Is it cliché to suggest that, once again, the most recent year is the “best year ever” for Toronto Realty Blog?
Well, too bad. Because it was.
Every year, I am more and more amazed at not only the interaction and involvement of my readers, but how informed, intelligent, and respectful they are. When I’m asked what I like the most about TRB, what I’m most proud of, what gets me out of bed in the morning, etc., the number-one response out of my mouth is how my readers respond to the blogs.
Take any online publication out there, and show me a higher level of education, intelligence, and respect among the people who comment. I dare you.
So I’d like to thank you all for reading, and commenting, and recognize my most frequent commenters:
Kyle, Chris, Appraiser, Housing Bear, Condodweller, Libertarian, Ralph Cramdown, Professional Shanker, Marina, Izzy Bedibida, Long Time Realtor, Not Harold, A Grant, Real Estate Millennial, Geoff, Ed, David (Not The David Who Runs This Website), Crazyegg, Rachelle, Julia, BillyO, Joel, Kramer, Johnny Chase, Moonbeam, RPG, Marko, Ed, Mike, Potato, Carl, Alexander, IanC, Batalha, Jeff316, Derek, GinaTo, Jackie, Daniel, Sarah, AT555, Frances, Jason, Paully, Graham, Gord McCormick, Craijiji, Free Money, Numberco Owner of Real Estate, Jennifer, Steve, Daniel b, Jeremy, J, Francesca, Tommy, Patrick, MortgageJake, lui, Negotiator, Natrx, Squidward, WEB, Sardonic Lizard, T, hoob, Bill, and anybody else I may have missed, which is something I’m deathly-afraid of doing!
Kyle & Chris – please don’t ever agree on anything. We value your ying-yang relationship too much.
Housing Bear & Appraiser – please don’t ever stray from your one-sided views of the market. The best perspective is always found furthest from the middle.
Ralph Cramdown & Condodweller – please don’t ever take it easy on me, or the other readers. The tears I shed each and every night help to moisturize my aging skin.
Libertarian – please return my calls. We have so much in common!
Chroscklh – please come back. You took a two-year hiatus, and briefly came back into our lives this past June, but we miss you. And your bear.
One day, we should throw a TRB party, and show up with name tags. Imagine? Finally putting faces to names? Or would that remove the mystique of who’s behind the keyboard?
I’m actually sort of sad to be signing off for the year, but perhaps I need the two weeks off to rest up and recharge.
I wish you all a safe, happy, healthy, and stress-free holiday break, although with the benefit of “family time” comes the virtual-guarantee of stress, so let me provide you with the cure-all, for which you will thank me later on: alcohol.
Just a little thing many of us use, responsibly or otherwise, to allow us to tolerate the aunt we don’t like, the sibling that undermines us, the friend who we can’t believe we’re still friends with, and the know-it-all cousin who ironically loves to talk about real estate.
Have an awesome holiday break, a memorable New Year’s, and see you back here in 2019!
David.
Francesca
at 8:18 am
Happy holidays David! Enjoy your well derseved break with your family. Looking forward to many more interesting and insightful blogs in 2019! Happy holidays to all of your readers and commenters too!
Max
at 8:35 am
Happy holidays to you and your family, always reading every blog and waiting for the next one!
Ed
at 8:42 am
Thank you David for the interesting content and perspective you bring.
Maybe Santa will bring you a new Casio for Christmas.
Chris
at 8:53 am
Happy holidays, David, and all. I will do my best to continue disagreeing with Kyle in 2019!
Kyle
at 9:43 am
Thanks David for running this great blog. This is definitely the best source of information for Toronto real estate there is….and it blows my mind that it’s free. Please promise that you’ll never put up a paywall.
Merry Christmas and happy holidays to everyone!
Appraiser
at 1:28 pm
Happy Holidays David. Keep up the great work.
David (Not the David who runs this website)
at 2:48 pm
David, thanks for all your hard work in running your website and blog. I always look forward to your next big topic of discussion. I wish you and your family a merry Christmas.
And Merry Christmas to everyone reading this.
Libertarian
at 2:49 pm
All the best to everyone, whether you’re a bull or bear.
And especially to our host David. Thanks for another year of fun times! Enjoy the two weeks with your wife, daughter, and extended family.
Daniel
at 3:11 pm
Happy Holidays, David! Way to remain PC. 🙂
Thanks for another year of free expert analysis, entertainment, and a forum for people to argue and vent, which in turn provides even MORE entertainment!
Housing Bear
at 4:00 pm
Happy holidays David! Thanks for all the hard work you put into this blog. I Can only imagine how much analysis and the quality of care your provide to your clients, I’m sure your one of the best agents out there. Much deserved break. Expect my doom and gloom in the new year! All the best to you and your family.
Appraiser
at 6:40 pm
“Dow dives 400 points to end its worst week in 10 years”
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/21/us-stocks-set-for-lower-week-after-fed-decision-government-shutdown-fears.html
Couldn’t resist.
Ed
at 9:09 am
Mister, you mean there is no Santa Claus (rally)?
Housing Bear
at 2:32 pm
If your point is haha other investments are doing worse then mine right now then ok but other than that I have no idea why you think this is good news. It’s a terrible sign for the global economy, and if you stop to ask yourself what drove stock valuations so high it’s a lot of the same factors that drove real estate values. Cheap debt, record amounts of it and money printing/ asset buying by central banks. With higher debt costs, decade lows in new credit creation and quantitative tightening all those factors are bow working against asset prices. Remember stocks and bonds call fall and rise much faster because they are liquid investments. Another interest comparison between these investments…….. while most people’s portfolios have taken a hit in total value, they are most likely receiving dividends and coupon payments…… so receiving cash flow and being paid to hold these investments. Recent landlords lose money each month for the right to hold onto their investments. Huge difference.
As a property owner I would also be very worried about how the recent stock market and bond sell offs could impact boomers. With their personal portfolios and pension plans taking a hit, they are even more dependant on their home equity funding their retirement. Most of them experienced early 90s housing unwind first hand, they also saw what happened to our southern neighbors ten years ago……….if times get tough, let’s hope they are all willing to HODL
Appraiser
at 2:54 pm
“Monday’s trading was the worst ever on a Christmas Eve for all 3 U.S. indexes”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/dollar-markets-oil-monday-1.4958332
Dow loses 650 points.
Almost -3% in one day.
Ouch!
Housing Bear
at 4:17 pm
I know! Terrible sign for the economy, and by extension real estate. Especially in markets with inflated prices. Scary right?
Glad I’m not invested in either stocks or real estate right now. Would have ruined my Christmas.
Condodweller
at 7:50 pm
@Appraiser
Dec 26
Dow gains 1086.25 points.
Almost +5% in one day.
Ouch indeed!
Blog Guy
at 4:58 pm
December 27, 4:56 pm:
Dow Jones up 6.18% since Christmas Eve
S&P 500 up 5.86% since Christmas Eve
NASDAQ up 6.24% since Christmas Eve
TSX Composite up 2.79% since Christmas Eve
Merry Christmas, Appraiser. Really. I’m not being sarcastic (well, not much).
Appraiser
at 9:06 am
If only you could live inside a stock portfolio or rent it out to some deserving soul.
Such volatility must be stressful.
Chris
at 11:58 am
Once again, we’ve already talked about this, appraiser.
“Stocks pay cash dividends and housing pays ‘in kind,’ in the form of housing services”
– Robert Shiller
Anyways, is this really what the commentary here is going to devolve into? Just posting the day’s stock market movements?
Blog Guy
at 7:54 pm
“Such volatility must be stressful.”
Not at all. I don’t need one cent of my (modest) stock/bond portfolio for at least a couple of decades. Ditto my house. Their current value therefore means nothing to me.
But then, you knew that already, didn’t you, Appraiser?
Moonbeam!
at 6:37 am
Happy Holidays David, to you and your family! and to your staff and team members! and happy holidays to your TRB readers! David it’s always a pleasure to read your posts, and to enjoy your Pick5 on Fridays. Informative and entertaining, and I love the comments!
Looking forward to more in 2019!
Condodweller
at 7:47 pm
Happy continued holidays David and family and the rest of the regulars.
I’ll do my best to keep you honest but I trust you have thicker skin than to shed any tears over what I say 🙂
Appraiser
at 10:09 am
TREB data for December out today. Average sale price (+2.1%) year over year. That’s 7 months in a row that prices are ahead of 2017. Looks like a trend, walks like a trend…
New listings down 31.5%, active listings down 11.6%.
With continiued ultra-low inventory (1.9 months) in the six, there is very little downward price pressure.
Chris
at 10:22 am
2018 saw sales down 16.1%, prices down 4.3%.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-04/toronto-vancouver-housing-sales-plummet-to-decade-lows-in-2018
Appraiser
at 10:58 am
Textbook soft landing after a mild correction.
Chris
at 3:07 pm
“…there is not one single verifiable instance of a soft landing…”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soft_landing_(economics)
Appraiser
at 3:11 pm
You already witnessed one.
Chris
at 3:49 pm
Perhaps. Maybe this is the first recorded instance of a soft landing? That would be quite something.
Or maybe the decline isn’t over yet. And soft landings will continue to be a myth, as they have been throughout economic history.
Appraiser
at 1:03 pm
“Expecting higher rates in 2019? Don’t bet on it just yet”
“We’ve moved from two hikes in Canada to not even one,” Pollick said, “and from two hikes in the U.S. to cuts.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/interest-rate-hikes-1.4964689
Chris
at 1:25 pm
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html/
Currently a 69.5% probability that rates remain where they are in December, 2019, and a much higher chance of no movement before that FOMC meeting. Seems to fly in the face of this prediction that the US will be cutting rates in 2019.
Plus, if the economic data starts to warrant cuts, hardly seems like a positive environment for real estate.
Appraiser
at 3:44 pm
It’s always a positive environment for real estate – if you think long-term.
Chris
at 5:37 pm
Inflation is such that it’s always a positive environment for most assets long-term.
Not overly compelling if that’s what you’re leaning on to make your point.