For those of you who don’t have the time to watch a 31-minute video, here are the questions covered, and the times at which they appear so you can skip ahead…
Question #1 from Condodweller @ 1m 13s
If you maintain an ongoing relationship with investors whose units you listed for lease, what are you advising them on how to handle tenants who are not going to pay rent? What recourse might they have if the tenant doesn’t pay and he/she just moves out at the end of the eviction moratorium?
Question #2 from Ed @ 4m 16s
Which G.I. Joe action figure would be most suited to destroy the Corona virus and why?
Question #2 from Jenn @ 5m 14s
My question is this: if you’re one of these buyers who makes an offer conditional on seeing the property, do you have to submit a deposit cheque? And I’d you don’t like what you see when you visit the property how hard is it to get out of the agreement?
Question #4 from Libertarian @ 7m 34s
What is your advice to someone who has been trying to sell the last few weeks but did not get any offers? I know that your advice is to re-list in a couple of months, but what if that option is off the table because they have already purchased their new home and now have a deadline to sell.
Do you take 10% off the amount they would have accepted a month ago?
It’s sad to me that they weren’t able to sell a few weeks ago when things were still crazy, so I’m guessing that they received bad advice from their agent at the time. But now the crucial thing to do is maximize selling price. How?
Question #5 from Francesca @ 12m 52s
Do you foresee people backing out of closing if they can’t sell their house if they bought already? Or if they can’t get the price they want when selling their house? I’m wondering if we will see more situations like in 2017 after the foreign buyer tax was implemented and buyers were backing out of deals and then sellers were suing buyers. Is this period going to be deja vu of the early 2017 buying frenzy and then the drop in sales and prices?
Question #6 from Daniel @ 16m 40s
David, do you get a sense that it’s a buyer’s market right now? Are sellers willing to accept market realities?
Question #7 from Hoob @ 18m 02s
My RE lawyer discussed with me recently that as an owner of a semi-detached, that is a PART LOT designation with the other half of the semi:
If I buy the other half of the house in my own name, in Toronto, the two PART LOTs apparently automatically merge into a single property and I would have to go through a full severing process to split them again to resell. So if I were to buy the other half, it would have to be at arms length (incorporated LLC, etc.)
Any thoughts on this? It came out of discussion of a clause in a mortgage refinance that precluded me from owning any adjacent properties due to the PART LOT designation of the mortgage property.
Question #8 from Dana @ 19m 35s
Why do agents get away with saying a property is in a specific ‘desirable’ school district when a quick search of the TDSB website can prove it’s not the case? For that matter, how many buyers truly consider the school ranking or reputation when they’re looking at specific properties?
Question #9 from Navyliz @ 21m 25s
Do you think condo fees will be reduced due to lack of access to amenities like gyms and common rooms or are condos spending this money on cleaning and hand sanitizer. My condo seems to be well ahead in this regard.
Question #10 from Wilson @ 22m 35s
What’s your view on closings for properties that have already sold? How have these been happening? Can the seller refuse to allow an in-person walkthrough? Have you been seen any virtual walkthroughs? How do buyers protect themselves?
Question #11 from Jimbo @ 24m 21s
What is the average house payment for your SFH buyers over the last 3 years Vs the monthly payment for a condo over the last year? I’m assuming you know the DP % of the purchase price. If you don’t know the average financing rate I think 3.15% would be a fair number.
How would this compare to a monthly for a SFH house purchased in 1989 for $300k at 12-18% interest. How did your father’s numbers stack up to this historical when you moved to the bigger house in Leaside, Vs someone moving there now?
When you take the historical numbers and put them into the Canadian inflation calculator and compare this new number to today’s payments, does this give you any insight into how the Toronto buyer has changed since the 80s Vs now or are you surprised by this result?
Question #12 from Leggatee @ 27m 30s
My wife and I are going through a divorce.
We share an investment condo and she is trying to get me to sign a listing agreement for May 1st.
Before COVID i would have been fine with that, excited even, the condo market was doing great.
I feel very uncomfortable commiting to a sale date that is 6 weeks away when things are changing every day, every hour.
She is threatening that she will just get her own agent to sell her half and I will have to get my own because she wants to go to market on May 1st. Is such an arrangement even possible and what does it entail?
Thanks
Jenn
at 10:09 am
Thanks David!
Please make this a regular feature!
Jon
at 10:29 am
I think you can sell half a condo. You just have to let the buyer know that Bob lives in one of the bedrooms, and that you should avoid the kitchen in the morning because he likes to cook his bacon in a state of nature.
condodweller
at 10:10 pm
Thanks for the video David it’s a good feature if you can sustain it when things return to normal. Your blog is definitely benefiting from people staying home, as far as comment count goes anyway 🙂
condodweller
at 10:15 pm
This was meant as a new comment, not sure how it ended up as a response to Jon. But since I’m here I would agree that since in the case of a married couple there are two people on title and as far as I know there is no reason why one of them can’t be changed to a third party if their share is sold. I’d really have to dig deep in the imagination department to come up with a case where one would want to do this.
I gotta wonder though if a person were to buy her out what are the rights of that person to actually move in.
Fish
at 11:29 am
If food supply chains are disrupted, who among your regular commenters should we eat first?
hoob
at 11:46 am
Thanks for taking my question/statement Dave… In my case it came up since the other half of my semi is in fact going to come on the market soon (owner’s estate is still in probate) and I was pondering buying it and renovating it since it’s right next door.
So if the PART LOT thing is accurate, I could easily merge the properties apaprently (if I want this) but if I want it to eventually be a rental/remain separate, I have to set up a holding company of some sort.
My mortgage RE lawyer says that often spouses acquire halves in their own names to avoid this issue as well — which must add an entire crazy wrinkle to matrimonial home legislation.
If I go ahead with the purchase for sure I will get a lawyer to do it properly. I was just hoping you’d heard about this issue and had some tips and tricks!
Sirgruper
at 12:25 am
Honestly, this is basic knowledge for any real estate lawyer or for that matter any lawyer that passes the Bar and therefore studied the Planning Act. Every real estate lawyer can assist with some very simple advice on taking title. It may not even be necessary if the part lot was subject to a severance previously. Just ask your lawyer after he or she searches title.
Derek
at 12:53 pm
Great post, David
RPG
at 1:32 pm
Can we get a daily update on the moustache?
Maybe one photo per day and your marketing team can do a time-lapse?
Really getting bored of Netflix over here as you can probably tell!!
Chris
at 4:47 pm
John Pasalis’ weekly update is being picked up by the media now:
“Toronto real estate sales plunge as coronavirus weighs on market: Realtor
Canada’s largest real estate market “hit the brakes” in the last full week of March as sales plunged and sellers pulled listings in the face of the COVID-19 crisis, according to a Toronto-based realtor.
What had been a gradual softening in Greater Toronto Area sales after a strong February turned decidedly negative last week, with sales down 37 per cent compared to the same period last year, John Pasalis, president of Realosophy Realty, told BNN Bloomberg in email.
While last week’s average Toronto home price of roughly $856,000 is up about nine per cent year over year, annual price appreciation had been running stronger at the end of February into early March when there were more high-end homes being sold.”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/toronto-real-estate-sales-plunge-as-coronavirus-weighs-on-market-realtor-1.1414725
Appraiser
at 5:19 pm
I suppose Bloomberg could have run with an alternate headline stating that average prices are up +9% year over year, despite world wide pandemic.
Nah. That would not have generated the desired click count.
Also, wouldn’t it be much more useful to release the HPI over the same period, rather than price averages?
Oh yeah, almost forgot, Pasalis hasn’t invented an algorithm for that yet.
Derek
at 7:55 pm
Appraiser, between the two choices for headline material, sales dropping versus avg price landing @ +9% yoy, which is more instructive regarding where things are headed?
Chris
at 7:59 pm
Don’t expect him to answer. It doesn’t fit his narrative.
Appraiser
at 8:43 pm
@Derek: I don’t know where things are headed, nor does anyone else. So to ask what headline is more instructive, betrays the notion that Bloomberg somehow does.
Although there are “bear-boners” everywhere it seems (careful, social distancing please), the fact is that new listings are way down and sellers are pulling their homes off the market. Inventory is still very low.
Currently it appears as though buyers and sellers are exiting the market in equal numbers. If that ratio goes out of balance drastically with a flood of new listings (not likely) then we may see a drop in prices. We are no there yet.
Incidentally, speaking of crystal balls, RBC projects in their housing affordability report released today that “prices to fall briefly over the second half of 2020 by an average of 2.9% year over year.” Hardly catastrophic.
https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/a-tough-but-temporary-blow-to-canadas-housing-market/
Chris
at 10:55 pm
At least now you‘ve changed your tune and admit not even you know what is going to happen! Far cry from your previous prediction of “unstoppable”.
Derek
at 12:32 am
What’s a bear-boner lol?
Chris
at 8:01 pm
“On a YOY basis home prices are up 9% over last year, but that is hiding the fact that average prices over the past 4 weeks have declined nearly 10% from the last week of February to the last week of March, from $949K to $856K.
Does that mean everyone’s home is worth 10% less that it was a month ago? Not really. A good portion of this decline has to do with the fact that there are more lower priced homes selling today when compared to 4 weeks ago.
That of course does not mean that a seller today should expect the same elevated prices that some sellers achieved a month ago. You are of course going to get a higher sale price on your house if you have 15 people competing for it vs 1 person”
– John Pasalis
https://twitter.com/JohnPasalis/status/1244685102606684160
Chris
at 4:48 pm
In other news:
“Canadian jobless claims continue to accelerate as the coronavirus pandemic forces more and more businesses to shut.
In the 10 days between March 16 and March 25, some 1.55 million Canadians applied for jobless benefits, according to a senior government official with knowledge of the matter. That represents about 8 per cent of the labor force.
The sharp rise in lay offs highlights how abruptly the economy has seized up, forcing the government to ramp up a wage subsidy program this week to keep more workers on payrolls.”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/jobless-claims-jump-to-1-55m-in-canada-after-lockdowns-1.1414735
Appraiser
at 5:34 pm
Bank Rate Updates: Following the BoC’s half-point rate cut on Friday, banks dropping advertised floating rates to prime + 0% seems to be the trend:
CIBC lowered its variable rates by 50 bps:
3yr closed: 2.95% to 2.45%
5yr closed: 2.95% to 2.45%
5yr open: 4.75% to 4.25%
RBC also cut its variable rates by 50 bps:
5yr closed: 2.95% to 2.45%
5yr open: 5.45% to 4.95%
5yr closed (Special): 2.95% to 2.45%
TD dropped its variable rates 50 bps as well:
5yr closed: 3.15% to 2.65%
5yr open: 4.10% to 3.60%
https://www.ratespy.com/coronavirus-mortgage-update-march-30-033012883
Bal
at 6:45 pm
and I was wondering what happened to Chris and Appraiser…..lolol…
Chris
at 8:02 pm
50 bps will be cold comfort to the 8% of our labour force that have lost their jobs in the past two weeks.
Appraiser
at 8:56 pm
@Chris:
That may well be, but it is certainly good news to the 92% who are still working.
Chris
at 10:56 pm
If that other 92% are seeking a variable rate mortgage and aren’t currently dissuaded by the precipitous drop off in consumer confidence, discussed in another comment. Then sure. Helps a tad.
Derek
at 7:50 pm
Sounds like Cresford has 3 tower projects entering receivership ????
Appraiser
at 9:06 pm
@Derek: Certainly bad news for those buyers affected. It remains to be seen if another builder will eventually take over these deals, as is often the case. Still, with some projects going bust and new condo launches likely to be delayed indefinitely, it leaves potential buyers with even less inventory from which to choose.
Derek
at 12:21 am
Be interesting to see if that lawsuit proceeds and if any light is shed on how the sausage gets made with the big developers.
Appraiser
at 11:18 am
@Derek et al: Re Cresford projects.
“The Receiver understands that the Cresford Group entered into pre-construction unit purchase contracts with numerous persons in respect of the Clover, Halo and 33 Yorkville projects. No decisions have been made in respect of these contracts. Persons who made pre-construction purchases of units in the projects are asked to e-mail the Receiver at halo.clover@pwc.com, with details of your contract and your contact details. In due course once decisions have been made on the path forward for each of the projects, you will be contacted by the Receiver regarding the status of these contracts.”
https://www.pwc.com/ca/en/services/insolvency-assignments/clover—halo.html
Verbal Kint
at 8:48 am
Secured creditors included
– Ayrtight Investments Inc.
– Loaded Dice Investments Inc.
– Bad Boy Investments Inc.
– Romper Investments Inc.
– Big Snipe Holdings Inc.
… but the biggest appear to have been BC public sector pension plans, and Aviva Insurance
Not Harold
at 12:15 pm
The documents are on PwC’s site if you google Cresford receivership!
Everything kicked off with the January lawsuit by the former Cresford executive.
CRESFORD WAS KEEPING TWO SETS OF BOOKS!!!!
Suppliers broke up invoices to hide cost overruns from lenders at the direction of Cresford!
This is an utter disaster and I’d say people are going to jail if Ontario had any ability to prosecute or convict white collar crime. But the Casey’s are SCREWED if there’s any way that the SEC or US DOJ can get involved.
Chris
at 8:05 pm
In other news:
“Consumer Confidence Plunges in Canada to Lowest Since ‘09 Recession
Canadian consumer confidence posted its biggest ever weekly drop as the coronavirus crisis shuts much of the nation’s economy.
Canadians’ outlook for the nation’s economy is the bleakest on record, with almost two-thirds of respondents now expecting Canadian output to be weaker six months from now. That’s more than double the historical average for that question. Only 8.3% of respondents see the economy strengthening, also a record low.
The numbers point to fragility in the country’s housing markets, with 27% of respondents now expecting real estate prices to decrease in the next half year, the highest proportion since the 2008-2009 financial crisis.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-30/consumer-sentiment-in-canada-sinks-to-lowest-since-09-recession
Chris
at 8:35 pm
“Property values have received strong support from tight demand-supply conditions in the majority of markets since mid-2019. We expect some degree of support to hold initially as both buyers and sellers go into hiatus. Lower interest rates, governments’ financial help to vulnerable Canadians and banks offer to defer mortgage payments will provide some downside protection. This won’t last. In a matter of weeks or months, surging unemployment and the market’s illiquidity will compel a growing number of tight-squeezed sellers to make price concessions. We project Canada’s composite benchmark prices to fall briefly over the second half of 2020 by an average of 2.9% year over year. The surge in activity we expect in 2021 will tilt the scale back in favour of sellers and swing the price dynamics around.”
https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/a-tough-but-temporary-blow-to-canadas-housing-market/
RBC mildly bearish short-term, but expecting big price surges in 2021! Although, they do warn that “the timing and speed of the eventual rebound is uncertain”, as pertains to sales volumes. Have to imagine a similar caveat holds true for prices as well.
Chris
at 8:39 pm
This one’s for you, appraiser, as I’m sure in a few days time you’ll tout the TRREB monthly figures:
“That turned quickly from hot to cold! #COVID19 effect now fully evident with #Toronto #realestate Sales volumes.
First 3 weeks of March, 416 freeholds were surging vs. 2019, up 49%. Totally reversed with last week down 42%. 416 condos were up 31% in first 3 weeks, last week down 42%.
DO NOT lose site of this “in like a lion out like a social-distancing lamb” trend when you see the TRREB numbers for March because they’re going to show things as UP versus 2019. Month to date sales numbers as of March 29
416 freeholds up 17.9% YoY
416 condos up 6.2% YoY”
– Scott Ingram
https://twitter.com/areacode416/status/1244705088343552000
Appraiser
at 9:15 pm
You keep beating the same drum. Everyone knows that sales volumes are down.
Bloomberg could have also have headlined that new listings have plunged 33%, but chose not to.
Chris
at 10:59 pm
No, you’ve missed the point.
In a couple days, when TRREB publishes their market watch, and the stats show sales up YoY, try to remember Scott’s tweet before you celebrate the data.
As he explains, the beginning of the month was strong. That quickly evaporated, but the overall monthly stats will still be positive, as a result of the first few weeks.
Mark
at 11:57 pm
Ok. I think homebuyers confidence has been hit a bit in this “MINI recession”, and therefore will,for the most part stay put. Fix up the house and yard and enjoy the summer of “what they have”. Does this mean low listings and intense competition for the properties listed for the 2020 rebound phase, probably. Just a vibe. For the Bears….buy some 5G stock, and call it a day.
MARK
at 11:58 pm
*meant homeowners stay put.
Appraiser
at 8:42 am
The point is a simple one. Keep a close eye on inventory.
Did a quick check on sales over the past 2 days on TRREB:
67% of condos sold over asking. 48% of freeholds sold over asking.
Highest freehold sale was a circa 1905 built Edwardian “fixer-upper” at 35 Roxborough St. East (Rosedale). Sale price $4,650,000.
Chris
at 8:48 am
Sorry, but you don’t get to dictate what my point was. But don’t worry, I’ll remind you of Scott Ingram’s words when you invariably celebrate March’s YoY figures.
And here I thought appraiser’s daily (then hourly) updates were a thing of the past!
Bal
at 9:04 am
Is that data for the last two days…March 28 and 29 the…or previous week from March 21 to 29?
Appraiser
at 10:44 am
@Bal. Last 2 days only.
Chris
at 9:00 am
“Mortgage rates are rising in Canada despite virus-relief cuts
Canada’s mortgage rates are creeping up — even though the country’s central bank has slashed borrowing costs to combat the COVID-19 pandemic.
That’s due to the “enormous pressure” Canadian banks face amid disruptions caused by the outbreak, said Sherry Cooper, chief economist at Dominion Lending Centers.
“The costs of funds for banks is skyrocketing and bank earnings are plunging,” Cooper said Monday in a phone interview. “Every single business they have ever loaned to is subject to a massive decline in revenues, and therefore their own revenues are going down because nobody is taking out new business with banks except to extend debt.”
The Bank of Canada has cut its overnight interest rate three times this month, bringing the benchmark to 0.25 per cent. The large Canadian banks matched those moves by cutting their prime rates, which influence borrowing rates for variable mortgages and credit lines, to 2.45 per cent from 3.95 per cent at the start of the month.
As those rates have dropped, banks have been eliminating discounts off prime on variable mortgages. At the start of the month, qualified borrowers could get a rate of prime minus 1 per cent from HSBC Canada, for example, while Canada’s large domestic lenders were also offering “prime minus” deals as well.
But those discounts have shrunk by 75 to 85 basis points, said Rob McLister, founder of mortgage comparison website RateSpy.com.
McLister said the rising cost of short-term funding, used for variable mortgages, explains the jump. Spreads are wide, fewer people want to lend big banks money at preferable pricing, so that gets passed through to the borrower, McLister said.
Fixed-rate mortgages, which are tied more to swings in the bond market, are also creeping up after Canadian bond yields hit record lows earlier in the month, added Cooper.”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/mortgage-rates-are-rising-in-canada-despite-virus-relief-cuts-1.1414766
Bal
at 9:07 am
Sorry why banks are hiking up the rates…bcz they are receiving lots of request from the buyers?
Chris
at 9:16 am
As Ron Butler said the other week, in a word, bank rates are higher because of risk. Article linked above goes into a bit more detail.
Appraiser
at 6:09 pm
Notable Moves: The day’s top rate changes:
BMO lowers its posted variable rates by 50 bps in line with the drop in prime:
3yr open: 4.65% to 4.15%
5yr closed: 3.45% to 2.95%
HSBC improved these rates specials:
5yr fixed (refis): 2.79% to 2.69%
5yr fixed (high ratio): 2.49% to 2.39%
https://www.ratespy.com/coronavirus-mortgage-update-march-31-033112962
Kyle
at 10:11 am
In other news:
Airbnb has announced they will be funding new measures to help hosts impacted by COVID19. They’re reimbursing hosts 25% of trips that were cancelled under the penalty-free period due to COVID19 as well as offering grants…GRANTS to help hosts cover their mortgage costs during these lean times.
Kyle
at 10:15 am
https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/30/airbnb-commits-250-million-to-helping-hosts-cover-cancellations-due-to-covid-19/
Chris
at 10:40 am
“They’re reimbursing hosts 25% of trips that were cancelled”
No, they’re paying hosts “25% of what you would normally receive through your cancellation policy”.
For example, let’s say you have a unit that rents for $100/night, and a cancellation policy that provides a 50% refund if cancelled at least 7 days before check-in (a very common policy). Normally, if someone cancelled, you would get $50. AirBnB is offering to give you 25% of this, so $12.50.
“as well as offering grants…GRANTS to help hosts cover their mortgage costs”
Make sure to read the fine print on this one too. Grants are to a maximum of $5,000 USD, only for Superhosts, only for those who have been Superhosts for over a year, only for those who have a maximum of 2 listings (ghost hotel operators excluded), can demonstrate that AirBnB is a vital source of earnings (no indication of how this will be done), and have lost a significant portion of their earnings due to COVID-19. AirBnB also indicates they will “select only those hosts who demonstrate the most need”.
Full details available here: https://news.airbnb.com/a-letter-to-hosts/
Chris
at 10:50 am
“Some #Airbnb measures to help out its hosts. It’s not 25% of the reservation revenue, just of your cancellation fee. As I interpret, $400 booking, your policy refunds 50% ($200), you get $50. (Everything being 100% refunded now so better than nothing.)
Not sure people with 10 or 20 units going to be helped much by one payment of $5000. Cents on the dollar for big time players.
This seems like it’ll amount to a whole lot of nothing. Just a “Look at us, we really care” PR thing. But who is going to reach out to that guy Brian they stayed with 2 years ago in Chicago to send him money? We all have bigger things to worry about.”
– Scott Ingram
https://twitter.com/areacode416/status/1244988713874186241
Libertarian
at 10:12 am
As the others have said David, thanks for answering the question.
The bottom line is “things done changed” as you said last week, but I sympathize with current sellers because there’s a huge difference between our governments interfering with the market, as they are always wont to do, and a guy in Wuhan eating a bat.
But as you said, a seller’s profit going down from 75% to 65% is not the end of the world.
Derek
at 10:32 am
I thought that was an astute observation about human nature–feeling the need to sell for only the new highest number, even if your ppty has doubled since you bought it. I guess there may be a small number of people who purchased before selling and spent the equity from the new highest number before it was in the bank…
I wonder if there will actually be some opportunities for the agile stick-handler in this period of uncertainty. If you’re waiting to list your move-in ready home in a sweet spot price range, in a sweet spot neighbourhood, the professionals who are still working with 1.5 kids might still flock to it in droves with no competition to speak of.
Chris
at 11:01 am
In other news:
“Canada’s economy expanded less than expected in January even before the pandemic caused a virtual shutdown, reinforcing views the first quarter will be weak.
Gross domestic product rose 0.1 per cent from December, missing economist estimates for a 0.2 per cent gain, Statistics Canada reported Tuesday. That follows a 0.3 per cent jump in the prior month.
Tuesday’s numbers are largely moot since the growing coronavirus pandemic has changed the entire economic picture in the last month. The weaker-than-expected print backs up economists’ views that the economy will contract in the first quarter.”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-ekes-out-meager-growth-in-january-before-pandemic-1.1415154
Chris
at 11:03 am
Indeed with some interesting hiring/job posting data:
“Canadian job postings declined last week, as the economic fallout of the COVID-19 crisis continued. As of March 27th, the trend in Canadian job postings was down 24% compared to 2019. A week earlier, the gap was just 8%.
The pace of the decline in Canadian job postings is even striking when compared to the U.S., where the year-to-date gap on March 27th was 15%. Other data also suggest the immediate labour market shock from the COVID-19 crisis has been greater in Canada than the U.S. While initial claims for U.S. unemployment insurance hit a record level during the week of March 14th, Canadian Employment Insurance reportedly jumped even more on a per capita basis.
Some of Canada’s largest declines in postings compared to 2019 trends have been in sectors directly impacted by the virus and social distancing, like hospitality and tourism, aviation, and food preparation and service, all down over 30% relative to last year’s trend. However, as the economic fallout has spread, job postings have also dropped substantially in other areas of the economy such as:
– Construction, which includes labourers, equipment operators, and skilled tradespeople, down 19% as of March 27th from last year’s trend.
– Accounting, which includes various accountants, financial analysts and others, down 23%, compared to last year’s trend.
– Legal, which includes lawyers, paralegals, and legal assistants, down 25% from last year’s trend.”
https://www.hiringlab.org/en-ca/2020/03/31/job-postings-decline-covid19/
Jimbo
at 12:59 pm
I think you provided a great answer. I only know what you place on your blog about yourself and family history lol.
You got to what I was getting at, which is; is it actually more expensive to live in a house today than it was in 89? I don’t think it is which is why I wonder if the Toronto buyer has actually changed that much. Yes the absolute cost had increased but has the payment? The payment is all we care about in today’s finances.
If your father bought that house for $70k in 82 and sold in 92 for $380k plus that would mean the house went up in value by 500% in 10 years. Have we actually hit that kind of growth in the last 10 years? Maybe he bought that house in 85 which would increase the slope.
If you were paying $2,000 a month on a mortgage in 89 that is equivalent to $3,800 a month now. $1 million dollar house with 20% down 25 year (5 year fixed) mortgage at 3.15% is $3,800 a month. You can buy a $1.12 million dollar home with a 30 year. After posting my question I quickly crunched the numbers and at 10% interest on a 300k house it came out to $2,400 a month.
$32k 25 year mortgage at 20% in 1982 (20% down on $40k) would be $500 a month which is $1340 a month now. I would guess this the the average mortgage for anyone that bought prior to 2013/4.
You touch on the baby boomer factor but given the requirements in education now Vs 1989 I don’t see there being another way other than tapping into equity or savings to help your kids out. Becoming a lawyer, doctor, engineer etc. was cheaper in real dollars then Vs now and there were a lot more higher paying jobs that demanded less education back then.
Thank you for taking the time to provide your answer.
David Fleming
at 1:14 pm
@ Jimbo
Sorry, my answers were confusing!
I might interview my Dad for a blog on Friday, could be a good story!
David Fleming
at 1:36 pm
@ Jimbo
I’m talking to my Dad right now, this is GOLD!
I’m going to blog on Friday with all this. Wow, the stories that exist. Let’s flash back to the 1970’s and 1980’s!
Jimbo
at 2:58 pm
Not confusing at all, everything you said made sense. Especially the why put more down than 20% when you can make more elsewhere and money is basically free. This is exactly how business thinks and I agree with it.
That being said there is a big difference with our payments and our parents….. They got to see an upside with sliding rates, by which I mean their total obligation shrank with time. We only have one direction to go and that is our total obligation will go up or stay the same. 3-4 years ago I would say up was a certainty. In the last 18 months I have decided we as a society can not afford “normalized” rates. I put that in quotes because we are at a new normal when it comes to rates i.e. We went into negative territory in many countries.
I fear this new normal because much of our public pension system depends on a savings interest rate of 5-6%. More worried about CPP and OAS than civil service pension as losing their pension wouldn’t have a dramatic impact on society. Losing CPP and OAS will.
Can’t wait to see Fridays blog.
Izzy Bedibida
at 8:59 pm
Excellent points. I argue that even though the total payments are the same when dollar equalization is factored in, the total dollar amount to be re-payed was considerably less.
This made debt retirement easier, as there was much less debt to start with.
Chris
at 5:26 pm
“Today we announced the cancellation of mass events permitted by the City through to June 30th. While the City recognizes the importance of special events and festivals to the livability and vitality of the city, protecting the health and safety of residents is of primary concern.
City staff are working closely with event organizers to help mitigate the impacts of cancellations wherever possible and we look forward to Toronto’s festivals and events being featured prominently as part of the city’s recovery from the impact of #COVID19.”
– Toronto Mayor John Tory, March 31, 2020
https://twitter.com/JohnTory/status/1245091076651864066
So, do we all agree yet that the Covid-19 pandemic isn’t just sensationalism by the media?
Chris
at 5:28 pm
In other news:
“In a hidden camera investigation, the program sent an employee to visit five randomly selected real estate brokers. He pretended to be a client wishing to acquire a luxury residence in Montreal and told the brokers that he intended to pay with money from drug trafficking and that he would never give his ID.
After a meeting, all five brokers agreed to work with the false client, including his condition for using a nominee. Three of them sent a draft pre-filled offer to purchase.
Under the Proceeds of Crime (Money Laundering) and Terrorist Financing Act, real estate brokers and agencies are required to report suspicious transactions and attempted suspicious transactions to the Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada (FINTRAC) when they have reasonable grounds to suspect a money laundering offence.”
https://www.remonline.com/radio-canada-catches-brokers-in-money-laundering-sting/
Yet more evidence that FINTRAC and AML legislation needs to be strengthened, rather than gutted, as some here previously suggested.
Chris
at 6:17 pm
“‘There’s a lot of fear’ about defaults, raising mortgage rates even as BoC cuts: RateSpy’s McLister
Mortgage rates have not been responding in lockstep with the Bank of Canada’s rate cuts as the big banks become more wary of the risks of lending in the current economic environment.”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/~1931635
Chris
at 6:25 pm
In other news:
“Soaring Unemployment Means One in Five Canadians Could Miss Payments
Millions of Canadians may soon find themselves unable to pay their bills as the Covid-19 shutdown puts them out of work, with no certainty to when normal activity will resume.
A new survey by Nanos Research Group for Bloomberg News shows that nearly one in five Canadians are at risk of missing a major payment in the next four weeks. That includes payments for a mortgage, loan, rent or credit card. Those 18 to 34 years old are the most vulnerable, with 26% saying they are prone to missing payments.”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/soaring-unemployment-means-one-in-five-canadians-could-miss-payments-1.1415149
Appraiser
at 6:37 pm
Dow closes out the worst first quarter in history: March 31, 2020
https://edition.cnn.com/business/live-news/stock-market-news-today-033120/index.html
Not to worry, it’s just a head-fake.
Chris
at 7:36 pm
Fifth time turned out to be the charm! Well done, appraiser!
Derek
at 9:24 pm
TSX too. Regarding this tit for tat of: housing market gonna crash! versus Financial markets crashed! There’s something I don’t understand. I get that there’s the never ending debate about which market performs better over the long term… but is it not relatively true that both financial markets and RE move in the same direction? Not at the same time, but inevitably linked? Do you know what I mean (even if I’m way off base)? Briefly, is it even possible for RE to be unscathed considering the broader market devastation? Or, if RE was leading the way down wouldn’t financial markets get hit too? Isn’t the competition moot? Peso for your thought ????
Chris
at 9:33 pm
Inflation dictates that most assets will appreciate over time. But I do agree with you, they are going to be linked. In good economic times, when people are working and wages are growing, both stocks and real estate will grow.
As for real estate vs equities, Robert Shiller has examined this in the United States:
“It would perhaps be smarter, if wealth accumulation is your goal, to rent and put money in the stock market, which has historically shown much higher returns than the housing market,” said Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller at a Standard and Poor’s conference last week.
Shiller notes that the comparison between stock returns and home value returns is rough, given that stocks pay cash dividends and housing pays “in kind,” in the form of housing services; that is, you get to live in a house.
Still, if you remove all forms of dividends and compare the Standard and Poor’s U.S. composite stock price index since 1871 and Shiller’s own real U.S. home price index since 1890, the stock market capital gains outperform the housing market’s capital gains. Both, he notes, are smaller than one might expect.“
https://www.cnbc.com/2014/12/08/where-to-put-your-cash-a-house-or-a-stock.html
Derek
at 9:50 pm
I was trying to steer away from the “which is better” debate. My point was more the idea that you’re both right. All of your posts emphasizing all the negatives impacting the main factors typically associated with measuring real estate market health are down right scary. Similarly the outlook (and recent past) for financials is downright scary. I guess I’m suggesting you guys could consider calling it a truce! Who cares who has the better boat when they’re both at the bottom of the sea!
Lastly, how come you haven’t commented on or posted about immigration and what that situation suggests? Robust immigration is usually argued on Appraisers side of the dispute. Those numbers must be impacted these days, no?
Chris
at 10:32 pm
I think we’re both right in terms of the current situation being negative for most asset classes.
However, my overarching argument since I began posting here in early 2017 has been that GTA real estate is overvalued and susceptible to correction. Between high prices, paltry income growth, bloated household debt levels, increased speculative activity, etc, I have felt that, in a big economic shock, a well diversified global portfolio will do better than, say a detached home in Markham.
As we now seem to be facing that big economic shock, I guess we’ll now see how much each one declines, and how fast they each are to recover.
Given that the borders are all but closed, immigration would seem to have been halted. I haven’t really touched on it though, because for one, it has only been a couple of weeks of this situation, which likely wouldn’t materially change annual immigration numbers, and for two, none of us have any idea if/when immigrant flows will resume. If we’re back to normal by mid-April, probably won’t result in much of a slowdown. If we keep the economy frozen, the borders shuttered, and subsequently enter a deep recession (which could trigger emigration of non-permanent residents), well that’s a different story. But seems way too early at this point to guess either way.
Chris
at 7:46 pm
“IMF head says global economy now in recession
The head of the International Monetary Fund said Friday it is clear that the global economy has now entered a recession that could be as bad or worse than the 2009 downturn
Asked if the United States was now in recession, she noted that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had said Thursday that America “ may well be in a recession.” She said she believed not only the United States but many other advanced economies and a number of developing countries had already entered downturns.”
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/imf-head-global-economy-now-recession-69843184
But don’t worry everyone, Jim Pattison says Canada isn’t in a recession!
Derek
at 10:27 pm
Here’s mire from our LG:
https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/news/200994/covid-19-will-canadian-house-prices-fall.aspx
Chris
at 10:34 pm
Interesting stuff, thanks for sharing that link, Derek.