All’s Well That Ends Well!

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August 30, 2021

Serendipity.

I could have played off that theme for today’s blog post and I wouldn’t have been off base.

My client, who will be the subject of today’s blog, used the term “meant to be” several times over the last few days, as we both questioned whether or not there was such a thing.

Kismet, karma, fate, luck, chance……….coincidence?

Some of these words have meaning to you, and some don’t.

For one individual, these may simply be synonyms.  But for others, they can see the differences in the meanings, and one or two of the words might be held near and dear while others are meaningless.

Serendipity is defined as, “The occurrence and development of events by chance in a happy or beneficial way.”

So what is serendipitous?

An old friend who used to work the front desk at Bosley Real Estate sent me a text message the other day and said, “Polly and I are walking through your ‘hood to her Dad’s house and we happen to be on your street!  Which house is yours?  I don’t see your car in any of the driveways!”

I told him that my car wasn’t there because I was at the office and thus I couldn’t come out to say hello.

Then, about three hours after we exchanged text messages, I was driving home along Bayview Avenue and there were Ben and Polly, standing on the sidewalk.  I honked and waved.  He texted me, “That sure was serendipitous.”

That word made multiple appearances over the weekend after another chance encounter on Sunday, which I might find coincidental or some version of that theme with more meaning, if not for the fact that I’m the most unspiritual person you’ll ever meet, and I don’t believe in anything but chance, coincidence, circumstance, and reason.

Back in 2019, I received an email from a woman who was living in Calgary at the time.  I looked through my archives just now, and although I have emails dating back about six years, I can’t find our first correspondence.  Then again, maybe it was a phone call?

In any event, she told me something to the effect of, “You don’t know me, and this is going to sound weird, but I found you online and I, well, I just, I feel a connection to you!”

Go on…

She said that the name “Fleming” is Irish, and she’s Scottish, but her late husband was Irish.

She asked if I knew where my family bloodline originated, and I said “Fethard.”

She told me that this wasn’t far from where her husband’s family originated, and then she went on to say that she read my blog – several of them, in fact, and she just felt like we were connected.

This could have been conceived as an odd call, I’ll be honest.

I’ve had a lot of odd calls over the years.  I’ve had a few people get in touch and invite me into their home, or ask to see condos or houses, when they really just want to hang out or, in one really strange case, get married.  But that’s a story for another day…

But at the risk of sounding cheezy, this woman’s voice was just so sincere.  She said she felt this connection.  And then she used the word “trust.”  She felt like she could “trust me,” as she was looking to get into the real estate market and didn’t quite know what to do.

More to the point, she just sounded a little scared.  She was in her early-70’s and was making the move from out west to Toronto, but knew nothing about the Toronto condo market.  She had clearly been searching online, probably exchanged emails with a few folks, and pearhps didn’t like what she found.

Eventually, she found me, via my blog.  And she “connected” with what I wrote, the personal touch I put into each blog, and the person that I portrayed in the stories and writings.

She asked me, “Can you help me?”  It was a question that is inherently asked by all buyers and sellers with whom we work, but the question itself is never spoken; it’s just inferred.

I’ve worked with buyers and sellers from all different walks of life, but have I ever moved a person in his or her early-70’s across the country into what she described (and she does see the pun) as her “final resting place?”

We discussed the location that she wanted to be in, and I knew it very well.  Inside and out, you might say.  While there were probably twenty condos in this area that she could consider, only six or eight would even be worth looking at.  From there, I knew in my heart that there’s a good chance only three or four would make our final cut, but that we’d have to go through the motions.

At her age, she was looking more at the location and building than the unit itself.  I mean, she did have a requirement for size: at least a one-bed-plus-den, at least 700 square feet.  She didn’t “need” a second bedroom, but wouldn’t turn it down.  She didn’t “need” a second bathroom, but would really like one.  She figured that she didn’t own a car, and didn’t intend to get one, that she could do without parking.

Further down here list, she would love something south-facing, would love something with a view, and she made outdoor space a semi-firm requirement.

Her price point was up to $900,000 but would love to get away with spending $650,000, give or take.

This was in 2019, mind you.  Back then, $650,000 went a lot further than it does today.

I sent her a list of every condominium in the area, divided into three categories: 1) Top Consideration, 2) Maybe, 3) No.

Why bother listing “No” buildings?

Well, because everybody talks real estate in this city!  Sooner or later, you’re going to be told to consider this building or that building, and it would be nice to have a reference list when a friend or a colleague throws a building name or address at you.

I met “Judy” downtown a couple of weeks later, and to save her anonymity we’ll just keep the location vague as well as the buildings.

I remember being confused as to where I was meeting her, and after waiting for twenty minutes and not finding her, I went to call her, but I didn’t have her number.  Imagine that?  I scrolled through my emails but realized she had called me one day, and I didn’t save her number.

I walked through the coffee shop in the adjacent lobby and was heading outside when a woman turned to me and said, “David?”

That was Judy.  What were the odds that I’d go to leave and that’s how I’d find her?

Not only that, she told me she wasn’t carrying her phone, so if I did have her number, it would have rung at home.

We looked at a couple of units that day, but it was more of a walk-and-talk.

I learned all about Judy’s life, what she had back in Calgary, her real estate goals and objectives here, and what she truly valued in a piece of real estate.

I explained that she needed a condo with a concierge, full-stop.  She agreed.

I told her that something newer would come with higher prices, amenities she didn’t need, and it would be full of renters.  She didn’t want that.

We concluded, together, that an older building, but not too old, would be ideal.  Something with a mature demographic and lots of grey hair coming in and out of the lobby!

That night, I sent her a list of five condominiums that we should target.  I knew these buildings very well and had clients in all of them.  But I further explained that the top three on the list were “likely” where we’d end up.

The year 2019 progressed and Judy was back in Calgary living life and getting ready for her eventual move.  When we met, she told me that she didn’t have a timeline, but would like to sell before she buys.  Very, very good idea for somebody in her position!

We flipped the calendar on 2020 and had emailed a few properties back and forth, but nothing that we really loved.

Of course, the COVID-19 pandemic came along and that sure made life interesting for both of us!  She had her Calgary condo on the market but terminated the listing, and we watched as condo values here in the downtown core plummeted in the fall of 2020.

In early 2021, Judy was here in Toronto full-time.  She was living in a rental, month-to-month, and had her condo listed soon thereafter.

We got more diligent in our search, but it was quite apparent that, despite having a short-list of four buildings, we both knew that it was going to come down to one.

One building?  In the entire city?

That sure makes a housing search tough.  Also easy.  But tough.

This building only has 140 units, and by the time you eliminate the smaller 1-bedroom units and larger 2-bedroom units, there’s probably only 50-60 units in there that might work for her.

But if you get even more particular from there and throw in another one or two criteria, plus avoid anything over-renovated that would be out of budget, then we might only have, say, twenty options in the entire building, thus, the entire city!

Every two months, give or take, we’d go see another unit in the building.  We saw one that was listed low with an offer date, and they re-listed up toward $1.1M, which clearly wasn’t in her budget, but even then, it looked over the alleyway and the dumpsters and she just couldn’t pull the trigger on her “forever home” with that view.

We saw another in the same building that we liked, but it just wasn’t the right size.

When we walked outside after that viewing, Judy turned to me and said, “Now, David, I assume you’re a man in your late-30’s, is that correct?”  I told her that it was.  She then said, “Now, I assume you have a mother that is around my age, is that correct?”  I confirmed that was true.

She looked at me like she was staring into my soul and asked, “David, would you put your mother in this building?”

Wow, Judy!  Going right for the heart!

I get asked this sort of thing quite a lot by clients, but the answer always comes with a qualifier.

“If I were a 25-year-old single male, working on my music career, currently pulling part-time shifts at the LCBO on Front Street, with a $350,000 gift from Dad to buy a ‘crash pad’ downtown, then, yes I would consider buying this condo.”

I mean, that’s part of my job, right?  To put myself in the client’s shoes?  Because being asked, as a 40-year-old with two kids, whether I’d spend $575,000 on that 490 square foot condo on King West doesn’t quite make sense.  There’s always a qualifier.

Now, Judy was asking me if I would put my MOTHER in this condo?

I stood outside on the sidewalk and thought about it.

“My mother lives in a house in Scarborough,” I told Judy.  “I had contemplated, for a while now, trying to find her a condo in Leaside closer to my family so she could downsize, ease her lifestyle, and be walking distance to us, but through the pandemic, we realized she needs a house!” I told Judy.

“If my mother were to want to live downtown, would I put her in this building?” I asked myself aloud, but also in conversation with Judy.

“Yeah, I would,” I told her.

And it’s true.  I would.  But it’s probably only one of two buildings that I’d consider though!  And maybe, just maybe, it’s the only one.  Just as I knew this building would be suitable for my mother, in that universe where this is where she wanted to be, I knew this would be the right spot for Judy.

We had narrowed the entire search down to one building, but that conversation out on the street solidified that we were doing the right thing.

Toward the late-spring, she told me that she was having surgery soon and that she might have to put the search on hold.  I mean, of course!  Look after yourself and your health, right?

Summer came along and we might have seen one place together, but maybe we just emailed about it?  Who can remember; it’s like 55-degrees outside and the summer is a fog and a blur…

Fast-forward to last week when a unit came out in our target building and it was as perfect as you can get in this market.  By that, I mean like a 9/10.

It was a one-bedroom with a “real” den, measuring over 800 square feet, second bathroom, and south facing.  There was no parking space to waste money on, and although there was no balcony, there were two Juliette’s.  Priced at only $754,900, I figured there was an offer date, and my gut on this was that it would go closer to $800,000.

The building hasn’t felt as much love as of late, and while I can’t fathom how units at Mariner Terrace and Dan Leckie Way can often command multiple offers, I knew there was a chance that this unit could slip to us.

Low-and-behold, there was no offer date.  The listing specified “48 hours for offers,” so it was what we call a “soft” offer date.

I sent Judy the listing and she emailed me right away.

She was quite keen and wanted to see it asap!

Two small problems, however.

For one, I was up north at my brother’s cottage.  No matter, I could have my colleague Tara step in.

But two, and far more importantly, Judy was scheduled for surgery the very next day!

“Didn’t you have this surgery already?” I asked her.  But it seems it was pushed back a couple of months, and just our luck, it was the day after this listing came out.

This timing couldn’t possibly be any worse.  I mean, I guess Judy could literally be in the operating room when I emailed her, but even then she’d be out in time to see the damn place!

What if we saw this place and liked it and wanted to make an offer?  What then?

We’d been waiting two damn years for a condo to come out in this building!  What the hell were we supposed to do now?

(TO BE CONTINUED…)

Written By David Fleming

David Fleming is the author of Toronto Realty Blog, founded in 2007. He combined his passion for writing and real estate to create a space for honest information and two-way communication in a complex and dynamic market. David is a licensed Broker and the Broker of Record for Bosley – Toronto Realty Group

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23 Comments

  1. Pingback: Best Real Estate Agent In GTA – All’s Well That Ends Well! – Toronto Realty Blog
  2. Edwin

    at 10:04 am

    I think I know the building and unit, I like it a lot. I hope she gets it.

  3. Jenn

    at 10:53 am

    OMG I hate your cliffhanger posts! ????

  4. J G

    at 11:20 am

    Google $2900, 1 year return 77%, 5 year return 266%
    Facebook $375, 1 year return 33%, 5 year return 199%

    416 condo $690k, 1 year return 0%, 5 year return 62%

    Facts.

    1. John

      at 1:22 pm

      Leveraged at a standard 1:4 downpayment to mortgage ratio 416 condo 5 year minimum (i.e. not including the principal paid over 5 years) return 310%.

      $690K / 1.62 = $426K purchase price
      $426K x 20% = $85K downpayment on $426K purchase
      ($690K – $426K) / $85K x 100% = 310%* total return over 5 years

      *If an investment unit, add 5 years worth of the principal paid out, even if hasn’t been cash-flowing.

      Fact.

      1. J G

        at 1:57 pm

        What about carrying cost like condo fee, realtor fee, property tax, insurance??
        $450x12x5=$27000
        $558(avg) x 0.05 = $27500
        $2500×5=$12500
        $2000×5=$10000
        Total $77000, what’s your return now? Not even counting interest, maintenance, land transfer tax, etc. Easily knock off 90k from your return.
        Btw, a lot of people doesn’t leverage 1:4, that’s just the minimum. You think most average Joes have the balls to just put down 20%?

        With stocks, carrying cost is $0. Some will pay dividend too.

        Fact.

        1. John

          at 9:50 am

          $425K in 2016 would have gotten you a cozy 2BR in many locations between Bloor and the lake within approximately 10 min walking distance from either Yonge or University lines subway station. You conveniently overlook the following in your calcs:
          1) for someone bought as a residence it has saved ~$132K ($2.2K/mth on average, conservatively) in rents over 5 years to offset the costs above
          2) if bought as investment it would have generated $132K ($2.2/mth on average, conservatively) in rent income
          3) if bought as pre-con and closing now all the 310%+ appreciation come at no carrying cost at all and in would cash flow nicely at $2.7K/mth (and rising)
          4) if bought as pre-con and closing now but with 15% (or if especially lucky with 10%) deposit – see 3) above but also what’s your return now?

          Facts

          1. Kyle

            at 4:39 pm

            100%

            Also here’s a question: Who in their right mind would put their entire net worth into two stocks Facebook and Google? Answer: Likely someone who doesn’t have a material net worth to risk.

          2. J G

            at 4:58 pm

            You mean with all the renters demanding rent decrease last year?
            Because the same unit down the hall is $300 cheaper haha

            Buying new? Add in HST, and the time which your money is tied up.

        2. John

          at 9:57 am

          And I don’t know ay average Joe who put more than 25%.
          Typically on an investment property they put the minimum required 20% and on a principal residence often times even less than 20%. Both of which made perfect sense given where the interest rates had been over the last decade, not to mention where they are now.

        3. Kyle

          at 4:26 pm

          5 Yrs of rent in Toronto cost way more than $90K, unless you live in 350 sq ft or a basement.

          And when you sell stocks you pay cap gains tax on half your gain, unlike when you sell your principal residence.

          1. J G

            at 4:56 pm

            When you sell Investment condo you pay all the tax at once.
            With stocks I can sell slowly over the years and have barely any tax impact.

            There are things called TSFA, RRSP, RESP, which are all tax free. You should try them, and maybe load them up with FANGs.

          2. J G

            at 5:05 pm

            “5 Yrs of rent in Toronto cost way more than $90K”

            What you talking about? 90k/12/5 = $1500/month
            For $1600/month I can get studio condo downtown or 1 bedroom in the suburb.

            It’s not WAY more than 90k you RE pumper. For extra $100, the smart young person has the flexibility to move to SF if he gets an job offer from Google.

          3. Kyle

            at 5:47 pm

            LOL, you’re out here telling anyone who will listen to bet their net worth into two tech stocks, slanting the arguments in your favour any chance you can…and still losing the argument. And you call me the pumper? Truly hilarious.

          4. Kyle

            at 6:35 pm

            For those reading at home, here’s advice from a real life billionaire investor…not someone who relies on hindsight-only, cherry picked stock scenarios where all the variables are skewed in his favour just to even be competitive…

            “If somebody came to you and asked how they should invest $100,000, what would you tell them?

            I always say the best investment for an average individual is to buy their own home. So if you take that $100,000, put 10% down, get a $900,000 mortgage, you can buy a home for a $1 million. It was just reported that home prices were up 20% in the last month. So if you bought a home for a $1 million with $100,000 down and the home was up 20%, that’s $200,000 on a $100,000 investment. The longer you wait, the more the house is going to appreciate and the greater return you’ll have on your equity investment. So I think the single best investment for anyone with that type of money would be to buy their own house or apartment.”

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-30/is-bitcoin-a-good-investment-billionaire-paulson-says-crypto-worthless-bubble

          5. J G

            at 8:05 pm

            Betting two tech stock? You make it sound like it’s the casino.

            Google, FB, Amazon are all trillion dollar companies. Just because you got burned on Nortel or RIM, you think FANGs can go BK too, maybe you should look up how much money FANGs earn. They make more money than Big banks can print haha.

            There are only 5 trillion dollar companies in the world. How many borderline world class cities like Toronto? I can think of a few.

            Btw, inflation is real. Interest rate going up next 6-12 months for sure.

        4. John

          at 6:23 pm

          You don’t seem to fully understand how RE works. So, I agree, in your case it’s better to stick with what you understand the best – stocks.

          To each their own

          1. Chris

            at 8:10 pm

            Are we arguing stocks vs real estate again? Haven’t we done this before?

            Over the past 20 years, GTA real estate has increased 333% (2001 TRREB average price to June 2021 average price)

            From August 31, 2001 to August 31, 2021

            TSX: +178%
            DJI: +256%
            S&P500: +300%
            NASDAQ: +746%

            The ranking will fluctuate depending on the timeline you pick. Scott Ingram publishes some research on this.

            But, the overall point is, other than the laggard TSX, many investors have seen strong returns over recent decades.

            And an investor can access leverage in equity markets as well.

          2. Libertarian

            at 9:05 pm

            Chris, it’s always fun when the debate happens. I like how all the real estate fanatics make up their own math and then say that everybody else doesn’t know math or how real estate works.

            Disclosure: I own my primary residence, but all my investments are in stocks. I think that’s what JG is talking about here. Own your home, but then stocks are the better investment than real estate.

            Plus, there are other stocks that have made lots of money besides FAANG. Over the last 20 years, anybody who has owned Canadian bank stocks is well off. Rising share prices and rising dividends. There are so many examples.

          3. Chris

            at 10:41 pm

            Agreed, Libertarian. All good points.

          4. Condodweller

            at 1:38 am

            I hit refresh and boom, 21 replies. Should have known it’s the usual topic and slugfest. JG I think I commented this last time but what’s the point of coming on a RE blog to brag about your stock returns?

            Food for thought:
            If you own a 1 bed condo out right, at $2100/mo annual income is $25,200. If you sell and buy bank shares, 5% dividend alone on say $500,000 after taxes is $25,000.

            Considering the risk you take when you take on a tenant, rental income is 100% taxable whereas capital gains on both the sale of the condo and bank shares have a 50% inclusion rate for taxes plus dividends are also tax efficient.

            This also works for houses if you use 1.5mil for instance.

            The leverage argument is reduced for RE investments with the 20% down requirement unless it’s taken from a HELOC etc.

  5. Steve

    at 12:59 pm

    Can anybody here comment on the kind of building that characterizes Grand Harbour near Lakeshore and Park Lawn?

  6. Pingback: All’s Well That Ends Well! - Chimpy

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