Pricing Strategies Are Changing!

Market Statistics | May 27, 2020


Put on your thinking caps, will you?

Let’s say that, for whatever reason, you will be a seller in the month of June.

Your target list date is Tuesday, June 2nd.

You own a 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom condo in the Entertainment District that is worth somewhere around $600,000.  The last sale for your model was back in February.  It was four floors higher, but your condo is nicer, you think.  That property was listed at $549,900 and sold for $612,500.

How are you going to price your condo for sale?

Let’s say I give you three options:

1) List at $499,900 with a holdback on offers until Monday, June 8th.
2) List at $599,900 with a 24-hour irrevocable on all offers, no exceptions.
3) List at $614,900 with offers any time.

Does anybody want to help me here?

There’s more to this blog, I assure you.  And the readers will comment on a litany of topics today as they always do.  But for now, can ya’ll put this to a vote in the comments section below?  I’d really, really like to know where your heads are at.

Let me look at the three scenarios and provide pros and cons.

Scenario #1: List at $499,900 with a holdback on offers until Monday, June 8th.

Pro: You have under-priced substantially and should get a ton of interest.

Pro: You have opened the door to a pre-emptive or “bully” offer.

Pro: You can always re-list at a higher price later if this strategy blows up in your face.

Con: Showings are down substantially from February and March, so you won’t get the same level of interest.

Con: We’re in a pandemic.  Period.

 

Scenario #2: List at $599,900 with a 24-hour irrevocable on all offers, no exceptions.

Pro: You are essentially priced at fair market value, considering the latest comparable sale.

Pro: With the 24-hour holdback, you will be able to see if you get any further interest, after an offer comes in.

Con: You haven’t priced the property to get more interest than it’s worth.

 

Scenario #3: List at $614,900 with offers any time.

Pro: Anybody who comes to see the property is likely in tune with market value, as opposed to the buyers who might see the property if it were listed at $499,900, who have a $499,900 budget.

Pro: You have wiggle room on the price, and can allow a built-in negotiating cushion for any buyer who doesn’t want to pay sticker price, ie. you hand them a “win.”

Con: You limit your upside.

Con: Fewer showings

 

I could make an argument in favour of any of these strategies, and in the end, my opinion would change depending on what day it is.

Before I had the idea for this blog post, last Friday, I’ve had been completely in favour of option #3 or maybe a hybrid between #2 and #3, which is to say that if I can accurately convey to the seller that they should not expect to get February’s price, then they should consider the “offers any time” strategy.

By Tuesday afternoon, however, I started to waver on this.

So many condos that came out on Monday and Tuesday had “holdbacks” on offers, or at least it felt that way.

Maybe I was only looking at the lower-end condos, or maybe since I was really only looking at the listings that piqued my interest, ie. the good ones, I was just looking at listings that had holdbacks!

So I sat down to look at the data and try to understand where pricing and strategy has gone in the downtown condo market.

If we took all of the condo listings in C01 and C08, starting last Monday (albeit a holiday) and running through Tuesday (I’m typing this at 11:30pm when all the day’s listings are accounted for), how would the data look?

Specifically, we’re looking for three different strategies:

1) A specific offer night.
2) Offers any time with 24 hours.
3) Offers any time.

Now to be fair, #2 could be strategic in nature, as I wrote in my blog last week.  The listing agent could be pricing attractively without an “offer date,” and expecting multiple offers in the first 24 hours.  Or, he or she could just be dealing with an out-of-town seller, thus they need the 24 hours.  Either way, we’ve included this as a category.

Here’s how the data breaks down:

 

 

As you can see, out of 266 listings, a mere 44 are holding back offers.

That’s only 17%.

Doesn’t that seem low to you?

Wasn’t there seemingly a time when every condo listing had an “offer night?”

Consider that 12% of the listings are using the “24 hour irrevocable” strategy, and while I did see one power of sale in here which tells me it’s not a “strategy” per se, but rather it’s done out of necessity, I did see a lot of under-priced listings that are using this strategically.  Some of them sold over asking too, so the strategy worked.

As for the tested and true “offers any time” without restriction, a whopping 71% of these listings fit the bill.

But what if we adjusted for price?

Surely the $3,495,000 penthouses can’t be expected to “price low and hold back offers,” can they?

So let’s look at the segment of the market which has always been the hottest: sub-$700,000.

We’ll re-run the same chart, and it shows the following:

 

 

This time around 34 listings out of 134 are holding back offers, or 25%.

That’s higher than the 17% that the overall market shows, although to be fair, the overall market does include these listings here:

 

 

Ah, right!  Perhaps I could have started with this, but I did want to paint the overall picture first.

Now we can compare the percentage of condos with “offer nights” as follows:

Under $700,000: 25%
Over $700,000: 8%

As for listings with “offers any time” and zero restrictions, it shows as follows:

Under $700,000: 57%
Over $700,000: 86%

So let’s start from the beginning, shall we?

Let’s say that you’re putting your home up for sale on Tuesday, June 2nd, only this time, you own a 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom semi-detached house in Bloor West Village, or The Junction, Or Danforth Village, or Upper Beaches.

Let’s say that your house is “worth” somewhere around $1,200,000.

1) List at $999,000 with a holdback on offers until Monday, June 8th.
2) List at $1,149,000 with a 24-hour irrevocable on all offers, no exceptions.
3) List at $1,229,000 with offers any time.

Humour me, and provide your answers below, would you?

Having seen the statistics above for how downtown condominiums are being listed, how do you think the data would look if we re-ran the same charts, but this time for, say, freehold listings in E01, E02, E03?

Would you expect to see more holdbacks on offers, or less?

What percentages would you have in mind?

A mere XX% of all downtown condo listings had “offer dates,” and under $700,000, still only XX% used that strategy.

For freehold houses, are you thinking higher or lower?

Take a moment and make your mental guess before I show you the following…

 

 

Wow, what a difference!

A whopping 60% of listings have an “offer night,” and further 19% have the “24-hour irrevocable” strategy which I think is far more likely to be a strategy, as opposed to a seller really being in Thailand without access to email, than it would be with downtown condos.

Only 21% of these listings have “offers any time” with zero restrictions.

Once again, let’s finesse the data a little and take a look at those listings below $1,000,000, which is the hot-spot in the market, especially for first-time buyers:

 

 

Oh, okay.  This tells quite a story about where the entry-level freehold market is!

It’s a similar pattern to what we saw with condos, except these percentages are way, way higher.

Nevertheless, it’s interesting to see 81% of listings with “offer nights,” and a mere 10% with “offers any time.”  To be honest, I’m surprised to see any listings with “offers any time” in this price point, but there’s always that one dilapidated house listed at fiar market value, or that re-list, perhaps.

Last, but not least, let me filter out the properties listed over $1,000,000 so we can compare appropriately:

 

 

This is precisely what I expected.

The percentage of “offer nights” for the listings in each of these two categories is as follows:

Under $1,000,000: 81%
Over $1,000,000:  49%

I think back to the dregs of early-April when some of the TRB readers were commenting about how if prices drop to, A, B, or C levels, all of which were utterly ridiculous, they would consider getting into the market.

I understand that we are not out of the pandemic, and that a second wave could come, or a recession could hit in 6-12 months, or the United States could face a civil war when Joe Biden wins the Presidency in November, Donald Trump refuses to leave the White House, and a hoard of redneck militia surrounds the White House while the Metro Police, State Police, ATF, and FBI are given different orders by different government officials.   Wouldn’t that be something…

But looking at how properties are being listed, and more specifically (topic for another day?) how they’re selling, I think it’s fair to say, er, conclude, that the Toronto real estate market is functioning as a seller’s market right now for freehold properties, and maybe, just maybe, a balanced market (seller-leaning) for condos.

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69 Comments

  1. Ed

    at 7:44 am

    Without looking at your analysis I would go option 1. $499,000 with holdback.

  2. Ed

    at 7:52 am

    For the house sale my answer would be dependent on the condition of the house. Whether it was done to the nines or whether it needed work.

  3. Kyle

    at 8:33 am

    Obviously the last sale is relevant, but so too is the current competition. If it is a balanced market for condos and the majority of condos are taking offers anytime, holding back seems a risky strategy, when there isn’t scarcity. Unless there something unique or rare about your particular unit, a Buyer will not feel as motivated to lock up your property if there are lots of other condos available at any time.

    I would go with Option 2 for the Condo, Option 1 for the house.

  4. Appraiser

    at 10:43 am

    Under-list and hold back offers on the semi-detached.

    List at market with offers anytime with the condo.

    Those waiting around for a 2017 price drop to repeat itself, will do so in vain, I’m afraid.

    The big difference this time around in contrast to 2017, is the lack of panic selling and the resultant dearth of inventory. Demand continues to overwhelm supply at present.

  5. condodweller

    at 11:40 am

    I think it is a very fluid situation right now and it would be a mistake to follow the trend. While these stats are a good way to look at what has happened up to now I would only use it as a gauge and come up with a new strategy going forward. It’s almost like chaos theory. I would use a gut feel based on a host of variables to determine the best strategy for each listing.

    Regarding the comment on civil war being more likely than a price drop clearly shows your position on the issue which is fair enough. I have learned over the years never to underestimate demand in TO. Even if an event would seem to have a negative effect on prices i.e. 2017 and now, it is very difficult to gauge the magnitude and whether it is big enough to cause an actual decline in price or a simple slow down the upward trend.

    This is why in March I commented that I was actually more interested in what/when the low will point will be.

    Another issue to consider is that it is all good that we are playing this guessing game with nothing to lose. If we actually had a decision to make with a few hundred thousand $$ at stake, some of our position might change as well.

    1. J G

      at 12:07 pm

      Good points Condodweller, lately I find David’s position very bullish, almost like Appraiser. I don’t understand how it can be a sellers market in 416 condo right now, some buildings have 30+ units for sale. Add in the deteriorating fundamental of increased WFH.

      Ok, we will see 6-12 months from now.

      I know coworkers who bought in the spring of 2017 on the advice of their realtors. It is their primary residence so they will say ” it doesn’t matter 20 years from now”. Well I’m pretty sure they would loved to have bought in 2018/2019 instead, extra 100-200k for their TSFA/RSP.

      1. Appraiser

        at 12:25 pm

        Same old bear mantra. It will all come tumbling down “in 6-12 months”. Yawn.

        As for timing the market – good luck. Your example from 2017 makes that clear.

        Those who buy for shelter (the vast majority) couldn’t care less.

      2. J G

        at 2:20 pm

        Seriously, you don’t care if you bought in spring of 2017 vs 2018/2019?

        That difference of 100-200k is significant for most families. Average household net worth is 1M in GTA, so you think people don’t care if they are losing (or could not have lost) 15% of their net worth? Ridiculous comment.

        1. Kyle

          at 2:43 pm

          This is a great comment…
          …If your name is Captain Hindsight.

          If someone is in the position that they want to buy a home, can comfortably afford that home and plan to stay in it for a while, then they should buy it when they’re ready. Waiting a year or two for a correction that may or may not come, in the hopes that they might be able to buy for 100K – 200K less is just as much a form of speculation as the type of speculation you bears are always railing against. Just in the opposite direction.

          And given that this is what the historic graph of what Toronto Real Estate looks like, your odds of timing that correction and saving that 100K – 200K are far lower than your odds of having to pay significantly more for waiting.

          http://trreb.ca/files/market-stats/market-watch/historic.pdf

        2. J G

          at 3:03 pm

          That’s a fair comment, so people care if you lose 150k. We agree at least on that, because Appraiser basically said people don’t care about losing that amount of money.

          As for hindsight, I think most experienced folks could sense a correction was coming in Spring of 2017. Anyone who’s gone thru a few bubbles.

      3. Clifford

        at 8:40 am

        I’ve seen some properties going well above asking. Examples of properties selling for more now than they did in February. My building has just 3 units for sale. The ones that have a lot of units are investor buildings or newly constructed (just closed) and people are trying to sell them. Happens all the time.

        I won’t disagree that prices are down overall, but not for everything.

  6. Appraiser

    at 12:10 pm

    MLS data May 1- 26. Year over year. A harbinger of month-end stats?

    Freehold sales down 53%. (2,338 v. 4,997 in 2019)

    Sales over $2M down 58%. (96 v. 229 )

    Sales over $4M down 45%. (12 v. 22) {small data set}

    1. Chris

      at 1:15 pm

      Per HouseSigma data on the GTA for May 2020 thus far:

      Sale down 66% from May 2019
      New listings down 62% from May 2019
      Active listings down 41% from May 2019

  7. Frances

    at 12:50 pm

    I’m thinking Option 3 for the Condo, Option 1 for the House (love a good $999,000 house!)

    I don’t understand people who say that they don’t care if the prices drop because they are in their home for the long-haul. Surely everyone likes to feel like they made a solid investment and it would be depressing as hell to know your investment has lost value. Maybe I’m just a glass half-empty type of person!

  8. Chris

    at 1:20 pm

    “Out of all the analysts suggesting CMHC’s more negative outlook of an 18% decline is very unlikely, how many predicted that home prices would fall by more than 18% in most of the 905 regions 3 years ago? Exactly Zero! So take the bulls with a grain of salt too. This of course is not to say that CMHC is correct, but the reality is they have access to more data than almost any other housing analyst so you have to take their negative outlooks seriously – even if we think it’s too bearish.”

    – John Pasalis

    https://twitter.com/JohnPasalis/status/1265641252688736256

  9. Pingback: - PropertyIN.ca News Pricing Strategies Are Changing! | Toronto Realty Blog
  10. Jimbo

    at 1:57 pm

    For the condo I would go for option 2. If I was allowed to alter I would make it 48 hours vice the 24. It would give you an opportunity to shop around to other agents that have customers interested in that segment.

    For the house I would go option 1. If I was allowed to alter I would go with option 2, at the price of option 1 with a 48 hour vice 24.

  11. Appraiser

    at 2:19 pm

    “Rising home sales show Americans are looking past the coronavirus”

    “Americans are behaving very differently than they have in previous recessions — convinced that the coronavirus pandemic will soon pass, many continue to spend money as if nothing has changed.”

    “Sales of newly built homes rose by 1% in April compared with March, dramatically outpacing economists’ expectations for a 22% decline.”

    https://www.axios.com/home-sales-coronavirus-pandemic-7525d658-8523-4981-989a-79a76a60c390.html

    1. Chris

      at 2:39 pm

      Surely this time Kyle will scold you for venturing off of the topic of Toronto real estate! After all, if he takes exception to Canada-wide data, and Vancouver realtor opinions, American market figures must be well offside too. Unless he’s only taking exception to it when done by someone on the more “bearish” end of the spectrum?

      1. Kyle

        at 2:53 pm

        Nope my issue has nothing to do with where one lies on the spectrum. Note i don’t take exception to many of the other bears. Unlike yourself i don’t feel a desperate insecure need to bury every single bears’ post.

        My issue is when one person is so desperate to manufacture support for his dogma, that he spams the board so hard with irrelevant facts and one-sided quotes that it amounts to proliferating misinformation.

        1. Chris

          at 3:03 pm

          Ah, ok, so talking about global pandemics, Canada-wide averages, and Vancouver realtor opinions are not acceptable on the Toronto Realty Blog, in your book. Talking about the Seattle real estate market, Houston’s renewable energy projects, and the America-wide real estate market, however, totally fair game.

          Makes perfect sense.

          Again, rich of you to talk of spamming, when you’ve been the most prolific poster here for five years running. Pot, meet kettle.

          1. Kyle

            at 3:47 pm

            Not sure where yo’re getting this new misinformation that you’re now trying to spread, but I am not the most prolific poster here, not by a long shot.

            My name may be frequently mentioned first in David’s year end thanks, but no where has David ever said that he is listing names in order.

          2. Chris

            at 3:59 pm

            From December 2017:

            “A very special thanks to my most frequent commenters on Toronto Realty Blog: Kyle, Chris, Appraiser, Condodweller, Ralph Cramdown, Libertarian…”

            David can clarify, but I would interpret that as a descending list of the most frequent commenters. If I’m incorrect in that assessment, then my apologies!

            As for one-sided quotes, curious how you don’t harangue appraiser for exactly that as well when he hand picks a quote to support his dogma? Curious how just the other day you scolded J G that this is not the S&P500 blog, yet say nothing when appraiser regularly totes out Dow Jones figures? I wonder why that is?

          3. Kyle

            at 4:23 pm

            I think Appraiser himself will admit, that every now and then he shitposts just to get a rise out of you bears. It’s obvious to everyone but you when he’s f’ing with you. But just as frequently he posts very insightful relevant content that is meant to be useful to the average (i.e. not the hard core) readers.

            You on the other hand are so dogmatic, you will post anything you think supports your argument without the slightest bit of critical thinking, regardless of whether it’s relevant, probable or even true, and in complete disregard of whether you could be misleading the average reader.

            When someone posts a completely valid link to a well written, well-supported article about real estate. If that article is overall bullish, you will literally comb the whole f’ing article to find the tiniest thing that could be unbullish and then you will proceed to bury that comment with that one out of context quote. I’ve seen you do this a dozen times, i’ve never seen Appraiser do that.

            Your type of behaviour isn’t about trying to inform or enlighten people at all it is about obsessively defending your dogma.

          4. Chris

            at 4:43 pm

            So when a “bear” posts quotes/articles/data, it’s dogmatic and misleading. When appraiser does it, it’s obviously just shitposting to mess around and get a rise!

            When appraiser posts about the stock market, it’s all well and good. When J G does, it’s “hey this is the Toronto Realty Blog, not the S&P500 blog!”

            When appraiser posts about the Seattle real estate market, it’s totally relevant to the discussion. When I post about CMHC’s projections it’s “hey, this is the Toronto Realty Blog, not the Canada-wide average blog!”

            The hypocrisy is glaring. Dance around it, launch into some more ad hominems, yell and swear, whatever you like. It’s apparent to all.

          5. Kyle

            at 4:49 pm

            Your whataboutisms don’t make anything i’ve said untrue.

          6. Chris

            at 4:51 pm

            You spouted your opinion for four paragraphs. You’re entitled to it, and so be it. But that doesn’t make it factual, nor does it change your hypocrisy.

  12. Thomas

    at 5:19 pm

    The advice at this stage should be ‘don’t buy or sell unless one really have to’. It is less likely that someone would want to ‘buy a house urgently’. And if somebody really has to sell, price it reasonably and accept offers anytime irrespective of it being a condo or a detached. The reason I say that is because I see almost no home selling above ask. It does look like buyers are looking for ‘good deals’ rather than ‘bidding’.

    1. Karolina

      at 6:08 pm

      Hi David,

      I am a realtor but mainly servicing my own properties. Take a look around the neighbourhood within a 1KM to 2 KM radius to see the other 1 bedroom properties that are getting listed on the MLS. I am sure your unit is beautifully staged and decluttered and you ensured that the showings are easy to book.
      Right now with less people physically looking I would go with option 1 to get as many people interested. Worse case scenario it does not sell at the price your clients want, you can re-list. I live up north in Richmond Hill and re-listing is common. There old rules simply don’t apply to a pandemic.

      1. Karolina

        at 6:17 pm

        Forgot to mention, with the current talks of increasing the downpayment for first time home buyers from 5% to 10%, it’s best to try to sell this 1 bedroom quicker. Who knows when the gov’t will implement new down payment rules. This will affect first time home buyers and will make it harder for some buyers to purchase. This is a great time to list and sell any level entry property.
        Option # 1

        1. condodweller

          at 10:04 pm

          That is a good point regarding the possibility of min 10% down payment affecting entry level homes. However I would probably list with slightly below what I think it is actually worth, say 20-25k.

        2. Jimbo

          at 9:11 am

          Government would collapse and a snap election would happen if they tabled 10% down payment.

          They are more likely to go 30 year mortgage over 10% down imo.

          My belief has always been 20% down minimum should’ve been the law from the getgo, but if you did that now you would collapse the only retirement vehicle most families have relied on over the last 20 years. Real estate is systemic to Canadian household success.

        3. BHT

          at 2:28 pm

          the argument could be made that the min-down entry-level will always be competitive, because it is exactly that: entry-level, and there is always more at the bottom than the top. even at 10% min down, it is still less than 20%.

          i see this affecting the condo market more than anything else of course

  13. jeanmarc

    at 8:35 pm

    This would be my approach

    .stage the place like a model suite
    .take quality pictures (not quantity) and put 8-9 of the best pics and video on listing

    .option #1 but no hold back/offer date

    .this brings the interest without the restrictions
    .serious buyers will step up, disregard offers that are not to the sellers liking
    .just need one buyer

    1. Caprice

      at 8:48 pm

      Agreed with jeanmarc… Under list, stage/market to perfection, maximum exposure and see what the market brings… Option 1 for both condo and house

      1. jeanmarc

        at 9:05 pm

        The key is how well you make the place “desirable” to the buyer regardless of location. Obviously, demand areas (i.e. Leslieville, Leaside, Riverdale, Playter Estates, High Park, Beaches, etc.) would be a plus in terms getting a larger “over asking price” spread.

  14. Fearless Freep

    at 10:05 pm

    No contest, Option #1 for both condo and house. I know many people consider it dishonest, underhanded, immoral, etc. (without ever explaining why) but I consider their irrational emotional reaction proves the tactic’s efficacy. Get those animal spirits stirred up!

  15. Chris

    at 8:49 am

    Some more manufactured support for my dogma:

    “Please question the motivation of anyone who wants you to believe prices will go up (yes, up) with our economy in slow motion, oil being given away, millions of Canadians on income support and a greater % of mortgages not being paid than we’ve seen since the Great Depression.”

    – Evan Siddall, President & CEO, CMHC

    https://twitter.com/ewsiddall/status/1265851878518243329?

    1. Thomas

      at 10:19 am

      That is a very serious statement. That alone is sufficient for me to move my home buying time-frame forward by another 6 months.

    2. Appraiser

      at 10:28 am

      Siddall’s response to the Re/Max report from yesterday:

      “…saying essentially that house prices don’t go down. They’re whistling past the graveyard…”

      Nowhere in the article he refers to did Re/Max state that house prices don’t go down. Pure fiction.

      And a person of his stature invoking the hackneyed “whistling past the graveyard” analogy is just sad.

      1. Chris

        at 10:38 am

        “Sellers simply won’t accept that kind of discount on their listings. A statement of this nature is panic-inducing and irresponsible.”

        – Christopher Alexander, Executive Vice President and Regional Director, RE/MAX of Ontario Atlantic Canada

        “Some vocal real estate advisors have labelled us ‘panic-inducing and irresponsible,’ saying essentially that house prices don’t go down. They’re whistling past the graveyard and offering no analysis. Here’s ours. You decide.”

        – Evan Siddall, President and CEO, CMHC

      2. Thomas

        at 10:39 am

        Nice try! They didnt say that house prices wont go down. They only said that house prices would go up next year (after a pandemic which we havent completely understood yet)

      3. Chris

        at 10:40 am

        “I think Re/Max execs need a history lesson because home prices in 905 regions fell by 20%+ in 4 months in 2017 & we were not heading into a recession and did not have massive unemployment. This does not mean CMHC is right, but ignoring the risks today is silly”

        – John Pasalis

        https://twitter.com/JohnPasalis/status/1265724073436463106

        1. Bal

          at 11:09 am

          Chris- I am sure that you are not a realtor…are you an investor? I know it is a bit of a personal question…but I think realtors and investors are more on the bull side and people who are planning to buy house more on bear side…i might be wronf

          1. Thomas

            at 11:58 am

            Hi Bal, I am not sure if all buyers are bears. I have noticed that some buyers end up paying a lot more than what a house is worth. They dont spend enough time looking at the data that is freely available and it is one of my grouses. And there are also buyers who ‘think’ that real estate is the best investment. It is probably the fear of missing out for the first time buyers than being bullish but isn’t it a fine line.

  16. Chris

    at 11:28 am

    No, certainly not a realtor! I’m not really any of those, Bal. I tend not to keep my own situation private, for the same reasons I use an alias, and a VPN to alter my IP – there are a lot of angry, unstable people on the internet, as you may have noticed.

      1. Chris

        at 12:05 pm

        Oops, meant to say I tend to, rather than tend not to. I think you got the gist of it despite my error.

  17. Chris

    at 4:05 pm

    More manufactured support:

    “…we foresee a marked drop in prices, about 10%, sharper than in any of the country’s last three recessions.

    …there are risk factors in our scenario that could deepen the slide of home prices. For one, a larger-than-expected reduction of immigration in coming quarters. For another, a rise in the minimum down payments as suggested by the CMHC May 15 could lead us to revise down our forecast.

    In Toronto, where we see -13%…”

    – Is Canadian residential real estate teetering on the brink? By Matthieu Arseneau and Alexandra Ducharme, National Bank of Canada, Financial Markets

    https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/special-report_200527.pdf

    All hail the dogma of “bears!!”

    1. Thomas

      at 4:35 pm

      It is funny how a lot of people have taken offense to the CMHC forecast. It is also more hypocritical than funny.

      CMHC’s mission is to help Canadians with their housing needs and help them with the information to make the right choices. That is what they are doing now!

      1. Chris

        at 5:01 pm

        Yep, some folks, like that Dustan fellow, don’t seem to understand what CMHC’s mandate is. It’s not to endlessly promote home ownership. And, as LGJP astutely said, CMHC has access to more data and insight than other analysts or economists.

        But if people want to discard forecasts their forecast, such is their right. Time will tell how accurate they turn out to be.

  18. Kyle

    at 4:56 pm

    While many bears, continue to pin hopes on predictions for a crash in the Canadian real estate market (which isn’t actually a thing), because that’s the only thing they can find to support their dogma

    Actual data for Toronto ‘s real estate market continues to improve just as David pointed out in the blog above:

    https://twitter.com/areacode416/status/1266020043508322305

    1. Chris

      at 5:19 pm

      Oh, you must have missed CMHC’s publication of their more granular forecasts:

      https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/data-and-research/publications-and-reports/housing-market-outlook-canada-and-major-centres

      Upper bound has Ontario prices bottoming at -12%, while lower bound has them bottoming at -22%.

      But hey, more places selling over asking! Could be a sign the impact of the pandemic is done? Or, could be some of those new pricing strategies that David discusses here? Who knows!

      1. Appraiser

        at 10:06 pm

        CMHC’s new housing market report – available via this page:
        https://cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/data-and-research/publications-and-reports/housing-market-outlook-canada-and-major-centres
        drew essentially the right conclusion, that it is impossible to confidently forecast in this situation. So why did they publish explicit forecasts? I don’t get it. They’ve just incited contention. ~Will Dunning

        https://twitter.com/LooseCannonEcon/status/1265728328058777610

    1. Chris

      at 9:56 am

      I would suggest you read the bill for yourself. This seems to be the section getting groups like Blog TO and Parkdale Organize all worked up:

      “Applications by landlord for compensation

      Currently, under sections 87 and 89, an application for arrears of rent, for compensation for the use and occupation of a rental unit by an overholding tenant or for compensation for damage to the rental unit may be made only if the tenant is in possession of the unit. Sections 87 and 89 are amended to provide that such applications may be made while the tenant is in possession of the unit or no later than one year after the tenant or former tenant ceased to be in possession of the unit.

      Under new section 88.1, a landlord may make an application for compensation for interference with the reasonable enjoyment of the residential complex or with another lawful right, privilege or interest of the landlord and, under new section 88.2, a landlord may make an application for compensation for failure to pay utility costs that a tenant or former tenant was required to pay. Such applications may be made while the tenant is in possession of the unit or no later than one year after the tenant or former tenant ceased to be in possession of the unit.

      Section 189.0.1 is added to provide that if, at the time a landlord makes any of the applications described above, the tenant or former tenant is no longer in possession, the landlord must give the tenant or former tenant a copy of the application and a copy of any notice of hearing issued by the Board and must, in specified circumstances, file with the Board a certificate of service on the tenant or former tenant.”

      All that essentially seems to be changing here is that you now have a year after the tenant moves out to seek compensation for unpaid rent, rather than having to do so only while they are still in the home. However, to do so, you have to serve them with the application and notice of hearings, which will likely be logistically difficult – how often do you know where your former tenants have moved to?

      I couldn’t find anything about expedited evictions where a tenant is in non-compliance with an arrears order. Probably wouldn’t be a bad idea though, as in this case, they’ve already taken up LTB time by having an arrears order issued.

      As for raising persistent disrepair issues, that is still permitted, but the tenant is required to raise it in advance of the hearing. Doesn’t seem unreasonable.

      In addition, the bill increases the penalties for bad faith evictions, and requires an affidavit for more evictions, which are both in the tenant’s favour.

      Nothing in this bill really seems to change the current situation dramatically.

      1. Kyle

        at 10:46 am

        Section 82 of the Act is repealed and the following substituted:
        Tenant issues
        82 (1) At a hearing of an application by a landlord under section 69 for an order terminating a tenancy and evicting a tenant
        based on a notice of termination under section 59, the Board shall permit the tenant to raise any issue that could be the subject
        of an application made by the tenant under this Act if the tenant,
        (a) complies with the requirements set out in subsection (2); or
        (b) provides an explanation satisfactory to the Board explaining why the tenant could not comply with the requirements set
        out in subsection (2).
        Requirements to be met by tenant
        (2) The requirements referred to in subsection (1) are the following:
        1. The tenant shall give advance notice to the landlord of the tenant’s intent to raise the issue at the hearing.
        2. The notice shall be given within the time set out in the Rules.
        3. The notice shall be given in writing and shall comply with the Rules.

        The tenant requirements are very black or white here, this should clear up the post-pandemic back log relatively quickly.

        1. Chris

          at 11:14 am

          Yes, as I stated, tenants can raise issues such as persistent disrepair during a hearing. There are no restrictions on what they can or cannot raise, only the requirement that they raise the issue before the hearing.

          Not sure how or why you think this will clear up the post-pandemic back log? The only cases that are apparently (per Blog TO etc.) being fast tracked are those in which a rent arrears order is not being complied with – again, which I could not find in the bill itself.

          Seems many cases will still be eligible for hearings, once the eviction moratorium is ended. Again, I don’t see this materially changing the situation.

          1. Kyle

            at 11:45 am

            https://twitter.com/ParkdaleOrg/status/1265641314743394306

            Anyone who followed the terrible Keep Your Rent movement’s advice and withheld their rent without having first made arrangements with their landlord or provided notice of intent to raise an issue at the hearing should probably start thinking about how they can get caught up on back rent.

          2. Chris

            at 12:46 pm

            Uh huh, again, doesn’t materially change the situation in my estimation. Withholding rent was already grounds for eviction – it still is, and the eviction moratorium is still on, and the LTB still has a huge backlog of cases (with a very small number that may be fast tracked now under Bill 184).

            I would suggest reading the link with the explanation from two real estate lawyers, rather than the interpretation from Parkdale Organize, who seem to get all in a tizzy over the smallest of changes they perceive will disadvantage tenants.

            Frankly, I’m a bit surprised they aren’t celebrating the increased requirements around affidavits, and higher penalties for bad faith evictions.

          3. Kyle

            at 1:46 pm

            It may not make a difference in your estimation, but it makes a boatload of difference in the real world. Your estimation is based on some flawed belief that Landlords that are entitled to get an eviction order when their tenants not paying rent, were actually getting eviction orders out of the Tribunal. This is not the case, Tenants could come up with some issue on the spot, and that would result in the Landlord having to go back and resolve whatever issue was raised then going back for another hearing. Part of why there is such a backlog.

          4. Chris

            at 1:51 pm

            Still on this? And once again trying to pass off your opinion as fact.

            This bill will speed up a small number of eviction orders, but not nearly enough to make a discernible impact, in my estimation. Particularly after the LTB has been suspended for all these months, once they finally get back to work.

            If you have data showing otherwise, by all means, offer it up. Otherwise, you’re just providing your opinion as counter to mine, while trying to label it as factual with qualifiers such as “in the real world”.

          5. Kyle

            at 2:09 pm

            “Most applications for evictions are for arrears and many landlords are using the Tribunal as a way of getting tenants to pay their rent. Arrears account for an estimated 85% of eviction applications….

            From a survey of private landlords, it is estimated that two-thirds of eviction orders do not result in tenants being evicted, that is, they stay in their home, while a third are evicted.”

            http://www.urbancentre.utoronto.ca/pdfs/elibrary/Toronto_Rental-Housing-Evic.pdf

          6. Chris

            at 2:14 pm

            So of the evictions that go to hearing, 85% are for arrears, 66% of those are not provided…and how many are not provided because the tenant springs a disrepair concern during the hearing? All this bill changes is they need to raise it before. Again, not really a huge change.

            Also, this survey is from 2004. Pretty antiquated data.

          7. Kyle

            at 2:30 pm

            Of course it’s a huge change, If the Tenant doesn’t raise it before the hearing then the eviction order goes through. If they raise it before but haven’t paid up, the Landlord arrives at the hearing with whatever documentation he needs to show that the issue has been addressed, and the eviction order goes through. It goes from about 1/3 to closer to 100%.

            So what if it’s from 2004, Do you have data to counter it or to show that these percentages have changed since then. If not, simply saying it’s not valid due to age, would be you passing off your counter opinions as “facts”.

          8. Chris

            at 2:33 pm

            Guess we’ll have to wait to see, once the eviction moratorium is lifted, if evictions granted goes from 33% to 100%. Somehow I doubt it.

            I said the data is antiquated, not invalid. Suggest you read more carefully.

            Have a great day, Kyle!

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