Every once in a while, I like to spend four hours researching data for a single blog post.
A handful of condos in downtown Toronto have a whopping ten percent or more of the units currently available for sale. The following blog might shock you…
I often muse about certain buildings in Toronto where there is so much inventory on the market that it makes a sale near-impossible.
Well on Wednesday afternoon, as I sat on my porch in Idaho after a glorious round of golf, I wondered what it would take to make a list of all the over-supply in the Toronto condo market and try and determine the most saturated buildings.
I spent the better part of four hours going through MLS, and the results were shocking.
I wasn’t looking for the sheer volume of units for sale, but rather the percentage of units in a given building.
How can you evaluate whether 30 units for sale in a building is a lot? There could be 300 units in that building, thus 10%, or there could be 600 units in that building, thus only 5%. Therefore, I’ve listed these condos in order of percentage of units currently available for sale.
I should add a disclaimer here:
1) These numbers are as of Wednesday afternoon, and there may have been some sales or new listings.
2) Data on existing buildings was confirmed through two sources – www.urbandb.com and www.skyscraperpage.com. It’s very tough to find out exactly how many units are in a given building (for example, one source might say 422, one might say 432), but I’ve done my best to confirm all the numbers involved.
So without further adieu, I give you the most over-saturated buildings in the City of Toronto!
#1 – Victory Condos at 478 King Street West
19.4%
There are currently a whopping 34 units for sale in this building, and the building itself is not that large – 175 units, approximately. I checked three sources, and two others had this building at 175 and 177 respectively, so there is no glaring error here.
19.4%. Can you imagine? Just try and put that in perspective. My building has 330 units, and that’s like saying 65 units are currently available for sale. I think we usually have 3-4 at any given time when the market is very busy, but they sell within a week.
Can we assume that Victory Condos was primarily bought by investors?
One in Five. One in five. I can’t even begin to fathom…
#2 – James Cooper Mansion at 28 Linden Street
15.2%
There are 41 units for sale here and only 270 units in total in the building.
It was a neat idea – they took a historic Toronto building and kept the structure while building a tower atop. They’ve successfully done this all over Toronto – my building at 230 King Street is a classic example, and there are plans to do the same with the building across the street at what is being called “King Plus Condos.”
But it looks extremely out of place, as the above photo clearly demonstrates.
Prices of the 41 units range from $289,900 to $799,000.
#3 – Parade at 15 IceBoat Terrace
12.8%
This one was a bit difficult to assess, since “Parade” will consist of FOUR towers, but the largest tower of 38 storeys is currently registered as TSCC 2157, so these aren’t assignments of existing agreements – these are resale condominiums!
I’ve been making fun of the name “Iceboat Terrace” for quite some time, and I’d say that the market for this building is currently ice-cold. Pun FULLY INTENDED!
And how come this rendering shows so much green-space, trees, ponds, and walkways? Where’s the Lake Shore and Gardiner?
#4 – Neptune 2 at 209 Fort York Boulevard
12.6%
I’m glad this one made the list because I’ve often told anybody that will listen to completely disregard any real estate in CityPlace or with a “Fort York” or “Fleet” address.
There are 48 units currently for sale at Neptune 2, and only 380 units in the 16-storey tower. Prices dip as low as $184,900 for bachelors, and the highest price unit currently available on the market is $548,800.
Neptune 1 at 215 Fort York Blvd, for your information, has 22 units on the market out of 481, or a mere 4.6%.
I guess it’s just a simple case of “Which building in the worst condo cluster in Toronto was just registered and has investors fighting for the few buyers crazy enough to want to live here?” Right now, it’s places like Parade, Neptune, and the next one…
#5 – West Harbour City II at 21 Grand Magazine Street
10.0%
“Grand Magazine” is yet another stupid name I have enjoyed making fun of, and with 10% of all existing units in the building currently available for sale, perhaps residents should get a second job selling magazines just in case their investments plummet like a Greek bank stock…
I’ve never been a fan of this area, since living in between the Gardiner and Lake Shore doesn’t really appeal to me, so I think it’s going to be twice as difficult for the market to absorb all this inventory. First, you have to find people that actually want to live here! Second, you have to convince buyers that there’s nothing wrong with the fact that 32 units are for sale in this 325-unit building.
#6 – M5V Life at 375 King Street West
9.9%
I actually called and left a message with a sales agent at this project a few weeks back, and that was AFTER I had emailed them. I never heard back. Perhaps that’s why they have TWELVE units on MLS right now from the developer alone.
There are 30 units listed for sale at the moment, and this project has 304 total units in the building.
M5V drops a dime with a dirty ten percent of the building up for grabs.
There’s nothing wrong with the location – it’s prime, right on King at Blue Jays Way. But I’m not convinced that this area can support the prices that units are trading for, no better explained by the very next building on the list…
#7 – Festival Tower at 80 John Street
9.0%
It’s not like people were just given occupancy here; in fact, that 9.0% figure would have been a whole lot higher if I’d compiled this list a few months ago!
I’m not sure if the Monroe unit is attracting more buyers than the Nicholson, but any way you put it, I wouldn’t pay more to live in a building because they’ll pick up your drycleaning from your Dicaprio suite.
There are 41 units for sale at 80 John Street, and 458 total in the building. Many of these units have been for sale for over three months, and many of them have the “PC” icon next to the listing for “Price Change.”
Oh well, it’s not like they’re building another tower next door.
Oh, wait…..Cinema Tower……right…
Honourable Mentions:
8.4% – “Luna 1″ at 10 Capreol Court (27 units for sale out of 320 total in the building)
8.2% – “Panorama” at 38 Dan Leckie Way (33/401)
7.4% – “Bliss and Liberty Towers” at 55-59 East Liberty Street (39/528)
6.1% – “Luna Vista” at 25 Capreol Court (23/378)
5.2% – “Quay West @ Tip Top” at 90 Stadium (19/364)
So there you have it, folks!
Am I the only one laughing here?
Imagine listing your condo for sale and competing against FORTY other sellers. It’s happening all over the downtown core right now!
So having read this, I think that readers will develop one of two stances on the subject – if they take a stance at all.
1) Those who live in these buildings and/or these areas will stand up and say that they don’t care about the volume of inventory because they LOVE where they live! They love the pool at Grand Magazine and the spaghetti tree at Capreol. They feel bad for all the snobs who don’t want to live in their building, and they’re sure that once the inventory is absorbed, buyers will rue the day they passed up the chance to buy here!
2) Those who have been predicting the real estate apocolypse for seven of the last seven years will use this as evidence that the Toronto market is over-saturated and the implosion will take place in T-30 seconds.
What do I take away from this data?
Well, I’ve long maintained that there is “good real estate” and “bad real estate” in Toronto. When the market is red hot, you can buy some crappy unit in CityPlace off floor plans in pre-construction and flip it a few years later to make money. But if and when the market turns, you’ll want to be holding “good real estate.”
I don’t think that any of the buildings in this blog post constitute “good real estate.” Ironically, I think that Victory Condos has the best shot down the line of being “good real estate,” since it’s a small-ish building (12 storeys) and in a great location on King West. But until that massive glut of inventory gets absorbed, we can’t even have this conversation.
I think Festival Tower will hold some appeal to those that want to be “high and mighty” but can’t quite get there, although the impending construction of Cinema Tower worries me.
I also think that the area just south of Bloor & Sherbourne is beginning to change, and the James Cooper Mansion has potential, if only there weren’t 41 units for sale there.
As for the rest – it’s all junk.
It’s all CityPlace junk and I’ll argue this till the day I die, or until Concord Adex has me taken out.
It should come as no surprise that HALF of the condos on this list are in CityPlace or the surrounding area of Fort York (which is still considered CityPlace by some), and it certainly is no coincidence.
Now – for those of you that are reading this and happen to own in one of the twelve buildings listed above, please use the forum below to squish your sour grapes…
Graham
at 8:33 am
When you mentioned you had spent four hours working on this blog post, I was hoping for a well edited and executed vacation sex tape, but this was pretty good too.
I know this is called Toronto Realty Blog and not Hamilton Realty Blog, but any insight on 468 Ottawa St. N in the Hammer (other than being a completely sketchy building)? MLS says there are 51 units available. Duplicate entries? The reason I was looking at Hamilton real estate is the old Hell’s Angels club house was/is for sale. It’s a beauty at 269 Lottridge St. It’s not listed anymore, so maybe it sold.
Jeff316
at 11:14 am
The old club house sold, and it’s being turned into a pannini place, I think
Bullet holes a selling feature, maybe?
Kkerr
at 9:17 am
Do a blog on the most desirable address’ in the city?! Always curious to see where the big demand is.
I also agree that City Place is a big pile of nothing impressive. Typical stacked on top of typical
johnny chase
at 9:43 am
Interesting post Dave – a great eye opener. TREB should probably have in on the MLS sheet the % or # of units currently for sale in a buildng, but that would go against what they stand for. Just like the ‘Days on Market” – one change to the MLS listing and it re-sets to zero. What’s with that?
The problem for most buyers (and agents) is that they do little homework for this sort of information. If I’m looking for a condo in the $250-$275 range, an agent will tell me there are 3 units for sale in the development we should see, but he doesn’t say that there are 25 other units currently for sale. Its definately something most buyers would want to know – and should know.
All this just makes me believe that this condo market is heading toward a bubble. People (mostly young buyers) make uninformed decisions, guided by agents who for the most part, have no statistical understanding of the market in which they are selling. They use the propoganda put out by the Toronto Real Estate Board who has it’s own agenda.
Even the ‘good real estate’ will be inpacted by downward price pressures on the ‘bad real estate’. If the price of bad real estate drops 10-15 percent due to a glut on inventory, then the good real estate will eventually drop too – maybe not to the same extent, but it’s not immune to the oversupply of buildings down the street or around the corner.
David Fleming
at 11:01 am
@ Johnny Chase
I completely agree with your last point, and I’m not denying it.
Let’s say, for argument’s sake, that the market drops 15% in total. That means the “average” condo price has dropped 15%; but overall – some more, some less.
I think that the “good real estate” I refer to might drop 7% in this case, and the CityPlace junk might drop 22%.
If and when a market correction comes, the good real estate is not by any means immune.
Victoria
at 4:11 pm
Dave,
From a construction and engineering standpoint, can you explain how Cityplace is considered to be sub standard compared other similar priced buildings in C1/C8? Thanks.
lui
at 10:37 am
I like TipTop..very retro and quality suites..wonder why there are always so many for sale…hmmmm…David enlighten me…..
David Fleming
at 12:25 pm
@ Lui
I know you’ve got a unit there; I actually thought of you when I was researching this topic, and said to myself, “Lui isn’t gonna be happy…”
Like I said in the post above – this is quite normal for a good percentage of new buildings. There are always investor-owned suites that will be put on the market as soon as the building is regsitered.
In the case of 90 Stadium, it’s been registered for a while now, but I think it’s just taking some time for the inventory to be absorbed.
One potential issue that comes to mind: THE VIEW. This is a waterfront building, and many buyers won’t see a purpose to living on the water if they can’t SEE the water!
lui
at 12:05 am
Actually I dont owned one there…TipTop on 637 Lakeshore…my GF owns a unit at Quay Tiptop….man you got a great memory…..
Chuck
at 11:10 am
YES David! Truly one of your best posts of the year, and worth every minute of research.
M
at 1:44 pm
great post…why don’t they just rent the place out?
Thcondofitz
at 1:34 pm
Some developers do not allow owners to rent their units out before registration. Also, some of these investors might not be able to carry another mortgage. They are most likely invested in more than one of these properties and thought they could flip their investments before registration, at a profit.
Marina
at 2:01 pm
I agree with kkerr above – I would love to see your list of the top 5 most desirable buildings in the city.
I know you did a post some time ago on what you would buy if you won the lottery.
But what I would love is:
– your top 5 buildings to buy a 1-bedroom condo
– your top 5 neighborhoods to buy an entry-level to mid-range (for the area) home
That would be really helpful going into the fall market.
Jeff316
at 11:15 am
Agreed, that would be interesting. I thought this was a pretty unique post.
buk
at 2:06 pm
so what would your offer strategy be in purchasing a unit in one of these units? low ball everyone and hope for the best?
clifford
at 4:32 pm
Festival Tower is interesting. The units are overvalued. Who in their right mind is going to pay $450K for 600 sqft? Nice units, but not worth it.
Serena A
at 4:45 pm
Thanks very much for this post David, very informative to a prospective buyer doing research. I’m surprised by the King West Condos on this list.
As for Festival Tower, do you think the recent falling glass incidents could have had any impact on the # of units for sale, and how long they’ve been listed on the market for?
G____
at 6:04 pm
Nice post David,
I’d be interested in the raw data on 15 IBT.
I’m renting there (don’t laugh, it was time/distance from Toronto crunch) and play a game counting lit apartments at night (looks like less than half on each side of the tower – add some for those not home, still under 2/3rds full), the parking garage for both that and 10 Capreol is less than half full (rows of spaces with dust and a forlorn tire track or two) and the lockers are about 1/3rd used.
Richard Eng
at 11:03 am
Okay, I’ll bite. I have a unit at West Harbour City II. It has a fantastic view of the lake, island airport, and CN Tower. I revel in the view every morning when I wake up. Just seeing the sunlight play off the water uplifts me.
My floorplan is fabulous. For the space (1161 sq ft), I couldn’t ask for a better floorplan. It’s very efficient and it has great flow. After my interior designer did her magic, my condo is drop dead gorgeous (there’ll be no need for “staging” when it comes time sell!).
I’ve thrown several dinner parties, and everyone drools over my condo. I have no doubt that I will be able to easily sell my unit when the time comes. And that’s an important point: I anticipate selling 5-7 years down the road. Who can say what the market will be like then? Will today’s “glut” go away?
I love living in this area. The moderating influence of the water is terrific during the summer (though winters should be brutal). I love walking along Queen’s Quay. And I’m only half an hour’s walk from Chinatown, which I’ve taken advantage of frequently (great exercise). In other words, this is a great location.
As for the street name, there is an historical significance to it, if you believe Heritage Toronto:
“The Grand Magazine holding Fort York’s gunpowder supply stood at the north end of this street. In the Battle of York, 1813, the retreating British detonated the magazine with devastating impact on the American attack.”
I love the name!
Richard Eng
at 11:34 am
And TTC access is dreamy. Right in front of the building, I can catch either the Bathurst 511 or Union Station 509 streetcars!
Within a couple of years, there will be a Loblaws Superstore across the street. Incredibly convenient.
Since I only paid $369 psf for my unit, no matter what happens in the condo market, I will be largely insulated from financial disaster. Isn’t pre-construction great?!
Fred Sroka
at 3:18 pm
I fully agree w. everything Mr. Eng says. We have been living here since the building was built, enjoying every day.
It might interest everybody to know that it was just voted ‘best condo of the year’!
Congratulations to our Board and it’s president Vicki Trottier.
Richard Eng
at 10:07 am
The condos on your list have a glut of unsold units for different reasons. In the case of the waterfront condos, I have a theory. Neptune, West Harbour City, and Panorama are well south of the railroad tracks, and even south of the Gardiner. The general perception is that they are too remote and disconnected from the downtown core.
This perception is a sad reflection on how lazy people are. West Harbour City is easily within walking distance of the downtown core. I can walk to Queen & Spadina within 20 minutes. I can walk to King & University within 25 minutes. I’ve been walking to the downtown core this lovely summer nearly every day for the past 3 months! How is West Harbour City disconnected from downtown??
Just how lazy is everyone? I am bemused when I see people at Yorkdale driving around for 10 minutes looking for a parking spot close to the front doors. They refuse to park further away and walk for a few minutes. Unbelievably lazy!
No wonder we have a nation of overweight diabetics and heart attack victims waiting to happen. C’mon, the Fort York condo area is not as remote as you think. Just get off your ass and do the walk.
Scott
at 12:17 am
You make some interesting points Richard, but the problem here is not only the long-ish walk (for some people) to the downtown core. The problem is that, aside from some albeit beautiful waterfront and parkland, there is NOTHING around where you live.
No restaurants. No cafes. No supermarkets. No shopping. No theatres (movie or otherwise). Nothing, unless you count the gas station at Lake Shore and Bathurst.
Now, as you pointed out, in the summer this isn’t a problem. Just go for a 25-minute walk to Chinatown, King West, or Queen’s Quay (though I would argue that Queen’s Quay is also lacking) and you can pretty much find what you’re looking for.
But — and you touched upon this yourself — what about wintertime?
I’ve lived at Queen’s Quay and York St. for five winters now, and even this admittedly superior location is an isolated desert of frigid depression between the months of December and April.
Mild winters can be endured, I suppose… but I guarantee you’ll have a different view of your location once the temperature hits minus-10 not including the “Lake Ontario Wind Chill Bonus.” Going for a cup of joe to avoid going stir crazy will feel like a trek up Vinson Massif.
That lake that you love so much every morning? Odds are that by late February, you’ll come to hate it….
Richard Eng
at 2:04 pm
As I mentioned previously, a ten-minute walk takes you to some pretty good restaurants and cafés at King & Bathurst. Admittedly, they’re not at your front steps, but c’mon, how many condos have front step access to restaurants and cafés?
Also, as I mentioned previously, there *will* be a Loblaws Superstore within a couple of years, right across the street!
Okay, it might be nice to have really, really proximate access to restaurants and stores, but you know what? I like to *choose* my favourite restaurants, and I’ll bet that *your* favourite restaurants are not likely within 100 yards of your home. As for shopping, I usually end up driving or TTCing to the stores that I want to shop at, so having a few arbitrary stores within steps of my home is hardly a benefit.
The only point I’ll agree with you on is winter. But I’ll just point out that a frozen lake can be quite beautiful, too.
Richard Eng
at 2:45 pm
A funny thought occurred to me. David makes a big deal out of outdoor living — that’s why he went out of his way to find a great terrace for his condo. And he’s going to deck it out fully into a private wonderland.
However, terrace living is for good weather only, NOT winter. When I lived in the Lawrence & Avenue Rd area, my house had a nice backyard, but during winter I never used the backyard and deck. Who the hell would want to?!
Winter puts a crimp into everyone’s enjoyment of their home. It was never fun to leave my house on a cold day. It won’t be much different for me here at the waterfront.
Richard Eng
at 3:07 pm
It behooves me to point out that most people in Toronto live in residential neighbourhoods where restaurants, cafés, shops, movie houses, et cetera are NOT within walking distance of their homes. This is particularly true of the burbs, but it’s also true, for example, in the Lawrence/Avenue Rd where I used to own a house. You go outside and you have to walk past block after block of residential houses. How is that different from being surrounded by condo buildings?
And there were no movies theatres near my house. The closest was at Yorkdale mall.
At least I can walk to restaurants and movie theatres. If I want to avoid the cold, I can hop onto a streetcar; it’s a short trip.
I think you overstate your position.
Paul
at 12:03 pm
So Awesome
lui
at 9:29 am
Richard I tend to agree if your on the high floors the view must be amazing but this area feels wrong.Its like your entering a twilight zone of wrong planning by the city and terrible design by the builders.
Richard Eng
at 1:19 pm
I haven’t checked out the other buildings in the area, but my building appears to be well designed. As for city planning, hey, you work with what’s there, and while the area isn’t perfect, I can live with it. I’ve seen worse, eg, Liberty Village. And I agree with David about the CityPlace cluster of condos — it’s a tenement waiting to happen.
I happen to like Fort York. If you want to be really close to the water and to downtown, I can’t think of a better location.
Thecondofitz
at 12:33 am
Are you seriously implying that Fort York (Neptune, Panorama, West Harbour City) is a better area than Liberty Village? If so, it is a preposterous statement of the nth degree. Liberty Village has restaurants, shopping and a real sense of community. What do the aforementioned buildings have to offer? Unopened Tuck Shops and traffic-laden thoroughfares?
David Fleming
at 1:11 am
When IS that tuck shop going to open?
I could really use some Gobstoppers…
Richard Eng
at 12:11 pm
Speaking of traffic-laden thoroughfares, trying to drive in and out of Liberty Village is a frickin’ nightmare. Everytime I drive to the Metro there, I swear under my breath. The roads are utterly insane. Except for opening day at the CNE, I’ve never experienced frustration driving in and out of Fort York.
Now, while there are some nice stores and restaurants in Liberty Village, the area feels a bit like the place in M. Night Shyamalan’s The Village because of the isolated nature.
At the present time, all the construction and dust in Liberty Village is very unpleasant. I choke when I walk around there. Maybe that leaves a bad impression…
Fred Sroka
at 3:31 pm
I love Liberty Village – it is a pleasant 15 min. walk from
21 Grand Magazine St. – Best Condo of the Year.
Richard Eng
at 12:14 pm
BTW, a ten-minute walk up to King & Bathurst takes me to quite a few restaurants, as well. It’s as much of a “community” as in Liberty Village.
Patrick
at 2:43 am
We got a nice huge park, I go fishing across the street, bike trails across the street. The concerts across the street to the North in the summer. They are building a Bathurst/Lakeshore right now. Too much concrete in Liberty village. Still have that old warehouse feel to it. 209/125/231 Fort York from the South side or even like my West view, can see the lake from my balcony. The same old two bars and restaurants in Liberty village get played out real quickly. Just my two cents.
Bill
at 12:10 am
This guy is an idiot. Most of these buildings are just about to be registered or have just been completed. Any building in any city will have a bunch of suites being sold at that time. It is not an accurate measurement of saturation.
Since the author is just coming up with any measurement of saturation, how about I give him some ideas…how about we measure the saturation by speaking to a psychic…they should be able to figure it out the same way you did!
Looking on MLS is NOT an accurate indication. If we were to look on MLS in 2-3 years as soon as 1 Bloor gets closer to registration I guarantee that it will be the most “saturated” but that is just one example. As soon as a building gets close to being finished like most of these buildings people start trying to sell them…that’s just how it goes…in Toronto, in Richmond Hill…EVERYWHERE!
The author is an amateur and is just trying to invoke fear to create an article.
lui
at 10:25 am
http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Local…/ID=2103763823
Concord is in big trouble…hate to see the property value of those units in a few years..even months if its proven……
Franki
at 10:42 am
Have to agree with bill, if u know anything about new buildings. By the time the buildings almost done or complete, many buyers are offloading there units. That always happens, nothing abnormal here people. No I don’t live in any buildings above, I have a friend that lives in liberty village and yea it is brutal for traffic, it’s isolated and all they have is the streetcar. Everyone drives in the area, it feels like the burbs.
Mila
at 1:06 pm
I don’t get the point you are trying to make by listing the “saturation”. Is that how you classify worst properties? Sounds to me like you are looking for another excuse to trash the buildings that you dislike. All these buildings in your list are brand new – and it is very normal for investors to start selling off their property. This means nothing. Eventually it will normalize.
You are starting to sound more and more errogant in your blogs. Your opinions are very subjective and immature. At first I found your posts interesting, but slowly I lost respect. Good luck to you in future, but you just lost me…
Richard Eng
at 10:15 pm
I have to agree with Mila. I was drawn to David’s blog a while back because he seemed to be the only voice of reason in the real estate market. His posts were honest and rational and enlightening.
However, he is now beginning to get sloppy. And deeply biased. And profoundly arrogant. This once-charming blog is quickly spiralling into nonsensical self-aggrandizement.
I’ll continue to follow the blog a while longer in the hope that David gets back to writing enlightening posts. But frankly, my patience only goes so far…
Fred Sroka
at 3:33 pm
Again – I agree with your comment.
Emily
at 9:51 am
I’ve been an avid reader of your blogs for the past 4-5 years…. never once felt the need to comment as you are usually quite accurate and present good points in each and every one of em… but seriously, this hate fest on Cityplace while justifiable has caused you to start grouping everything west of Spadina as trash…..and you’re starting to make up ways to prove your point, this whole idea of over-saturation really does not make any sense if you are not factoring in the age of the property, if it does, then please clear this up for a “simple minded young first time buyer” like myself (since apparently being young and making a first purchase seems to imply that you’re definitely an idiot 🙂
oh, and you have 2 buildings on your beloved king street that made it to the top of your list, how can this be?!?! and since you agree that both good and bad real estate will suffer should the market crash (with no accurate estimate on the extent to which would suffer and why) what was the point of this post again???
and finally, the small degree of arrogance in your writing used to be funny, and somewhat attractive, now, it’s just plain annoying, and you even went as far as classifying your readers into two blobs: people that will fend for their properties, and people that would start screaming and panicking over the looming real estate apocalypse, while YOU, thee one and only Fabulous Flemming would form a reasonable opinion and interpret the data sensibly and rationally (crap data may I add)….
sorry David, me joining Mila and looking for another real estate blog…
but hey, you had a really good run, and you’re probably a really nice person, you just let all of your moderate real estate successes get to your head 🙂
David Fleming
at 10:32 am
@ Emily
“Flemming” only has one “m”…
Emily
at 10:42 am
Ahahahaha….
I sincerely apologize for the incorrect spelling of your last name, and since I’ve learned the correct spelling (information which is very important to me of course) I no longer have any business visiting this site…
Best of luck with your work Fabulous Fleming!!!
Cynthia
at 6:50 pm
David I have to agree with the last few posts. It wasn’t long ago you were saying the same thing about Casa–another building in pre-registration at the time.
I daresay any building now being built in Toronto will have a large percentage of investors who will wish to divest before actually taking title….to disparage these building on the basis of your questionable “research” is irresponsible to say the least.
I am disappointed….:(
Andrew Levy
at 10:20 am
Hi David, I’m a long-time reader but a first time commentor. However unlike the person above, I’m not going to read your blog for free, see something I don’t like, and then take my “business” elsewhere. I guess this is what I found so funny that I just had to respond: these people are reading your blog for free and they’re completley anonymous, and they don’t do any business with you. Yet they feel entitled to the point where any time you write something they disagree with, you’re expected to feel like you should have cleared it with them first. The Internet is filled with anonymous commentors who can’t write, can’t think, or can’t come out of their own shells yet they can slander any author for any reason. I’m glad to see that you haven’t responded, although I think we’d all love to see 400-600 words on “Why I Don’t Care What You Think.”
Thanks again for all the free reads.
Continued Success,
Andrew Levy (aka not anonymous)
Scott Poole
at 12:27 am
Excellent comment, Andrew. My thoughts exactly.
Nathalie K
at 11:43 am
Hi David,
It is my first post on your blogs… I am a new agent and i am trying to read as much a possible other info on different RE sites, including yours … not only OREA, CREA and TREB (whatever they want us to believe)…
Well i learned a lot from your comments and i appreciate them ,and they are for FREE.
The people do not like to hear the truth and sometimes get offended… but we need reality check…you are responsible for whatever you said, but not for “how readers understand it or reply to it”. You express your opinion…and i think its just real, and maybe not what investors would like to hear!
Keep posting
Nathalie K
Anonymous
at 11:26 am
Okay I’ll throw my hat in the ring here, but I’m going to remain “anonymous!” ha!
I’m 42 years old and I’ve been using the same Realtor for 18 years. I read this blog every single day (my Realtor does not have a blog, nor know what one is) and while I would never stray from my Relator (who is also an extended family member), David is the first person i would choose if I ever did.
I don’t agree with everything he writes, but probably about 75% of the things. That’s a pretty good percentage, considering anything more than 50% is reason enough to read a blog on a regular basis.
What draws me to this blog, other than the obvious controversy that comes up a couple times per month, is the honesty and opinion that other Realtors lack. People are calling David “biased” as if that’s a bad thing! This is the whole reason why i read this blog! I want to know how somebody actually feels about a property or area, bias included! Too many blogs are 100% positive all the time. Without naming names, there are two other prominent Toronto realtor blogs that do nothing but spread real estate joy and it’s tiring. Nothing but floor plans and prices for new construction, and I’ve never seen one of these two guys come out and say, “I don’t like this condominium.”
Anyhoo, that’s my two cents for what its worth. Agreed though that anonymous commentors (myself included) should have no bearing on how a journalist conducts him or herself. Most realtors can’t spell or write, yet David is witty, creative, clearly intelligent and knowledgable, and could probably write a book in the tiem it takes most realtors to write an email.
I’ll keep reading as long as you keep writing. Glad to see the negativity has no affect on you.
Brent
at 5:48 pm
I’m a little ashamed to admit that I just spent about 30 minutes reading through this entire thread but I was astounded at the outpouring of hate!
I don’t think a lot of these readers have any inkling as to how your business works. You did exactly what you set out to do: you shook the tree and a lot fell out of it. You set the table by saying you were going to write a must read post, and now you have over 40 comments. Case closed. Readers don’t realize that this is the Howard Stern affect: you need haters AND lovers.
But they also don’t realize (forgive me for pointing out the obvious) that you only get paid when people buy or sell real estate through you. So for the two ladies that read your blog and don’t do business with you, good riddance! They don’t see this but they’re probably too busy reading blogs on the internet at their dead-end 9-5 jobs to ever notice.
Did you ever think youd end up with 40 comments on this post? Something tells me you did, and your lack of response says that you’re just fine and dandy with the result.
JoeyFLambert
at 9:38 pm
“It’s all CityPlace junk and I’ll argue this till the day I die, or until Concord Adex has me taken out.”
Blah, blah, blah…Pure nonsense….keep dreaming
The reason half of your listings are Cityplace-related, David, is because Cityplace is the largest condo area in the city and pre-eminent symbol of the Toronto’s “condo-boom”, so of course, Cityplace will be included. Thats just precisely where most of the condo developments are. The area streching from Cityplace to King West is where everyone wants to live. This is why every new condo sales centre is in and around that area. Its simply where the demand is and therefore, the same very place you will blog about. All the cranes in Toronto are on the West side radius in the Entertainment District and just a little south of Front St.
Cityplace started the condo boom, symbolizes the condo boom and the condo boom will probably end with Cityplace. No Cityplace – No King West.
Before Cityplace, King West did not exist. It was with the growth of Cityplace, King West began its growth.
Its like analyzing causation by way of symptoms and it is precisely what makes your opinions so weak.
Your hatred/jealousy is clouding your judgement. Cityplace will remain a desirable area because being close to the water, king west, theatre, skydome, next door to Ritz Carlton, etc. will always be desirable and is becoming more and more so BECAUSE of Cityplace. Buildings in SOHO/NYC are not even near as nice as Cityplace’s and prices in SOHO dwarf the rest of NYC.
And yeah….I live in Cityplace and love it. I have stayed plenty of other building in Toronto (including the coveted Thompson and Soho Hotel), I can tell none of them compare to my building at all. They suck. I can also absolutely garuntee you my place is worth more than double than yours and there is no way in heaven’s hell I would ever live in Bloor and Sherbourne. Shame on you for even suggesting that boring area as an option. EAST side will continue to struggle because the West Side is where the energy is. Good luck with that.
lui
at 9:41 am
“CityPlace started the condo boom”…..hahahha….First time I heard the word desirable used to describe City Place.
Simon
at 12:23 pm
I agree most part of it, thanks a lot, actually I am intented to buy one of the building on the lists, “James Cooper”, but when I see so many on listings for sale, so I’m thinking it might go down a little bit, so why don’t wait and lets see. I’m not in hurry.
Franki
at 12:59 pm
@simon, why would u think price would go down because of 40 units for sale?
Simon
at 7:14 pm
it’s down already, compare the prices sold in July and August.
Simon
at 7:16 pm
I’ll make an offer these days,see whether we get it.
Franki
at 10:34 am
Well, listing price and price sold is a different story.
george
at 7:37 pm
Perhaps you should do a feature on the MOST demanded condo buildings in Toronto.
Ted Paterson
at 2:39 pm
Friends, all of this debate is not necessary. Sure there’s too much inventory, too bad many condos wedged into crappy locations etc… But the real reason why most condo owners will one day be punished………wait for it……disposable buildings! The quality (or lack thereof) of new build condo construction is laughable! Oh that’s right, you’ve all bought into that sham dream of having to own your own home—even if that means buying a tiny cardboard box with bad ventilation!
And let’s not forget those condo fees! Wow, and people get mad at the banks for bending them over! Runaway condo fees that condo boards invariably find reason to hike will also be another critical reason for the condo market crash. It’s just a matter of time (sooner than later, however) until your monthly condo fee rivals your monthly mortgage payment. Why are you paying this kind of money? Because you’re too cheap to replace your windows and roof every 20 years in a house? Oh, and you don’t have to shovel your driveway in a condo. Right, that’s another reason for condo living? Oh damn, you could pay to have your (and your neighbors) driveway cleared by a pro for much less than you are paying in condo fees. Yeah, getting back to the bad construction and cheap materials. Recently I was carrying a a bag of semi-heavy groceries into a new build condo unit owned by a friend of mine. I accidentally, but gently, hit the wall with the bag—-guess what happened??? I put a hole in the drywall! If you have kids living in one of these condos, it wouldn’t be long before your walls looked like something out of a war zone. And isn’t great when you can tell what your neighbors are having for dinner, courtesy of your ducts? “Honey, I’m home. Are you boiling cabbage?” “No dear, that’s coming from the heating duct. Do you mind opening a window. I know it’s minus 10 outside, but the smell will soon pass. I hope they’re cooking pie for dessert.”
Let’s not forget about those snazzy floor to ceiling windows. Sure, they look cool, but your condo fees will be heating up when it comes time to replace them in 5 to 10 years. Or maybe the condo board will just pass a special assessment that will cover the cost. I hope you have ample cupboard space because you’re going to have to stock up on a lot of Kraft Dinner. You sure as heck won’t be dining out at those nearby, overpriced cafes, restaurants, and bistros when you have to budget all of your net pay just to cover your living expenses. Mark my words, condo fees will be the bane of the condo market!
Ahhh, the joys of condo living. Get out while you still can!
James
at 8:34 am
This stat on condo inventories is great. Any changes in the buildings in the top 10 in the 7 months since this column was originally posted? Up or down movements on a building by building basis is insightful for the future prospects for each development, and likewise an overall lift/decline in inventory levels will speak to the condo market on the whole. Thanks again for taking the time to put this together.
Amit
at 5:22 pm
Pretty much all of those buildings were completed within the last year or less, some only just before this blog post was written. Hence, they all would have a higher level of inventory for sale because a certain percentage of units are bought by investors at pre-construction prices who are looking to sell on completion. It is impossible for all that inventory to be absorbed immediately, and it can regularly take several months before any new building in the downtown core is back to normal inventory levels. This is a vital point that should be taken into consideration.
That being said, here is a breakdown of the most recent numbers…I’ll give you the top 5 buildings on the list. This is as of TODAY.
#1) Victory Condos at 478 King West, 15 units available.
#2) James Cooper Mansion at 28 Linden St, 11 units available
#3) Parade at 15 Ice Boat Terrace, 26 units available
#4) Neptune 2 at 209 Fort York, 14 units available.
#5) West Harbour City II at 21 Grand Magazine St, 14 units available.
For all of those buildings, the units available are way lower now, than at the time the blog was written. Isn’t that interesting. What I can tell you is that there are other buildings now that are over-saturated, and guess what, they are mostly the brand new buildings that have just been registered.
James
at 11:33 am
That’s helpful thanks. So if Victory (using that one as an example) had 34 units for sale in August and only 15 available now does that mean that 19 ended up selling? I would guess that some units were pulled off the market, and conversely that some additional units not counted in the original 34 were offered up and sold in the interim. Is there a way in MLS to track exactly how many Victory units have actually sold in these 7 months?
Lisa Andrews
at 7:43 am
David I’ve been reading your blog for a few months now. However, after reading this Cityplace trash talk I seriously doubt I would ever go on your blog again. Who are you to make all these comments? Can you even become a developer yourself? If so, there will always be critics and supporters. Cityplace and any other condos in downtown Toronto all have issues of their own. For example, West Harbor City is a pretty pathetic condo in itself. I’m sure most people would agree with that. Also liberty west is another no so great area. But again whose to say it is or isn’t. Stop your bashing. You just appear to be a hater. Btw your blog should really be shut down now. Who are you? Just another Realtor… Nothing special. Actually your just a hater … Can’t build your own condos so let’s bash other successful developers. PATHETIC!!!!
David Fleming
at 6:47 pm
@ Lisa Andrews
“Your blog should be shut down.”
By who? The World Police?
Have a nice day.
basra
at 5:30 am
Am seriously thinking of buying a 2 bed condo in a good location in Toronto, any suggestions as to the right area for both long term investment purpose and for quality of living. I have resided outside of Toronto for over 20 years now seriously thinking of relocating 🙂 I also would consider something off plan ready within a year or so.
regards
TO Resident
at 3:44 am
You clearly have resentment towards the developers of City Place – it’s clear in your words; of all the buildings in your list, you highlight them, and they are not at the top of your list; possibly because the development there has negatively impacted your property value.
Your data is garbage – you’re suggesting that at the time your writing there were more than 200 units listed for sale on MLS at one time, which is false.
You’re an idiot. Get a real job.
m
at 3:41 pm
At 21 grand magazine street they charge a nonrefundable fee of $250 upon moving in even if you are just renting out a room in their building.. I asked them what is this money for and the management told me that it is an actual by-law. First of all, if it was a by-law, all of the buildings would require a deposit of $250 upon moving in, and this is not the case. After I pointed it out, they told me that it is for the management to manage the place. Is this is even legal? Why do I have to pay $250 just to be able to move in to the building?! They also told me that when people move in and out they damage things and its for repairs too. Well, why do they then need an additional refundable $500 certified cheque in case I damage something?! No wonder there are so many empty units as in order to move in you have to come up with so much money up front ($500 certified cheque in case you damage something, nonrefundable $250 just so you can move in, first and last for your rent, and your moving expenses). No wonder Toronto is #70 on the list of the cities with most affordable places to live. I am really wondering if this is legal. I feel like they are simply stealing my money. I am also wondering whether they have to pay a $250 each time they enter the building and sat their butts in order to do their job aka steal other people’s money!!! Well, I guess, I am not eating this month. Well done Toronto, well done.
Harri
at 1:37 pm
Hi M,
it was voted by the board last year, I was lucky not need to pay for it since I moved in during the summer. I personally don’t like it either, but I guess they are trying to minimize the operating cost, so the condo fees could staying low, if you are owner of the unit, this suppose to benefit you in the long run. I just really hope they record this on the annual financial report. plus , the front buzzer has been broken for few months now. I really hope the new management will do a better job. good luck.
William Dipaolo
at 3:09 pm
Question is I am looking at a few condo at cityplace to be exact the luna building.
Would it be a good buy or bad buy.
Laughing all the way to the bank
at 4:42 pm
21 Grand Magazine
Bought in 2006, took possession 2011
Recently Sold for double the original price.
Put that in your pipe and smoke it!
Hindsight
at 9:44 pm
Man this posts reads hilariously in 2017. I stumbled upon it when researching some of these buildings. All of them have basically doubled in price since them. Some more than that. Most of the neighbourhoods mentioned have vastly improved and become more desirable in general.
I guess it doesn’t cost anything to write a blog post!
Miss Anita
at 7:22 pm
Thanks for the info. I kept hearing prices of downtown still maintain or up a little from last year… No idea it was this bad. Lesson learned, never chase the bubbles…sorry for the people who were caught! Hope the market will recover down the road.