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Stories! | June 5, 2020


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11 Comments

    1. Chris

      at 1:29 pm

      “Quebec accounted for nearly 80% of May’s gains, the statistics agency said. In contrast, Ontario -– where the economy remained largely shut until May 19 –- saw more losses.”

      Unemployment rate up to 13.7%.

      “From StatCan: “In May, employment rose by 290,000 (+1.8%), while the number of people who worked less than half their usual hours dropped by 292,000 (-8.6%)”

      Meanwhile, number of CERB recipients up 1.03 million in May.

      🤔”

      – Ben Rabidoux

      https://twitter.com/benrabidoux/status/1268885279324147714

      1. M

        at 4:50 pm

        The May data did not capture the 1.4 million people who temporarily lost their jobs due to COVID-19 closures, but are not currently looking for employment, StatsCan said. Had those numbers been counted, the May unemployment rate would have been 19.6% rather than 13.7%.

    2. Pragma

      at 3:17 pm

      The numbers will look great on the surface but you have to look beyond the headline. We are bouncing off extreme levels, so relative to that yes very good, But for now the only thing you can gleam from them is that the absolute worst case scenarios will not be the likely path forward.

      Next, look at the US numbers. Workforce participation dropped from 63.5% to 60.8%. If you include that then the unemployment rate will jump from 13.3% to 16.8%.

      The unemployment rate in Canada “beat” expectations. Only 13.7% vs 15%. Great!

      In absolute terms, these are still terrible numbers indicating a severe recession. There is a very big risk that job losses will start “moving up the chain” to white collar workers and managers as we look past COVID and start to reflect lower corporate earnings and shrinking trade volumes.

      I think the US will recover much faster than Canada as the US consumer is much less indebted and still has the capacity to spend.

    1. Chris

      at 8:30 am

      Didn’t like the responses the first time around so just figured you’d post it again?

      1. Appraiser

        at 10:15 am

        Tell us again what it’s like to be just another perma-bear, perpetually behind the curve.

        Does the comfort of other bears validate and console you?

        1. Chris

          at 12:47 pm

          Someone’s cranky. Still not getting much work these days? Must be stressful.

    2. Chris

      at 1:04 pm

      “Frances Donald, chief economist at Manulife Investment Management, says we shouldn’t feel too comfortable because it remains a very painful labour market. She wonders how many jobs are possibly being propped up by aid and essentially on “palliative care”.”

      – BNN Bloomberg

      https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/economics/video/still-much-suffering-under-the-surface-of-canada-s-jobs-market-manulife-s-donald~1972157

      Looks like you’re behind the curve on the unemployment data, appraiser.

  1. Chris

    at 1:06 pm

    “CMHC draws fire for tightening mortgage rules

    “If the government proceeds with this, the dampening of housing activity will worsen the economic pressures, further impairing the economy,” said Will Dunning, an economist who specializes in housing market analysis at Will Dunning Inc.

    About 13 per cent of down payments by first-time home buyers over the past four years came from financing, according to the latest annual survey of the mortgage market from Mortgage Professionals Canada.”

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/cmhc-draws-fire-for-tightening-mortgage-rules-1.1445837

    So much for being a nothingburger. Behind the curve on this one too, appraiser!

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