X-Condos: Before & After

Condos

6 minute read

March 16, 2011

Now that there have been a good four months worth of resales at X-Condos, I feel it warrants a look back at what these investors (okay, okay, I’m sure some of these people were actual users) paid for their units back in the day.

I’ve been keeping an archive of old condo sales brochures here in the basement of Bosley Real Estate, and it’s times like this when I knew this six foot stack of cardboard would come in handy…

A friend of a friend lives in a building “at Mount Pleasant and Jarvis,” as the friend describes it.

I find this funny since those two streets are really the same and don’t exactly intersect, but what’s even funnier is that she describes here new condo as “the one with the giant crayons out front.”

Just what exactly are those red cylinders pictured above?  Some sort of modern art?

Last Friday, I went to this young lady’s housewarming party at the building with the crayons, otherwise known as “X Condos,” hoping that I might fit in with the slightly younger demographic.

But as soon as I walked through the front door of the 2-bedroom (if you call a 6 x 7 room a “bedroom”), 2-bathroom condo on the 13th floor, I was greeted with that nostalgic, drunken song we all know from university: “O-lay, o-lay, o-lay, o-lay…..o…..laaaaaay, ooooo laaaay.”

Yes, it was a group of adults playing flip-cup.

I’ve never really enjoyed flip-cup.

It’s not just because I didn’t feel the need to act macho when I was in university (although perhaps all the bodybuilding and karate tournaments demonstrated otherwise…), but because I found the game to be pointless and stupid.

I’m not a party crasher – I just don’t like drinking to excess for no reason.

At the risk of getting off topic here, let me take this one step further and tell you how I feel about the time-tested display of macho-ness known as the keg stand.

I could never understand why people did this!

I was at so many university parties where guys were lifted upside down to drink beer through a tube and have it spilled all over their faces and I wondered “Why are they doing that?”

Soon it would be my turn, and I’d say, “No thanks, I’m good.”

There was always that group of guys that would say, “What’s the problem?  Are you some kind of wimp?”

Those are likely the same type of guys pictured here:

And I’d think to myself, “No, I’m just good here – quietly sipping beer from a cup, at a standard and comfortable pace.  I don’t need to be lifted upside down, have a filthy tube shoved in my mouth, so I can ‘chug’ beer excessively and have my shirt soaked with whatever the cheapest beer in existence currently is.  I’m good – don’t worry about me.”

Maybe I’m just old and boring.  Or maybe I’m rational and I’ve always displayed common sense…

Last weekend at X-Condos, I watched a dozen young adults drink excessive amounts of cheap beer out of red cups, and I secretly bet on which ones would be throwing up a short while later.  I only wish I had put money on it…

There was a large kitchen island, made of a nice white granite, which served as the playing surface for the Game of The Night.  Within a couple hours, the hardwood floor was soaked with spilled beer, which likely was never cleaned up, and the beautiful granite counter was about as sticky as George The Animal Steele covered in honey.

This is somebody’s investment property, and that real estate investor has leased out his unit to a couple of young adults who, despite their mature collection of wooden hangers in the walk-in closet, and the lack of Scarface posters on the wall, are essentially grown-up university students.

A lot of investors sold their units during the occupancy phase, and now that the building has been registered for coming up to a half-year, even more investors are selling their units on the resale market.

I managed to dig up the old X-Condos brochure from March of 2006, and it proved for a rather interesting read.

For starters, look at the brochure itself:

At the time, this was ground-breaking!

Look at the design – it’s so simple.  It’s just a black book with an “X.”

Times have changed, and pre-construction condominium marketing has entered a whole new era of launch parties and laser light shows, but back in 2006, this simple design of the brochure itself lured in the investors from near and far.

The “pre-opening” for X-Condos took place on March 22nd, 2006, and I attended.

I was looking for an investment property at the time but I had already contracted to purchase another property and thus my cash flow situation was not ideal.

The small 1-bedroom units were being sold for a paltry $179,990, but the developer wanted a whopping 25% downpayment before occupancy!

I’ve always maintained that I will only buy pre-construction condos if they allow 10% down, no more.  Well, X-Condos wanted 5% within 30 days, 5% within 60 days, 5% within 120 days, 2.5% in 9 months, 2.5% in 18 months, and then 5% upon occupancy.

Even if you were able to wiggle out of the latter two payments, you were still on the hook for 17.5% within 9 months.  That just didn’t work for me.

These junior-one-bedroom units were selling for $347 per square foot; an unthinkable price as we look at the 2011 marketplace.

The “Le Corbusier” model was priced even lower at $338 per square, and models ranged from 518 square feet to 935 square feet in the planned 43-storey tower, although models exist up to 1660 square feet.

So how did these investors end up doing?

What are resale prices like today and how do they compare to what was paid in March of 2006?

The last unit sold in the building was the “Mackintosh” model – a one-bedroom-plus-den unit measuring 593 square feet.  The unit had no parking space, but did have a locker, and sold for $369,900.

This model was originally sold for $226,990 in March of 2006, and an additional $3,500 was paid for the locker.

Not a bad little pay day!  A profit of $139,410 inside of five years.

The reason I always elect to put down a maximum of 10% is because the return on investment is much greater than a property where you’re required to come up with 20% inside of 18 months.  Don’t forget – this $139,410 profit isn’t the return on the $226,990 originally paid, but rather the $45,398 deposit paid within those 18 months, as well as the additional $11,349.50 that was handed over upon occupancy in 2010.  The math is too complex for my small brain, but the ROI is huge.

The “Eames” model also did exceptionally well for investors, particularly the one that sold last month for $500,000.  This is a 2-bedroom unit measuring 803 square feet, and it originally sold for $272,990 plus $29,500 for parking.

That’s just shy of a $200,000 profit for the investor.

This was the same model in which I witnessed the infamous game of flip cup, and I’ll be brutally honest when I say that never once did I feel like I was in a half-million-dollar condo.  But what can you do when you live in a shoe?

Interestingly enough, another one of the “Eames” models sold a month earlier for $417,000, albeit without parking, and 20 floors lower than the one that sold for $501,000.  This unit was vacant during the listing, whereas the $501,000 unit was staged.  Don’t ever balk at the importance of staging again!  Parking can be valued at around $40,000 in this building, and there is certainly a premium on a unit located on the 40th floor, but this still leaves a price gap that I think can be directly attributed to the staging.  Good work!

The “Neutra” model was sold a couple months back for $565,000 with parking.

This 935 square foot, 2-bedroom-plus-den, 2-bathroom unit was originally sold for $333,990, plus $29,500 for parking.  Once again, we see another $200,000 profit for whoever had the foresight (and money!) to hunker down 20-25% back in 2006.

Finally, the “Breuer” unit, which was originally sold for $238,990 plus $29,500 for parking, and recently turned over for $435,000 on the resale market.

One way of looking at each of these sales is by the cost per square foot.

Let’s review:

Mackintosh – $624/sqft in 2011 (no parking), $388/sqft in 2006.
Eames – $624/sqft in 2011, $377/sqft in 2006.
Neutra – $604/sqft in 2011, $389/sqft in 2006.
Breuer – $615/sqft in 2011, $379/sqft in 2006.

All of these calculations account for the $29,500 for parking and $3,500 that was paid back in 2006.

Interestingly enough, the smaller units – the “Aalto” and the “Wright” units that measure 518 and 545 square feet respectively, seem to be trading for well under $600 per square foot, although keep in mind that you were NOT permitted to purchase a parking space with these units.

I’m amazed at the sale of the Mackintosh unit for $624/sqft with no parking!  Some people will pay big bucks for the view or if a unit shows well via staging.

I love the design of this building from the exterior.  It’s a sleek black tower the likes of which Toronto has never seen before.

But keep in mind that there are condos being built immediately north AND south of X-Condos, and many of the “premium” views will soon be obstructed.

To all the investors who purchased at X-Condos, I say “Job very well done!”

You could have thrown darts at a board to pick your pre-construction condo projects back in 2006, and every one of them would have made money.  How much money is another story, and investors at X-Condos certainly led the way.

It once again reminds me why there is no money to be made in pre-construction condos in 2011.

More on this coming Friday with a delicious video…

Written By David Fleming

David Fleming is the author of Toronto Realty Blog, founded in 2007. He combined his passion for writing and real estate to create a space for honest information and two-way communication in a complex and dynamic market. David is a licensed Broker and the Broker of Record for Bosley – Toronto Realty Group

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9 Comments

  1. Joe Q.

    at 11:05 am

    Sorry David, but I think there’s some misleading math going on here. You wrote:

    “The last unit sold in the building was the “Mackintosh” model – a one-bedroom-plus-den unit measuring 593 square feet. The unit had no parking space, but did have a locker, and sold for $369,900.

    This model was originally sold for $226,990 in March of 2006, and an additional $3,500 was paid for the locker.

    Not a bad little pay day! A profit of $139,410 inside of five years.”

    With all due respect, I don’t think you can call the difference between sale price and original purchase price “profit” when the purchase was leveraged.

    Let’s say the original purchaser put down a 20% down-payment and took a five-year mortgage term at 2.5% (fixed mortgage rates were in the 6% range in 2006 but let’s assume that the owner took a low variable-rate mortgage) and 30-year amortization. Let’s also assume he sells after an even five years.

    We then have a $184k mortgage at 2.5% interest over five years — total payments over this period are $44k. Add that to the original down-payment and the total amount spent by the original purchaser is $87k.

    When mortgage term is up after five years, he owes the bank $162k on the mortgage balance. If he sells the condo for $370k, he is left with $370k – $162k = $208k. He spent a total of $87k on the condo, so his profit is actually $121k. This is pretty good, but not $139k.

    Re-run the calculations with the same down-payment and amortization but a fixed 6% mortgage instead (common in 2006) and his “profit” is down to $98k.

    I am neglecting fees, taxes, etc. in this discussion. Clearly the people who bought and then re-sold at these current prices made money, but I think it is too simplistic and really misleading to quote the difference between purchase price and sale price as “profit”, when the investment is leveraged.

    I would appreciate any corrections or comments on my math.

    1. David Fleming

      at 11:42 am

      @ Joe

      I appreciate the lengthy reply.

      However, there is no mortgage put on this property until registration, which in this case was in the fall of 2010.

      If the contract was signed in March of 2006, and the 20% was handed over by 2007, there is a three year gap of nothing but sitting and waiting.

      Even during occupancy, which in this case was early to mid 2010, there was no mortgage. The mortgages for these properties were only in place for 1-4 months, as the investors sold the units within that time period after the building was registered.

      I would assume these investors went with a fully open mortgage to reduce their penalties.

  2. Clifford

    at 11:06 am

    I know someone who bought the Eames unit about 2 years ago for $320K then gave it back during the 10 day cooling off period. Lets just say the very thought of X makes her sick LOL. She could have cleared $150K in 2 years. I’d be kicking myself too.

    I was in the Sales center when they were offering 20-60K off units 2 years ago. And this was when X was a good 1 or 2 storeys above ground. Unreal how the prices have skyrocketed.

  3. Joe Q.

    at 11:09 am

    As a side-note, Jarvis and Mount Pleasant do in fact meet. Mount Pleasant starts on Jarvis a block south of Bloor (this is where the condos are) and heads off to the north-east before turning north and into the Rosedale valley. Jarvis continues on north to Bloor, where it ends. (That section was renamed after Ted Rogers recently.)

    Here it is on Google Maps: http://bit.ly/hqVUhS

    — Joe Q.

  4. Joe Q.

    at 12:09 pm

    Thanks for the clarification on your original comments, David. I see claims about the “profit” made on real-estate transactions so often that I am always skeptical. For those who have mortgages, mortgage interest always seems to be conveniently forgotten.

  5. Ryguy

    at 8:27 am

    Keg stand make my brain hurt

  6. BillyO

    at 3:52 pm

    David,

    Thank for yet another excellent blog post. I have a few questions for you: at the time of the launch of X in 2006, how were the prices at the time received by people such as yourself? Were they considered to reasonable? High?

    As you have eluded to for a future blog post, the pre con prices these days seem to make profiting nearly impossible. I recall when Maple Leaf Sq was $400ish per sq ft and now many suites are listed resale for >$600 psf (whether they sellers get this amount is another story). Across the street Ice is coming up, currently going for ~ $650 psf. At the ground breaking one of the big wigs mentioned that upon it’s completion he sees the building in the $1000 psf range. This all seems incredibly insane given that many resale units in the core are in the range of $500 psf.

    So back to my oriiginal question, what was the mood like in ’06 regarding pre con prices? Were they seen as inflated like how many see pre con today? At what point did the pre con gravy train come to a screeching halt?

    Thanks and I look forward to reading your next blog post.

    So going back to my original question, were the prices of precon

  7. Krupo

    at 9:54 pm

    If memory serves me correctly, there used to be a clear difference between “you can move in now” and pre-con prices. The whole problem is that the developers have “om nom nom’d” the difference and tried to pull it out of people on the spot… and yet enough people ignore the existing housing stock they could own now in favour of something that won’t be around for 3 or 4 years…

  8. Joren Carlson

    at 9:32 am

    David, I followed X from way back when as well. You’ll recall that the cops had to be called to control the mobs of purchasers standing in line and the brawl that broke out when some people tried cutting in line.

    I visited a couple of rental units in there a few weeks back. I don’t know what surprised me more… the 7×9 foot “bedroom”, the cheap-ass finishings (like the wooden-suite doors that have no laminate on the outside and will show every ding and scratch, the fact that landlords were asking upwards of 2 grand a month for a “2 bedroom”, or the fact that people were willing to pay for it!

    It was interesting to me that most of the units I visited were filthy and had never been lived in. Obviously owned by landlords that couldn’t be bothered to so much as run a swiffer around before putting it on the market. Probably because they live outside the GTA/Canada, or just don’t care. Yeah, that bodes well for getting the landlords attention for anything a tenant may need.

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