That was a very interesting exercise on Wednesday!
Thank you to all the readers who took part. I’m sure we’ll continue to see votes, predictions, and opinions roll in, and I will be sure to catalogue those dates and prices so we can come back to this in a few months or years.
Of course, we only looked at the GTA average home price, and whereas many want to cast the net much wider and focus on Canada, others want one of those tiny nets that our kids use, without success, to catch butterflies. That is to say that people want to know what’s happening in the 416, and some just want to know what’s happening in the central core.
So let’s look at a lot of data today!
Those who love stats will have a field day whereas those who like MLS Musings will skim to the bottom to convince themselves they read this. 🙂
What we want to know is:
-Where/when was market bottom?
-What was the largest peak-to-trough move as a percentage?
-Where are we today based on that market peak in February of 2022?
Let’s look at each TRREB district as well as the 416 and 905 property types.
Starting with the GTA average home price, we all know that the peak took place in February.
The trough took place in January, from which we have recovered.
But the chart looks like this:
Get used to seeing that huge hump in the middle, and as with most regions, the trough is noticeable in the last few months.
Using the overall market peak of February, 2022, we see a 17.9% decline based on last month’s data:
The decline in Peel Region wasn’t nearly as steep as the GTA average, and perhaps as a result, the peak-to-trough wasn’t as bad:
“Only” 24.8%, compared to 26.0% for the GTA average.
However, the trough took place in December as opposed to January:
With a two-month recovery, the decline now sits at 21.6%:
Durham Region was perhaps hit the hardest by the decline, which was almost 30%:
The chart shows a far steeper drop in 2022; actually the steepest:
Durham has recovered the least of all five major TRREB regions:
Halton saw a very large decline in peak-to-trough:
However, the chart shows a recovery that, like the GTA average and the 416, has surpassed the peak last fall:
The recovery isn’t substantial, overall though:
York Region saw the smallest peak-to-trough at only 20.2%:
The decline last year was sharp, but not as much as Durham Region:
Currently, the market has recovered somewhat, but not nearly as much as the 416:
Last, but not least, we get to Toronto (416).
The peak-to-trough was the second-lowest:
And look at the chart!
It’s, by far, the most volatile and seasonal, and I have to think that’s because of all the luxury homes that don’t sell off-season.
But the recovery has been substantial with the average price only down 11.5% from last February’s market peak. Looking at the actual individual peak for the 416, that figure would be slightly higher:
Now, as for property types, I figured we could look at the 416 versus the 905.
Starting with detached:
The 416 detached market has recovered substantially compared to the 905 so far this year as you can see at the tail end of the chart.
The ascent in the 905 detached price actually began, relative to the 416, in 2021. In fact, there was a point where the two prices drew pretty close in December of that year.
As we move into March and April, expect the 416 uptick to continue dramatically. It won’t come close to surpassing the $2,000,000 mark, but I believe the ascent has only begun.
As for move from our February 2022 peak to current:
Here’s the semi-detached comparison:
As with the detached segment, the 416 has shot up like a rocket so far in 2023, but the 905 remains flat.
The crazy thing is: I can’t find a single house in the central core that’s “down” by the percentages we’re talking here, so I just don’t understand this data.
Nevertheless, the peak-to-current figures look a lot like they do above for detached:
Condos is where things get really interesting or really boring, depending on how you look at it:
These lines almost move in tandem. But it’s our peak-to-current that speaks volumes:
On paper, the 416 and the 905 are “down” an identical amount from their respective peaks.
Is there a semi-detached house out there that would sell for 17.2% less today than in February of last year? I really doubt it.
But when it comes to condos, I can see these figures holding weight.
I had a few condo listings in Jan/Feb/March of 2022 that just went berzerk. One comes to mind on Richmond Street: I sold it for $940,000 and I could see it getting fetching 12.4% less today, absolutely.
Then again, there are some condos selling that I feel are only 2-3% below what they might have sold for last year.
And if a Durham, Peel, York, or Halton agent wants to make the same argument in their neighbourhood, or farm area, or favourite condominium, I’m all ears.
Alright, that was a lot of statistics for one week!
Thanks again to the readers for commenting on Wednesday’s blog, and for those that haven’t, well, there’s no reason you can’t go back and do it now.
Have a great weekend, everybody!