finch Avenue West at Grantbrook Street ( between Yonge & Bathurst St.
These sites have been vacant for many years due to;
-Ownership flipping
-Litigation amongst ownership or financing interests
-Estate settlement resolutions
-Passive investment perspective, no motivation to develop or are too risk adverse to proceed.
-Planning approval delays possibly due to ownership indifference in meeting development application studies, paying application fees etc.
-Other reasons
We need to have a facilitator or mediator people to assist and advocate to develop such sites. Remove the obstacles to develop. These are not high-rise sites, rather middle density opportunities. The profit from the completed projects would pay for part of the privately led facilitator. Leave government out of this process wherever possible. Also cut new housing development charges in half as a minimum.
Ace Goodheart
at 4:05 pm
Big problem in Toronto is purpose built “investment condos”
They tend to have a bedroom, a “kitchen wall” (mini fridge, microwave, maybe a stove, usually not an oven and perhaps a bit of counter space and a sink), and a bathroom.
They are built for people to flip and rent.
They are actually hotel rooms, designed for short term rentals.
They never have parking.
No one ever owns and occupies them.
There are entire condo buildings full of them.
Build condos that people can actually live in.
Vancouver Keith
at 12:00 am
Seller psychology, as the market changes. How do you convince sellers that the same mortgage payment from February borrows way less money and they can’t expect the same price they could have got at the peak of the market.
How does Toronto have the highest number of highrises under construction in North America at the same time landlords can command multiple offers of one years rent payments in an up front sum? How did supply and demand become so dramatically mismatched, in such a short period of time?
How did we get a housing market where new market supply is overpriced (more than 30 percent of household income) of half the population in our major cities?
Appraiser
at 8:27 am
Sure feels like the market has bottomed out.
Jimbo
at 8:00 am
14% increase or 24% decrease. I guess it depends what way you look at it.
I think David was on the money for a busy fall market, but is that in comparison to a slow summer or will it be in par with the past five fall markets?
Anwar
at 11:04 pm
What’s going to happen to precon deposits being held by builders? Are they going to build amid this uncertainty in the market?
Howie
at 6:25 pm
You have yet to speak your mind on Unreserved and On The Block.
The CEO of Unreserved was convicted of fraud years ago so you’ve got a green light slam dunk here. I thought you’d have blogged about this by now.
Vancouver Keith
at 6:44 pm
Be careful everyone.
https://www.greaterfool.ca/2022/09/05/rats/