I’ve never really been into gambling.

In fact, as I get older, I become more disenfranchised with the concept of gambling to begin with – especially sports gambling.

When I was younger, I would lay some bets here or there.  This was before gambling was legal, of course, so I’m talking about “old school” betting through Nicky The Knife or Shovel-Face Johnny.

But eventually, you come to realize (or not…) that the house always wins.  Always.

Ask a random sample of males aged 18-39, and they’ll tell you they’re great sports gamblers.  They’re really good at it.  They win all the time.

As the Saturday Night Live character, Linda Richman used to say, “Denial ain’t just a river in Egypt.”

Now I’m so old and resembling that grey-haired man shaking his fist at a cloud as it passes overhead that I’m actually mad at the television commercials glorifying sports gambling.  The house always wins.  So this is merely an opportunity to drain after-tax income from Canadians at a time when people are struggling.  Why not start advertising for crack as well?

When my children are old enough to know what gambling is, I’ll probably shield their eyes from the TV when gambling commercials come on, much like our parents shielded our eyes from that brief moment of nudity in a rental VHS cassette back in the 1980’s (for the record, my parents didn’t, but my friends’ parents did…)

In any event, the 2025 TRB Real Estate Prediction Game is not gambling.

You folks have no “skin” in the game and nothing to lose.

The year has absolutely flown by, and I can’t believe it’s been almost six months since I posted this blog:

February 3rd, 2025: “The 2025 TRB Real Estate Prediction Game”

On the weekend, I was looking at the predictions that people made, and it’s crazy just how much the benefit of hindsight can play a factor!

Just for fun, let’s do a mid-year tally and see how everybody fared.

Here are the ten questions in the game:

1) What will be the average home price for 2025? (point scored if guess is +/- 2%)
2) Which month of the year will represent the highest average home price? (point scored for correct month)
3) Will any individual month’s average home price top $1,200,000? (point scored for correct Y/N)
4) How many total sales will there be in 2025? (point scored if guess is +/- 5%)
5) Which month of the year will represent the highest number of total sales? (point scored for correct month)
6) Will any individual month of the year see more than 8,000 sales? (point scored for correct Y/N)
7) How many total new listings will there be in 2025? (point stored if guess is +/- 10%).
8) How many individual months will see more than 20,000 active listings (point scored for correct number)
9) Will any individual month of the year see an average GTA condo price higher than the ‘peak’ price of $767,064 recorded in May of 2024? (point scored for correct Y/N)
10) What will the Bank of Canada policy rate be after the last announcement on December 10th, 2025?) (point scored for correct number)

So with that in mind, let’s have a look at where the ten questions might land by year’s end, and which of our thirty-two TRB contestants is in the lead…

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1) What will be the average home price for 2025? (point scored if guess is +/- 2%)

The average sale in each month so far in 2025 is as follows:

However, there are more sales in June and fewer in February, for example, so let’s use a weighted average through the six months.

The weighted average is $1,095,467.

That means our “range” for an accurate guess would be from $1,073,557 to $1,117,375.

Only 5/32 contestants would have gotten this correct if the year ended today:

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2) Which month of the year will represent the highest average home price? (point scored for correct month)

This one isn’t quite fair, since we’re only halfway through the year.

But if the month of May holds as the peak for average home price, the following contestants get a point:

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3) Will any individual month’s average home price top $1,200,000? (point scored for correct Y/N)

Again, we’re only halfway through the year.

But with the “peak” in the spring sitting at $1,120,879, it’s looking like this one will end in a “N.”

That would give the following contestants a point:

Derek is crushing it so far…

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4) How many total sales will there be in 2025? (point scored if guess is +/- 5%)

This one is going to be eye-opening.

Through six months, we’ve only seen 30,983 total sales.

Double that, and we’re at 61,966, which would not only be the lowest number of sales this millennium (since I started tracking this data) but also way below the previous low of 66,315 from 2013.

Our 5% margin provides us with a range of: 58,868 to 65,064.

That means only 3/32 contestants receive a point!

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5) Which month of the year will represent the highest number of total sales? (point scored for correct month)

It’s also not fair to judge this question halfway through the year, but so far, the month of May saw the most sales.

May had one more sale than June.

But TRREB annoyingly revises these numbers by year-end, so I have no idea how this one will look, and what data we should use.  God, I hope this isn’t the tie-breaker!  Let’s agree now that we use the data as it was put out, ie. 6,244 sales in May and 6,243 sales in June, okay?

For the record, 15/32 contestants chose May, including Derek, no surprise.

But 7/32 chose October, so we have to leave that door open.

Amazingly, nobody chose September.

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6) Will any individual month of the year see more than 8,000 sales? (point scored for correct Y/N)

With the highest number of sales sitting at 6,244, we would have to see a ridiculous fall market to top 8,000 in any of September, October, or November.

This is too early to call, but I’m about 90% confident that the answer is “N.”

Only 11/32 contestants said “N” while, amazingly, 21/32 said “Y.”

We were a really confident bunch!

Here are the folks who said “NO”:

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7) How many total new listings will there be in 2025? (point stored if guess is +/- 10%).

Through the first six months of 2025, we’ve seen a whopping 102,215 new listings.

Double that, and we’re at 204,430.

That provides a 10% range of: 183,987 – 224,873.

Guess how many contestants receive a point here?

Zero.

Oscar was at the top of the list with a prediction of 276,888 (I think he was trolling…), but the next highest was JL with 180,000.

This one is fascinating!

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8) How many individual months will see more than 20,000 active listings (point scored for correct number)

Again, way too early to call.

We’ve already seen four months with over 20,000 active listings, including over 30,000 (for the first time ever, as I’ve written on TRB) in both May and June.

I can’t see the number of active listings dropping from June’s 31,603 to below 20,000, but I also can’t just assume points given for July through December.

We’ll have to wait on this one.

12/32 contestants said there would be 0 – 4 months in total, which will end up being incorrect.

5/32 contestants said “5,” and another 4/32 said “6,” which I also think will be incorrect.

In fact, Oscar said 10, likely as a joke, but if every month from July through December sees 20,000+ active listings, then Oscar is right!

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9) Will any individual month of the year see an average GTA condo price higher than the ‘peak’ price of $767,064 recorded in May of 2024? (point scored for correct Y/N)

The peak so far has been $732,232, which was in June.

That was a massive increase over the $709,905 recorded in May, so I have no idea how that happened.

In any event, it would take an absolute miracle to top the peak price of $767,064 from 2024, so I can assume with about 99% accuracy that this is an “N.”

That would mean 27/32 contestants receive a point:

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10) What will the Bank of Canada policy rate be after the last announcement on December 10th, 2025?) (point scored for correct number)

Also, not a question we can answer just yet!

The rate is currently 2.75%, and it’s hard to predict what could happen from here on out.

Remember, we were positive we would see cuts in June and July.  Then we were positive we’d see a cut in one of those months.  Now, we’re simply positive we’ll see one more this year.

Assuming the rate doesn’t go up, then Oscar and Hoob would be the only contestants eliminated.

Assuming we do see another cut, and the rate does not stay at 2.75%, then Sigruper, J, and Laurie Hung would be eliminated.

Assuming we don’t see rates below 2.00%, then Lauzy, Ed, Toad, Kyle, and London Agent would be eliminated.

There are another nine contestants at 2.00% even, but assuming we see one more cut of 25 points or two more cuts of 25 points, the following contestants are in contention:

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Alright, folks, there you have it!

For those of you who entered the contest, which is the one question that you’d like to do over, if you could?

For me, it’s the number of sales.

I predicted 78,000, which would have been a 15% increase over 2024.  I figured that after a slew of interest rate cuts, the number of entrants to the market would increase.  Not only that, we’re coming off all-time low sales volume, so predicting an increase wasn’t all that crazy!

But we’ll be lucky if three or four contestants receive a point for Question #4.

So, how is everybody else feeling about their predictions?