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Stories!
< 1 minute read
June 5, 2020
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Pick5 is a weekly series comparing and analyzing five residential properties based on price, style, location, and neighbourhood.
Stories!
< 1 minute read
June 5, 2020
Pick5 is a weekly series comparing and analyzing five residential properties based on price, style, location, and neighbourhood.
Appraiser
at 11:40 am
“Bouncing back? Canada added 290,000 jobs in May”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-jobs-may-1.5599719
“U.S. economy added 2.5 million jobs in May as states reopened from COVID-19”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/economy-jobs-covid-1.5599744
Chris
at 1:29 pm
“Quebec accounted for nearly 80% of May’s gains, the statistics agency said. In contrast, Ontario -– where the economy remained largely shut until May 19 –- saw more losses.”
Unemployment rate up to 13.7%.
“From StatCan: “In May, employment rose by 290,000 (+1.8%), while the number of people who worked less than half their usual hours dropped by 292,000 (-8.6%)”
Meanwhile, number of CERB recipients up 1.03 million in May.
????”
– Ben Rabidoux
https://twitter.com/benrabidoux/status/1268885279324147714
M
at 4:50 pm
The May data did not capture the 1.4 million people who temporarily lost their jobs due to COVID-19 closures, but are not currently looking for employment, StatsCan said. Had those numbers been counted, the May unemployment rate would have been 19.6% rather than 13.7%.
Chris
at 3:10 pm
This probably helps explain some of the discrepancy between CERB and unemployment figures:
“In a shock to expectations, Canada added 290k jobs in May. While down from April, 2.7 million Canadians reported they were employed but worked no hours.”
– Scotiabank Economics
https://www.scotiabank.com/content/dam/scotiabank/sub-brands/scotiabank-economics/english/documents/scotia-flash/scotiaflash20200605.pdf
Pragma
at 3:17 pm
The numbers will look great on the surface but you have to look beyond the headline. We are bouncing off extreme levels, so relative to that yes very good, But for now the only thing you can gleam from them is that the absolute worst case scenarios will not be the likely path forward.
Next, look at the US numbers. Workforce participation dropped from 63.5% to 60.8%. If you include that then the unemployment rate will jump from 13.3% to 16.8%.
The unemployment rate in Canada “beat” expectations. Only 13.7% vs 15%. Great!
In absolute terms, these are still terrible numbers indicating a severe recession. There is a very big risk that job losses will start “moving up the chain” to white collar workers and managers as we look past COVID and start to reflect lower corporate earnings and shrinking trade volumes.
I think the US will recover much faster than Canada as the US consumer is much less indebted and still has the capacity to spend.
Appraiser
at 6:01 am
“In May, employment rose by 290,000 (+1.8%), while the number of people who worked less than half their usual hours dropped by 292,000 (-8.6%). Combined, these changes in the labour market represented a recovery of 10.6% of the COVID-19-related employment losses and absences recorded in the previous two months.”
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/200605/dq200605a-eng.htm
Chris
at 8:30 am
Didn’t like the responses the first time around so just figured you’d post it again?
Appraiser
at 10:15 am
Tell us again what it’s like to be just another perma-bear, perpetually behind the curve.
Does the comfort of other bears validate and console you?
Chris
at 12:47 pm
Someone’s cranky. Still not getting much work these days? Must be stressful.
Chris
at 1:04 pm
“Frances Donald, chief economist at Manulife Investment Management, says we shouldn’t feel too comfortable because it remains a very painful labour market. She wonders how many jobs are possibly being propped up by aid and essentially on “palliative care”.”
– BNN Bloomberg
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/economics/video/still-much-suffering-under-the-surface-of-canada-s-jobs-market-manulife-s-donald~1972157
Looks like you’re behind the curve on the unemployment data, appraiser.
Chris
at 1:06 pm
“CMHC draws fire for tightening mortgage rules
“If the government proceeds with this, the dampening of housing activity will worsen the economic pressures, further impairing the economy,” said Will Dunning, an economist who specializes in housing market analysis at Will Dunning Inc.
About 13 per cent of down payments by first-time home buyers over the past four years came from financing, according to the latest annual survey of the mortgage market from Mortgage Professionals Canada.”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/cmhc-draws-fire-for-tightening-mortgage-rules-1.1445837
So much for being a nothingburger. Behind the curve on this one too, appraiser!