Perhaps this should be called “prediction,” as in singular, since I really only have one prediction: the fall market will be busy!

It remains to be seen whether prices will continue to rise or finally stagnate, but whatever happens, it’s going to be a furious three months!

I woke up on Monday morning and there was a distinct “feeling” in the air.

Well, that physical feeling was probably rain, since it was spitting like it had been all weekend, but the intangible feeling in the air was the unmistakable sense that Fall is just around the corner.

The calendar tells us that Fall doesn’t arrive until September 21st, but for all intents and purposes, it comes the day after Labour Day.

It was 8-degrees in cottage country this morning, and it only warmed up to about 18 by the time I got back to Toronto.  I think it’s fair to say that despite what the calendar says, summer is officially over.

During the month of August, I likely said the phrase “Labour Day” to my clients about one hundred times.

Whether my clients were buyers or sellers, I told them that “Labour Day” was the only date we need concern ourselves with; an unofficial goal, if you will.

The real estate market slows to a crawl in the latter half of August, and while there may be a couple of deals kicking around for buyers, there really isn’t much sense in being an aggresive, active participant in the market.

I told my buyers that there would be far more inventory and thus many more options once September rolls around.

And I told my sellers that there isn’t much sense listing a property for sale when the buyers aren’t out in full force!

Labour Day is like the set of starting blocks on a 100-metre track – the very same ones that Usain Bolt jumped out of early last week to get disqualified from the World Championships.

A few shrewd sellers tried to get out of the starting blocks early this Fall.

One seller in my building listed his condo last week, before Labour Day and during the last days of August, with “Offer Night” to follow this coming Friday.

A seller of a beautiful Roncesvalles home listed his property last week as well, and he’s reviewing offers on Tuesday – the very first day “back!”

While both these sellers tried to buck the trend, do something different, and come out ahead of the game, I think the risk/reward equation leaves little to gain.  From what I hear, the city of Toronto was desolate this past weekend as residents were out of town trying to soak in the final days of summer.  I applaud these sellers for trying something unique, but I’m not sure I would advise my clients to follow suit.

I have about 5-6 sellers ready to go this September, all of whom contacted me in July & August.  Depending on their circumstances and the timing of their sales, it seemed to reason that waiting until after Labour Day made the most sense.

I could make a dozen predictions about the Fall market, but I’d rather make one solid prediction that I’m positive will hold true: the Fall market is going to be exceptionally busy!

Last September saw 6,310 properties sold in Toronto; a significant drop-off from the 8,196 properties that sold in September of 2009, but more in line with the 6,424 properties that sold in September of 2008.

I’m predicting that this September, we will see close to 8,000 properties sold in Toronto.

This past summer was very slow, and I feel as if more and more buyers are deciding to wait until they absolutely know they’ll have a bevy of options to choose from in September.  I always tell my buyers that there is a chance, however small, that they find that one hidden gem in August, but for the most part I think buyers kick tires in August in order to be completely prepared for Fall.

As for the downtown core, I think this is going to be the industry leader this Fall.

When the market is at its busiest, we routinely see 500+ condos sell each month in C01/C08.  There were 637 sales in June of 2011, 531 in May, 486 in April, and 586 in March.

But September has always lagged behind a little bit – 385 in 2010, 455 in 2009, and 310 in 2008.

I’m predicting that we see 500 condos sold this September as buyers bolt out of the starting blocks, having grown tired of waiting in July & August.

Interest rates are still ridiculously low, and the proverbial “now is a great time to buy” sales pitch is somewhat hard to combat.

At 3.49% for a five-year, fixed-rate mortgage, money is cheaper than it’s ever been.

CMHC has tightened rules on lending to push a small percentage of buyers out of the market (arguably those who had no purpose buying in the first place), but anybody who can afford and qualify for a mortgage should have a grin from ear-to-ear at the thought of rates as low as 3.29% for a CMHC insured quick-close mortgage.

There are still people out there that continue to predict a market crash, but those people have been around since far before I ever got into the business.  I work in today’s market; not tomorrow’s and not yesterday’s.

Yes – eventually the market will correct, but ‘when’ is a question nobody can answer with any shred of accuracy, so I’m not about to throw my hat into the ring.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market appreciate modestly this Fall, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see prices level out.

No matter what happens with prices, however, I do stand by my prediction about volume and I’m adamant that this Fall will be ridiculously busy.

If you ever listen to Psychic Nikki on 102.1 The Edge’s morning show, you know how silly most “predictions” are.  That’s clearly for entertainment purposes only, and while some of her predictions do come true (or close to true, which she takes credit for), I think it’s really just something to talk about for the sake of doing so.

I may be wrong too, but based on the slow summer and the amount of buyers and sellers in my own stable that are ready to jump, I think we’re going to see very high volume in September and it’ll carry through to October and November.

The Fall market usually levels out by the end of November (more so with houses than condos), but as long as the weather Gods don’t punish us with brutal cold and plentiful snowfalls in December, I think the market will remain strong right up until mid-December when it’s quite normal for things to die off.

As for a prediction of hope, well, I think that with the recent press about glass panels falling from Lanterra Development’s projects, Concord Adex being sued by residents of original CityPlace towers whose balconies are unfit for use, and Rosario Marchese trying to reform the Condo Act, perhaps it’s time that things will change in the pre-construction industry.

I’ve long been a critic of the way developers do business in the Toronto condo market, and I’ve long been calling for change in the form of tougher regulations (or perhaps some regulations??) and more accountability.  I’ve always said that it would take politicians, media members, or both to get things changed, and it looks like we’re on the right track.

I hope everybody had a great long weekend, and although the weather is a bit colder and summer is over, we have plenty to look forward to in the fall!  Kids are back to school and out of our hair, NFL football starts on Thursday, and who isn’t looking forward to raking piles and piles of leaves? 🙂