With the world changing during every 24-hour news cycle, it’s going to seem like the data set used in today’s blog is already out-dated.
But trust me when I say that we have to work with what we’ve got!
Last week, I set out to determine how sales are doing during the COVID-19 crisis, and I decided to use the downtown condominium market as my data set.
I downloaded all the listings in C01 and C08, with listing start dates between Monday, March 16th and Sunday, March 22nd, and have spent time updating each and every listing.
As I said, this data sounds like it’s already out-of-date. You want to know what’s happening today, and if you can’t look at today, you want to know about yesterday. March 16th? Really? That was an eternity ago! But remember that when a listing comes out on March 19th, in a typical market, there’s a hold-back on offers to a specific “offer date,” usually one week later, ie. the 26th. So in order to get the full picture of what’s happening in this market, we’re always going to be 7-10 days behind.
During the week of March 16th to 22nd, there were 253 new listings for condominiums in C01, C08.
This includes a small percentage of assignments and pre-construction, but rather than “clean” the data, I wanted to leave it as is, to ensure it’s reflective of the overall market.
Here’s the price breakdown of the 253 listings, according to listing price:
$400,000 to $499,999: 20
$500,000 to $599,999: 64
$600,000 to $699,999: 71
$700,000 to $799,999: 38
$800,000 to $899,999: 16
$900,000 to $999,999: 19
$1,000,000 to $2M: 21
$2,000,000 and up: 4
The first thing I would want to know, in this market, is: how many listings still have a “holdback” on offers?
In a typical market, we would expect to see almost everything under $900,000 with a hold-back, unless that listing was:
a) Re-listed higher from a previous failed under-list, hold-back strategy.
b) An assignment or pre-construction
c) A tenanted property for which the agent has, rightly, decided against the under-list, hold-back strategy
There were 253 new listings and 209 of these listings were under $900,000.
In a typical market, I’d expect around 150 listings to have offer dates of the 253, and that’s not to say that no properties above $900K have offer dates. I just find it to be rare.
Of the 253 condos listed between March 16th and March 22nd, only 76 had offer dates.
Only.
Only?
What do we make of that?
Personally, I’m still shocked that 66 listing agents decided to list-low and hold-back! This is a risky time to be enacting that strategy, although consider that we’re talking two weeks ago, and the entire city only entered self-isolation last week.
Let’s not take my guesstimate of “150” listings that might have an offer date in a typical market as carved in stone, but suffice it to say, far fewer condos were listed with offer dates than what we’d expect in a typical market, ie. if these 253 listings came out in February.
I think the debate to be had here is why 76 listings came out with offer dates, and whether or not that was effective.
Of the 253 listings, how many sales were there?
47 firm.
19 conditional.
That’s 66 sales, or 26.1%.
146 of the 253 listings are still on the market.
Now here’s where things get interesting, because if you’re following the math, you’ll see that 253 listings minus 66 sales is actually 187.
What happened to the other 27?
Well, 17 listings were terminated, and 10 were suspended, which is effectively the same thing.
Of these 27 listings that came off the market, how many had offer dates?
20.
That’s twenty listings with offer dates that failed to sell, and were suspended or terminated.
Now that’s not to say that there weren’t any properties selling over list.
In fact, most of the properties that sold did end up selling over list.
With 47 firm sales to examine:
28 sold over list
7 sold at list
12 sold under list
The biggest sale-to-list ratio was for a property on Wellington, listed at $449,999, sold for $550,000; a sale-to-list of 122%.
The lowest sale-to-list ratio was 94% for a property on Grenville, listed at $649,900, sold for $612,000.
The average sale-to-list of the 47 sales was 104%.
The median sale-to-list of the 47 sales was 102%.
Moving away from sales and properties that were terminated/suspended, let’s look at the properties that remain on the market.
110 of the 253 listings remain on the market with no changes.
This means that 36 properties did not sell, but did not remain the same, and that’s where we get into our price changes.
36 properties had changes in price, and for those of you following the logic here, seeing failed offer nights all over the place, you would expect to see a lot of price increases rather than decreases.
That’s exactly what we saw, with 28 of these properties being increased in price, and only 8 being decreased.
You can make the assumption, as I did, that the 28 properties to see price increases were properties with offer nights. Why else would somebody raise a price, you wonder?
So let’s add this up…
20 of the 27 properties that were suspended/terminated had offer dates.
28 properties saw increases in price.
28 properties sold for over-list.
That’s 76 properties, which matches the 76 properties that had “offer dates” at the onset.
The conclusion I’m drawing is that the “list-low, hold-back offer” strategy was a monumental failure, as most anybody would have assumed from the get-to.
76 listings with offer dates. 28 sales. 20 suspensions/terminations. 28 price increases.
And you know what?
Properties listed last week, with offers to follow this week, will fare even worse.
The strategy just makes zero sense.
When you take a $600,000 condo and list it at $499,900, you are betting that anywhere from 40 to 70 buyers will roll through, producing between 10-20 offers, so you can get $625,000 or more.
That strategy works, we all know it. We don’t like it, but we know it, just as we know sunglasses look better when they’re on a model’s face, or a car looks better in Auto Trader when it’s cleaned and shiny, rather than covered in mud.
But during a time when most people are self-isolating, and the Premier and the Mayor are telling people to stay home, why in the WORLD would a real estate agent list a condo for sale that needs dozens of bodies to pass through, in order to secure a successful sale?
One more point about the data above: would you believe that of the 28 sales over-list, this included 4 bully offers?
Yep. During a pandemic, four buyers said, “I have to get my bid in there now!”
To each, their own.
I’m not going to suggest that not a single person in Toronto should be buying real estate right now. Far from it, in fact. Some buyers still need to buy, some want to buy. If you want to take the precautions, and you don’t feel you’re at risk, or risking the health of others, then more power to you.
But holding back offers?
Making bully bids?
Dare I suggest that now might not be the time?
Alright, alright, let me play Devil’s Advocate with, well, myself.
Let’s say that a condo listed at $499,900, that’s “worth” $600,000, and might get $625,000 in February, or May/June, assuming this is all over by then, has an offer date as discussed. And let’s say that a buyer submits a bully offer at $575,000 that’s accepted.
Then, and only then, does the submission of a bully offer make sense.
One of the questions I answered in Monday’s video blog was whether or not sellers need to adjust their expectations, and I would answer that with an emphatic, YES.
The set of emotions that most would-be sellers are going through right now should come as no surprise.
Disappointment, frustration, denial, stubbornness, sorrow, regret, not necessarily in that order. But hopefully these emotions would eventually give way to rationality and acceptance.
Nobody can blame themselves for not seeing a pandemic coming, nor can a seller even blame him or herself for not listing in the first week of February, instead of now. This virus has been in the news since December, and the market in Toronto was red-hot until March 15th. But then things changed on a dime!
So sellers can be disappointed and frustrated, and I don’t blame them for being in denial, and being stubborn. But if a seller needs to sell, then do it. You’re getting 5% less than you would have, could have, should have? Tough. Deal with it. That’s the market.
For those who have the luxury of holding until May, or June, or whenever this “blows over,” then do that too.
But while there may be some bargain-hunters and scavengers out there, I don’t see anything moving at rock-bottom prices. For those with optimism, I’m sorry.
I think we’re going to see a relative freeze on the market for the next week or more, since most Realtors are slow to adapt to a changing market, and are only now seeing how properties aren’t moving. We’ll still see sales, but not in abundance. Nothing like what we’re accustomed to.
A couple more trends I’ve spotted, specifically as it pertains to those listings we examined above:
1) Pre-Emptives Not Updating Listing/Notifying
This was always an issue.
The listing says, “Offers Reviewed On April 6th,” and if you’re going to work with a bully or pre-emptive offer, you must notify all the people who have “expressed interest” in the property, whether that’s an agent with a viewing booked, or a cold-collar.
Of course, that doesn’t mean agents always do it!
I had a bully offer on a listing in February and I personally called every agent who had booked a viewing. That was after I emailed them all, and had my brokerage page them.
But many agents don’t do this, because they just don’t care.
Now? In a pandemic?
Oh, wow. It’s a lot worse.
If an agent listed a property with an “offer date,” and somehow got a bully offer (I’m referencing those four I noted above), they’re not proceeding by the rules.
Maybe that agent is saying, “Screw it, we’re in chaos!” and thinks the rules don’t apply.
Whatever the reason, no buyer out there should expect to be kept informed right now. It’s the Wild West.
–
2) Holdbacks Are Longer
A lot of those listings I noted above, with offer dates, were holding back offers for 10-14 days.
In a typical market, the holdback period is 6-8 days, if you know what you’re doing.
Many of those 76 listings had offer dates that were more than two weeks after the listing date.
I can’t say whether that’s strategy or cluelessness.
Perhaps the agent figures that the “strategy” is to hold-back, and expect a bully offer. So they longer the holdback, the more opportunity for a bully.
Or perhaps the agent just has no idea what he or she is doing. So this is just more of what we’ve grown accustomed to in the past.
Bottom line: I expect to see very few properties listed with holdbacks from now on.
–
Just going through all of Tuesday’s listings – past 11pm on Tuesday night, so this should be the full picture of the day’s listings.
How about those holdbacks?
31 new listings
3 listings with an “offer night.”
I’d say that agents and sellers have adapted, wouldn’t you?
Last, but not least, recall that I presented an infographic last week on how the number of showings and number of offers have changed, both week-over-week, and month-over-month, during the COVID-19 era of real estate.
Courtesy of our friends at BrokerBay, here’s another look, only thins one is using up-to-date stats (as of March 30th) and comparing back to February.
The decline in both showings and offers is exactly what I would expect…
Postscript:
I’m going to do another video on Monday, answering your questions.
Please feel free to post questions in the thread below!
Mike
at 9:52 am
What are the three condos that have offer dates? Anything special about them?
Chris
at 1:29 pm
“Thousands of Canadians can’t pay their rent today
A new survey from the Canadian Federation of Independent Business says 23 per cent of the more than 9,000 respondents can’t pay their rent or mortgage today. Eighty-six per cent say governments should help small businesses cover these costs. Two-thirds say provincial governments should do more to prevent eviction. Less than one-third say their landlords are being “reasonable.” The feds have opened up billions in cheap credit for businesses, but most CFIB members say they can’t afford to take on more debt.
A grassroots coalition of more than 20,000 small businesses—formed just over the past two weeks—also published a survey that 38 per cent of the coalition couldn’t afford rent in April, and a staggering 70 per cent would default in May.”
https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/thousands-of-canadians-cant-pay-their-rent-today
Chris
at 2:10 pm
In related news:
“Commercial property landlords are balking at requests for rent relief from big companies, saying they need to focus on helping vulnerable smaller tenants such as independent restaurants, clothing stores and barbershops that may not survive the huge losses from the coronavirus pandemic.
With non-essential retail outlets shut down across the country, and small businesses of all kinds seeing revenue vanish, many are saying they will simply not pay rent on April 1, and are asking for more prolonged waivers or deferrals.
The trouble for many commercial property owners is that several big companies are also asking for breaks, including Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd. and A&W Canada. Two sources told The Globe and Mail that Canadian Tire has asked for a six-month abatement on rent and operating costs starting May 1 for its non-Canadian Tire brands, which include the sports retailer Sport Chek and the clothing chain Mark’s.”
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-commercial-property-landlords-push-back-against-rent-relief-requests/
Bal
at 2:14 pm
Quick question……if the tenant is unable to pay…dont they have to consult with the landlord….or just simply they can skip the payment
Chris
at 2:18 pm
There aren’t really any set laws on the matter, but tenants should try to open a dialogue with their landlord and see if they can come to some agreement on a rent reduction or deferral. Simply skipping the payment, with no warning given, isn’t likely to be well received by most landlords.
Bal
at 4:19 pm
Thank you!
David Fleming
at 1:39 pm
As noted above, I’m going to do another Question & Answer video on Monday.
Please feel free to ask questions in this thread, and I’ll add them to the queue!
Appraiser
at 6:27 pm
Hi David, Curious to know what you are hearing and seeing from your investor clients and others regarding the keep your rent saga. Have any of your clients, colleagues or contacts been affected by non-payment of rent this month? Thanks.
Jimbo
at 6:36 pm
Appraiser, have you been affected at all?
Appraiser
at 7:31 pm
Hey Jimbo, Thankfully no I have not been affected. As luck would have it, all of my tenants are even older than me and are on pension. Not by design but rather as a matter of happenstance.
As a relatively small-time landlord, I highly recommend screening and vetting your tenants thoroughly – as I believe David has alluded to on more than one occasion.
Jimbo
at 9:29 pm
Good to hear. Hopefully the majority of the RentStrike troublemakers are in larger purpose built renal buildings and not in the condos people are renting.
condodweller
at 11:50 pm
What I find a bit strange is how quickly people run into rent trouble. I mean the lock down happened on March 17 and given that paychecks are usually a week behind most people should have received full paychecks (or close to it anyway) even if they were laid off immediately. You would think that paying rent this month wouldn’t really be an issue for most.
This whole do not pay rent this month campaign doesn’t pass the smell test with me. I guess preserving cash for food etc. is what driving it. But even then, with EI plus all the emergency funding from the government kicking in I’m sure landlords would be willing to wait until the payments come in and defer the rent.
Condo Seeker
at 10:18 pm
Hi David,
I know this isn’t on theme, but I’m curious which condo buildings you would classify as “luxury” beyond some of the well-known hotel residences. Nowadays, it feels like every condo is marketed as such. Are there buildings that you would say offer a higher-end experience in terms of amenities, larger suites throughout, etc?
Thanks!
Libertarian
at 12:19 pm
Any inclination on your part to do similar analysis of houses? Either east or west end. I don’t remember off the top of my head what the codes are for each neighbourhood.
It’d be interesting to see which houses sold right away versus those that didn’t and still may not have.
Gregory
at 6:35 pm
Can you comment on “the flood” of AirBnB properties coming to market – either via sale or long-term rentals.
Thanks.
Jeff
at 7:11 pm
The Ford government just halted all construction, including condominiums. How is this going to affect the market in the short, medium, and long term?
Thanks!
Appraiser
at 2:41 pm
GTA Sales update for March 31, 2020 thus far:
Freehold = 68 sales. 41% sold above asking.
Condos = 35 sales. 66% sold above asking.
Chris
at 3:01 pm
Reminder: TRREB reported 7,187 sales in March 2019, which is a daily average of 232.
March 31, 2020 saw 103 total sales, which is 56% less than the 2019 daily average.
Appraiser
at 4:01 pm
Update: Sales are now up to 133 and climbing (slowly).
Prices are ahead by +!5% year over year for the month and 9% for last 2 weeks.
Not bad for a pandemic.
Chris
at 4:09 pm
Ah so sales only down 43%. Is that good news in your books?
Price has already been discussed multiple times by Pasalis, Ingram, etc. Coles notes: will take more than 14 days to see full impact of huge unemployment spike, drop in AirBnB listings, rent withheld, economic recession, etc.
But you knew that, appraiser. Hopefully.
Derek
at 4:11 pm
Is this counter to our LG and Scott Ingram’s thoughts that the sales mix would dictate the average price for a while? Or too soon…….
Appraiser
at 4:28 pm
@ Derek: Sales mix has always been a factor with respect to skewing average price, one way or the other.
Scott Ingrams latest weekly data indicates 67% of freeholds selling for over asking and 51% of condos. Since freeholds tend to sell for more than condos, the average is probably skewed upward at this time..
Thus the advent of and the need for the HPI.
Sirgruper
at 12:14 am
Sorry but it’s getting ugly out there real estate wise. Today alone I saw a condo buyer that could pay cash walk away during the 10 day review due to the economic climate, an anticipatory breach on a higher end condo with a 6% deposit unless there is a 15% price reduction and a development property suddenly on life support as the financing disappeared. I wish it wasn’t happening but you are about to see the weak hands folding and the strong hands waiting for super deals. Prices have to be negatively impacted. Non-residential will be even worse.
Appraiser
at 11:16 am
Anecdata.
Pragma
at 11:13 am
I’ve seen 4 houses in my neighborhood over the last 2 weeks that were sold conditionally but fell through. The previous 6 months I think I saw 4 in total. This is not anecdata. This is reality which might not agree with Appraisers reality
Bal
at 5:30 pm
The month of April will provide us with the true picture…..i think sales cool down 3rd week of March…
Natrx
at 1:14 am
There was a big big drop off in the last week of March. We’re going to see stats change on a weekly basis probably for all of April, as the reality of the severity and length of this downturn is apparent.
Appraiser
at 4:11 pm
Stock Market Update:
The S&P 500 plunged 4.7%, the Dow Jones industrials dived 4.5% and the Nasdaq sank 4.7% in Wednesday’s trading. Small caps tracked by the Russell 2000 sold off 6.9%.
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-plunges-stocks-routed-trump-coronavirus-outlook/
Verbal Kint
at 6:38 pm
S&P TSX only down 3.8%, -22.8% year to date.
S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index down 5.9% on the day, -28.3% year to date.
Probably more appropriate on a Canadian real estate blog, but I guess it isn’t the story you wanted to sell.
Appraiser
at 7:35 pm
Sorry, should have included the Canadian indexes as well. You got me.
Having said that, all of the indexes mentioned are solidly in bear territory. Not sure it changes the narrative all that much.
Natrx
at 1:16 am
What story is this?
J G
at 8:54 pm
Where was the stock market update when Dow surged 4000 points in 3 days last week?
Anyways, all this back and forth are pointless. The question is, did you buy FAANG stocks or ETFs at 2017 prices when you had the chance?
Bal
at 7:38 am
J G….I started investing in stocks recently ….but I think I am becoming addicted….lollol….whenever I see stocks are down..i invest more money…lol…my husband is telling me not too as he thinks stock market is just like gambling….lol..
Appraiser
at 11:13 am
Dead cat bounce.
Bal
at 2:14 pm
Dead cat bounce….what does that mean the stock market will go down….well if the stock market will go down that means it is going to drag house market as well
Chris
at 2:48 pm
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deadcatbounce.asp
Chris
at 4:19 pm
“ ‘Dark days ahead’: Ontario premier warns little separates province from devastation in Italy and Spain
The government has based its recent self-distancing advice to Ontarians on provincial modelling, which has projected a “critical” situation over the next few weeks, with larger waves of patients ending up in hospitals and intensive care.“
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/mobile/dark-days-ahead-ontario-premier-warns-little-separates-province-from-devastation-in-italy-and-spain-1.4877206
Doug Ford is over-sensationalizing this virus! Right, appraiser?
Geoff
at 7:11 pm
Any time I hear devil’s advocate I think of this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74oGgFTgpI4
Appraiser
at 7:58 pm
Good one.
These dark times put me in mind of another of Homer’s classics:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUVwR0rw5fk
Chris
at 11:13 pm
“More brutal leading indicators: Canada auto sales down 48% y/y in March, desrosiers says. #cdnecon”
– Erik Hertzberg, BNN Bloomberg Journalist
https://twitter.com/ErikHertzberg/status/1245472270379814912
Natrx
at 1:32 am
Alot of people in the industry are going to be shock denial over the coming weeks is my view. Money from China or foreign investments? Forget it. They’re down huge too in their home market (i.e. their own property, investments, can’t transact properly). People in many prospering 3rd world countries are starving. They need money sent from relatives here to just buy rice.
Then Bank of Mom and Dad are looking a lot poorer suddenly with their own house value less certain and down huge in any investments they might have.
Than you have tons of Airbnb, less people moving into the city lowering rent values. Units going down to $1700/month or even lower now when it easily went for $2200/month just before.
Alot of jobs in the local tech sector, marketing agencies, etc. will see huge declines in jobs, further lowering rent levels. Many restaurant workers who relied and paid their rent in huge tips are completely out in the cold. They wouldn’t even be able to pay another month of rent and their living expenses (basically, me thinks they’ll be moving on back home en masse).
These things will just have a domino and toppling effect. Basically, I can’t fathom the condo market holding for even 2-3 months before we start seeing a noticeable trend.
And from a corporate point of view, if your job bonus or security relied on top line growth, I think that will immediately also impact SFHs in precious Leslieville type areas. This includes banking/finance, lawyers (yes, billable hours), soon to be Big-4 consultants/outsourcing gigs.
There’s going to be at least another 3 months of ‘lockdown’ and even after, it will be a very limited coming back out, with potential ‘re-lockdowns’ ready to go at a moment’s notice. Than, fall is expected to have a 2nd pandemic wave.
This whole time, essentially it’ll be the same. No visitors from, bar/restaurant scene almost permanently wiped out. All these major events cancelled too, that normally would have been a boon for airbnbs, restaurants, taxis, ubers, etc.
Alot of start-ups pretty much relied on outside capital injections from Private Equity/Venture capital. That’s also going to go by the wayside as this drags on. I have a feeling it’s going to be very very painful in the industry, especially if you bought at recent high prices.
Bal
at 7:35 am
Good Morning…….Thank you for the reality check but somehow we need to stay positive. ……but there is also a possibility that this downturn might be short-lived and we see everything getting back to normal quickly…..anything is possible….stay positive…stay safe…stay healthy……
Chris
at 9:38 am
Bal, it’s looking less and less likely that this is a short-lived downturn.
“‘Best case scenario’: COVID-19 measures expected to last until July, government document says
Government officials have been hinting that distancing measures would be recommended – or enforced – for more than just the next few weeks
Canadians are far from done with dealing with COVID-19, as measures to fight the spread of the virus are expected to continue until at least July, according to a government document obtained by the National Post.
“Current GoC [Government Operations Centre] modelling suggests as a best case scenario that current measures continue until at least July.”
Another seldom-reported clue that the drastic measures put in place to fight the global pandemic will last until the summer is the fact that the Canadian border will remain closed to non-American foreigners until at least June 30.”
https://nationalpost.com/news/best-case-scenario-covid-19-measures-expected-to-last-until-july-government-document-says
Natrx
at 2:08 pm
The Banks were more optimistic today, but alot of it is predicated on the US and their recovery efforts. There’s somehow this 85% recovery expected in the latter half, with a year from now, as if this never happened.
But Fauci says although better prepared, there will be a 2nd pandemic wave in the Fall for the US, which would also mean Canada isn’t immune to it. So it’s hard to see how it’s supposed to be business as usual in a year with this virus still constantly out there. And I’ve noticed, many executives and Sr. Management, which are often older, are notably worried aboutthis virus. You won’t see them rushing back to the forefront any time soon with bold business visions.
Chris
at 9:45 am
Agreed on pretty well all counts, with the exception of the second wave of Covid-19 come Fall. While that’s certainly possible, I don’t know if we’re in a position to say it is expected at this point.
But foreign buyers are likely non-existent now – they can’t even come to the country anymore.
Bank of Mom and Dad are probably worrying more about their own retirement plans right now, as opposed to helping junior get on the property ladder.
AirBnB are desperately lobbying the Canadian government to bail out hosts, while putting on a PR show to make it look like they’re helping out while really providing very little.
PwC and KMPG are laying off large numbers of staff across Canadian offices. Seems likely others will follow.
And as evidenced in my response to Bal, this seems likely to be the case for awhile yet, at least as far as our government is concerned. Spring market is not happening this year. Summer market could be off the table too.
Natrx
at 2:13 pm
Yes, I heard from my wife just now, KPMG are laying off alot in Australia, while partners here were asked to take 100K pay cuts.
Regarding the 2nd wave, although way better equipped:
Asked whether the country (US) would likely face another outbreak in the fall, Dr Fauci said: “In fact, I would anticipate that that would actually happen because of the degree of transmissibility.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-fall-outbreak-anthony-fauci-trump-covid-19-peak-us-a9438311.html
He’s pretty respected and a straight shooter, non-sensationalist, and independent. As long as a self-induced coma is around, it’s going to be difficult to spring back into action.
Chris
at 2:48 pm
Interesting, thanks for sharing that link. I think Dr. Fauci is a good source of expert information, so definitely place weight on his opinion. Just seems most experts right now aren’t even sure how Covid-19 will go, so likely hard to predict for now. A fall resurgence will also first require us to get the initial outbreaks under control!
Chris
at 9:34 am
“U.S. Jobless Claims Totaled 10 Million Over the Last Two Weeks
The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits surged for a second week and reached about 10 million over the last two weeks, highlighting the devastating economic impact of the coronavirus as shutdowns widened across the country.
A record 6.65 million people filed jobless claims in the week ended March 28, according to Labor Department figures released Thursday, as many stores and restaurants were forced to close across the nation to mitigate the outbreak. The prior week’s level was also revised up slightly to 3.31 million.
“I never thought I’d see such a print in my lifetime as economist,” said Thomas Costerg at Pictet Wealth Management, who had the highest forecast in the Bloomberg survey, at 6.5 million. Claims are likely to stay elevated as more states announce stay-at-home orders, and it would be “not unthinkable” to see a 20% unemployment rate, more than double the high that followed the last recession, he said.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-02/u-s-jobless-claims-doubled-to-record-6-65-million-last-week
Chris
at 11:29 am
“Airbnb asks government to bail out hosts in Canada”
The response?
“No.” – Adam Vaughn MP
https://twitter.com/toadamvaughan/status/1245679276449562631?s=21
So, they’re down to near-zero bookings, a nothingburger of support from AirBnB, and a hard no to the request of assistance from government. Looks like AirBnB hosts are pretty well on their own for this one!
condodweller
at 3:38 pm
No surprise there. If AirBnB owners are forced to sell or rent long term, that aligns well with the government’s intention of making homes and rentals more affordable.
I feel bad for these people but I agree with the government’s goal of keeping people safe/healthy and making sure they can eat during this crisis.
Chris
at 3:49 pm
It also seems like it would be political suicide to bail out AirBnB hosts. The general public does not appear to have very much sympathy for their plight.
Appraiser
at 11:50 am
Latest MLS real-time sales update for April 1, 2020.
Freehold – 56 sales. 40% sold above asking.
Condos – 22 sales. 64% sold above asking.
Highest sale price – 78 Glengowan Rd. (Lawrence Park) sold for $3,195,000.
Chris
at 12:05 pm
TRREB reported a total of 9,042 sales for April 2019, which equates to a daily average of 301.
April 1, 2020 had a total of 78 sales. This is a decline of 74% from the April 2019 daily average.
Chris
at 3:46 pm
“What happens if you didn’t pay rent on April 1?
“What happens to the tenant if they don’t pay the rent? At the moment, nothing,” said Harry Fine, a paralegal and former adjudicator with the Landlord and Tenant Board (LTB).
For the time being, evictions have been halted in Ontario, as the Landlord and Tenant Board has suspended all hearings. When it resumes operations, tenants could risk eviction if they have still not paid rent.
However, the wait for a hearing could take many months, experts predict, saying the backlog that already existed before the tribunal’s suspension is bound to get much worse.
“I can see that if a landlord files even today, that it would be 10 months before they get a hearing with the LTB,” said Fine. “If tenants want to take advantage of the system, and do so, they can get a lot of free rent.””
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/what-happens-if-you-didn-t-pay-rent-on-april-1-1.4878279
Kendra
at 4:29 pm
Every day and night i think of him and always wish he would come back to me, I was really upset and i needed help, so i searched for help online and I came across a website that suggested that Robinson buckler can help get ex back fast. So, I felt I should give him a try. I contacted him and he told me what to do and i did it then he did a (Love spell) for me. 72 hours later, my husband really called me and told me that he miss me and the kids so much, he came back after 2 days {{robinsonbucler@gmail. com}}????????????………………………………..,,,
Derek
at 9:41 pm
And I will never leave you again! ????
Jimbo
at 5:58 pm
COVID vaccine working in mice.
https://www.meadvilletribune.com/coronavirus/university-of-pittsburgh-reports-successful-covid-19-vaccine-trial/article_d9120359-38f2-589e-b474-1bfec61682a9.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=user-share
Chris
at 6:12 pm
Good news! Hopefully they can proceed as quickly as possible and successfully through the remaining tests required to get this vaccine to production.
Appraiser
at 6:02 pm
Latest MLS real-time sales update for April 1, 2020.
Freehold – 80 sales. 43% sold above asking.
Condos – 32 sales. 63% sold above asking.
Chris
at 6:09 pm
That’s a 63% decline from the April 2019 average daily sales volume.
Are listings down 63% too? Curious how you never include those figures!
Bal
at 6:19 pm
from where Appraiser is pulling this sold data…..what I see either listing are getting suspended or sitting in the market…. I might be looking in the wrong areas…My areas of interest is Oakville ( Trafalgar / Dundas) or Financial drive Brampton…I hardly find anything selling in those areas and these are damn hot areas.
Chris
at 6:28 pm
It’s far less than scientific, but you can look for yourself on Bungol at sales in the past day/seven days, compared to new listings in the past day/seven days.
From this cursory assessment, listings seem to be outpacing sales by a fair margin.
But we’ll get more robust data on Monday when John Pasalis publishes his weekly update.
Bal
at 6:29 pm
Chris – Thanks for sending dead cat bounce stock article…I will need to behave going forward as I don’t want to lose my hard earned money…but I am mostly investing in the bank stocks or Enbridge…I think these are good for long term.
Chris
at 6:34 pm
No problem, Bal. Nobody can see the future. You can only definitively call a dead cat bounce with the benefit of hindsight.
Appraiser
at 8:19 pm
Brian Persaud at Re/Max Realtron is also keeping daily track of sales: conditional plus firm transactions.
“April 1st
2020: 126 condos + 261 free hold (387 total) listings were sold conditional or went firm.”
https://twitter.com/BrianPersaud?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Chris
at 8:32 pm
So according to Scott Ingram and John Pasalis, two widely respected and credible sources, sales volumes are down >35%.
According to some Re/Max agent named Brian, who nobody has ever heard of, they’re up 29%.
Sounds totally legit!
Crofty
at 8:57 pm
What do you mean no one’s heard of Brian? I’ve heard of him….now.
Chris
at 9:25 pm
Oh! That Brian! Of course!
Chris
at 8:35 pm
Or is there any indication as to what the sold conditional + firm numbers were from last year? That’s the more interesting comparison, as opposed to just shouting numbers.
Pragma
at 11:33 am
“Unlike 2008, the Canadian consumer does not have the capacity to get us through this recession” – TD. From permabull bank analysts! What does that mean for mortgage debt? We already lead the world in consumer debt, are we going to go even further in the lead for another 10 years. And how come no country stays at the top of that list for an extended period of time. We have surpassed levels seen in the US in 2008. We are overdue for a deleveraging even. The virus was just a trigger and hastened the inevitable.